What the Fed JUST Said.

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파월 연준의장 발언을 긍정적으로 해석. 노동시장이 팬데믹 이전 수준으로 냉각되어 '완전한 균형'에 가깝고, 금리인하 방향으로 설정 중이라고 봄. 9월 금리인하 확률 약 74%, 11월 이후 25bp씩 연속 인하 전망. CPI·PPI 완화 기대. 테슬라 콜옵션 보유 및 295 목표 상승을 주장. 연준 발언 전반은 비둘기파적으로 평가.

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01. what did Jerome Powell just say uh nothing unusual in fact this is fantastic news and I will break down exactly what he did say but what we heard today was just fantastic news for potentially the stock market rally just continuing mostly because think about the Catalyst that we have this week tomorrow we have the FED speaking in the house today was the Senate I mostly expect we're going to get exactly the same kind of discussion we had today tomorrow so really you don't really have a negative Catalyst tomorrow the next Catalyst the market is really going to pay attention to are CPI release figures on Thursday morning 711 that's going to be with an expectation month over month of 0.1 core month over month.

02. 2 year-over-year 3.1% and year-over-year core 3.4% uh so that'll be Thursday Friday we'll get our data on PPI so for PPI we're going to be look looking at uh 0.1 on the month over Monon 2 on the month over Monon core uh as well as forx trade and then a final demand year-over-year 2.3 year-over-year core 2.5 so we're expecting sort of soft inflationary data Thursday and Friday and that's really what jpow here highlighted we got fed Bingo literally on him being asked what he thinks about the potential that he's going to get fired which was really just sort of clutch in terms of all right classic way to get fed Bingo but here are the basic bottom lines of what we heard today the labor market has cooled considerably back to pre-pandemic levels that and along with the quote that the labor market now seems to be quote fully Back in Balance it's really interesting I haven't actually heard jpow tell us that the market is now or the labor market is now fully Back in Balance I thought that was actually somewhat useful and uh interesting to listen to because it suggests that their work on the labor market is basically done see I'm trying to give you what's different here and I haven't heard that one before in my opinion that's bullish and it's slowly setting up for rate Cuts if we were to expect a July rate cut we would have had to have seed planting now the most seed planting we got was from Nick T at the Wall Street Journal and it was just his speculation there were no quotes from the fed or implications that the FED cared and we know last week when J was talking to Sarah eizen that uh we didn't get any kind of indications of rate Cuts coming and in fact today we literally wrote down when we were playing fed Bingo which is on screen right here we wrote down does not suggest when it will be appropriate to cut we even said no hint of July cut both of those ended up being true on fed Bingo not a surprise though no hints here on a cut means we're really not setting up for a July cut so unless something weird happens even if we get a soft uh CPI or PPI report this week I really don't suspect we're going to end up seeing any kind of potential for a July cut it's just not likely even with a good uh inflation read now uh keep in mind Thursday Friday are the inflation reads I want to look at the world interest rate probability what's up dude you just spawned in out of nowhere bro uh World interest rate probability so the probability right now per the market uh Jack what number is that what's the probability of a rate cut in September tell the Mike 0 0.745 all right perfect so about 74% chance of getting a rate cut uh how about November what do we got for November what's that number right there 1.88 okay good job and then what about uh December 1.9 seven8 good job dude all right perfect that's the market implied uh trajectory right now of rate Cuts uh I do want to quickly uh before we hit some of the other things that J pal mentioned just really really I have to do this I have to do this I have to shout out that freaking rally in Tesla let's go what direction are those mountains going buddy it's up and it's going at 20 it's going up that's what we want to hear high five right here let's go right after JP's done talking but you started seeing this move right after after I think honestly we're clearing the path here to go into 295 I moved to a different strike price I took a few tendies on some call options that I had but just this morning I opened a few positions if you're not part of the stocks and sight group yet where you could get profit but we tried to uh this is just an example of my Tesla call we opened this one during the meeting uh and uh this one I think we opened yesterday or whatever the day before anyway I closed both of those to move to a different strike so let's go thank you so much JP make sure you're part of the stocks group again not every trade aler is something you should copy can't guarantee you should make money uh definitely there are times that there there are down trades so keep that in mind there's always a risk with trading but uh most importantly you want to look at how can Trends affect your trading portfolio and what can you do with them okay perfect so let's take a look at some of the other things we heard from Jal meetkevin.com by the way uh for those courses on building your wealth uh stocks and sight comes with the trade alerts all of them come with the courses uh the course member live streams Okay so as far as uh rate hikes again reiterated no likely uh rate Rises instead the more likely path is rate Cuts something I haven't heard him talk about before was that the U uh the FED talked about how they issued a cease and assist on uh evolve bank which if you remember they're involved with the whole yada disaster with synapse we also by Jack uh we uh a lot of a lot of the similar regular discussion about what we've heard regarding supply and demand shocks what caused inflation that's not a big deal uh one negative line was we heard quote do you agree any deviation from 2% inflation should be addressed now J pal said absolutely which was a little bit more hawkish but something to keep in mind is JP Morgan's AI model on Powell's discussion indicated that he was quote slightly less hawkish than usual uh that's really because I think that's he's starting to transition into we're about to go into a cutting regime it's probably to be November December although you did have a