저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2023년 주식시장이 현금 대기 자금 때문에 소외됐던 만큼 2024년 자금 유입 여지가 크고, 인플레이션 기대 하락과 Goldman의 성장 전망 상향으로 금리 인하 기대가 강하다고 주장. 다만 고용 둔화 및 후티 공격에 따른 에너지 리스크는 존재한다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, this is Kevin. This is really interesting. Look at this. This is one of the posts I just made on eHack. If you haven't heard of it yet, go to ehack.com. This is where we publish our research. But look at this. And it's completely free, and it will always be completely free. This is my promise.
ehack.com. But look at this. Investors rushed into cash en masse. Money market funds have seen record cash inflows this year. And as you can see, the blue bars here represent inflows into the money markets. But here's the most interesting thing. Listen here. Goldman Sachs estimates that $ 95 billion will flow into US stocks in 2023 .
So the comparison I made here is that Elon Musk sold about $24 billion worth of Tesla stock in 2022 . The stock market barely gained four times as much in 2023. So, the entire US stock market in 2023 gained only four times more than Elon sold in 2022. Of course, this means either that Elon sold too much or that there is little money coming into the market.
The reality is that it's probably a combination of both factors. Elon really sold a lot. In fact, it was very difficult for people to invest new money in the stock market, because why would they do it with so much uncertainty. Russia, Ukraine, Israel, inflation. Is it decreasing? Will it go up again ?
Is it 1974 again? And are we just heading towards the emergence of a new Paul Walker? Of course, my thesis is no, because then we abandoned the gold standard. We have lifted price restrictions. We had a terrible How would you say it? Monetary policy management after the abandonment of the gold standard.
And I'm not saying that monetary and fiscal policy are better today, okay ? There is a lot there that leaves much to be desired . It's just that the conditions today are practically the opposite of those we faced back then. The conditions then were such that inflation expectations were skyrocketing because people had no faith in the government or our monetary policy.
Today, at least there is some trust. Again , I'm not saying it's high, and I'm not here to praise the government or the Fed . I'm simply saying that inflation expectations are very low, both according to bond market estimates and sentiment surveys. Inflation expectations briefly rose after the events in Israel , but have since fallen sharply.
In fact, if we look, for example, at the five-year breakeven point, which is the bond market's expectations for inflation—forget about consumers or individuals—it's about 2.2%. Yes, they have increased a bit due to tensions off the coast of Yemen, but we are still close to annual lows. Why? Because yes, although oil prices have started to rise a little and there are concerns about trade that we will see temporary inflation spikes in the headlines due to tensions in the Middle East pushing oil prices up again.
The big picture is that there are many justifications for why no one wanted to invest in stocks in 2023, as there were so many uncertainties. And uncertainties still exist. And 2024 is an election year, so you also have these uncertainties. But think about this for a moment. Let's put all this aside for a minute.
Think about this. These money market rates, as interest rates fall, will also fall. At the same time, as these rates come down, we'll see people looking back and saying, "What was the stock market doing in 2023?" For people who were not consistently involved in the stock