lot ofl you did have at least one politician who aggressively tried to argue that drum Powell should not cut before the election because it would appear political well guess what he's probably not going to cut before the election because guess when the November fed meeting is two days after the election yeah November 7th how convenient don't worry we won't be cutting before the election we'll cut right after the election uh Leisure Hospitality I thought it was interesting he mentioned that uh you would expect a Slowdown in Leisure hospit Leisure and Hospitality hiring since they were so behind that they finally caught up and he also mentioned that you'd uh rather see uh uh you know Dr job broad-based job creation so far we've had sort of this narrowing in job creation in the market and that's not super good uh and so they're acutely aware of that which is also dovish uh he shut down the idea that corporate greed caused inflation talks more about supply and demand IM balances which is the economic answer he also shut down the idea that corporate uh like corporations uh you know unfairly boost housing prices instead he suggested look it's you know they're they're a legal buyer of homes they're really a small percentage of home buyers it's a small issue and his job is the whole economy uh he also said that this was an interesting line that I thought was pretty doish he said quote we see even more risk today than we saw in March regarding unemployment and the labor market weakening for a long time we feared the greater risk was not being able to meet our inflation Target now there's a greater balance between the two but he also said there was a greater balance between the two in March the difference is now we saying we see more risk today than we saw in March about the labor market so again more of a dovish pow here as far as immigration I think he gave a fair economic Point here he says in the long run immigration probably doesn't affect inflation however in the short run immigration ironically might help inflation because you have more labor which could reduce wages and reduce the pressure on let's say Services cost now obviously that's not necessarily sort of the uh American answer the American answer given by JD Vance which is of course the political answer uh was oh well you know wouldn't we want wages to go up so Americans can make more money yes that's the American politician answer yes that's what people want to hear uh but is that actually uh better for inflation no of course not uh so this these were very fair question or answers here by JP uh and of course we need more good inflation data which a lot of folks expect we're going to get this week uh in fact a lot of folks are looking and saying hey you know what uh you might want to hedge uh these inflation reports because we expect them to come in so low maybe you want to hedge and go short because if they come in hot the market could be caught flat footed I don't know I'm not I don't think I'm going to hedge CPI I mean if we had a really bad CPI report I'll just buy puts at 6:30 in the morning and and ride the trend but I don't I don't think I'm going to you know pay the premiums to hedge going into CPI I'm usually not an event-based Trader though unless it's jpow honestly like I feel like I could read jpow like a freaking B at this point and I'm not trying to like suggest some overconfidence here I just think my hours in on analyzing this guy uh are are are very very high uh and again that doesn't mean we're always right but uh I think it's pretty easy to trade J palal frankly uh I think it's again crystal clear right now that we're probably going to get a rapid rate decline regime starting in November my crystal ball today would say we're looking at 25 bips in November uh and then every single meeting there after 25 bips uh so that way uh you're probably down I mean how many fed meetings you have eight plus November December 10 by the end of 25 You' be down potentially as much as 2 and a half% would be my take now that's not the fed's projection uh fomc schedule let me see here because I want to look at their projection their projection wait let me guess their projection is probably 4% my projection at three at 2 and A2 coming down would be 5 and quarter would be closer to like 3% on average right they're probably at 4% for next year they are yeah they're at 4.1 for next year so I I personally think we're going to get more rate Cuts than that and we'll get sort of a consistent 25 25 25 25 I don't think we're going to get any like you know 50 basis point Cuts or whatever uh but what I will say is um you know if you don't yet already follow me on uh X make sure you follow me there because I've been yapping about this uh uh not only ascending alerts on the calls that I've been buying but I've also been yapping on X uh Tesla stock is about to test the 258 level if it breaks 258 which I think it will 295 is the next easy stop for Tesla so check that out I've also got some calls printing right now I'm up 21% on 23% I'm sorry on $90,000 worth of calls I just bought like 20 minutes ago so let's go again I send those alerts to everybody in the stocks and site group no guarantees you got to look at the signal and decide do I agree and disagree what you do with your portfolio is totally up to you it's not designed to copy it's just designed to be uh an indicator of kind of where Kevin's head is and emotion is and sometimes they're wrong like I I really thought Nvidia would be rallying more right here it's a little flat right now I'm surprised Nvidia is not picking up a little bit uh but that's okay my Tesla tendies are way offsetting my move on uh Nvidia anyway thank you so much for watching uh as always let's go ahead and we're going to play the good old disclaimer just close the door exactly uh and appreciate y'all want to be part of an exclusive Mastermind think about even having a one-on-one option there not not sure yet so TBD but anyway uh let's go ahead and play this thank you so much overall I'd say bullish on the FED here kind of expect uh some happiness over the next uh 24 hours and if we get a bullish CPI PPI read honestly just up from there in my opinion eventually we will get bad data which could be earnings coming up and that will drive markets down we are due for a correction in markets I'm not Tom Lee Perma here okay I'm Mr flipflop get it right never forget it esla keeps going let's go by marles we're going to 295 baby let's go see you cay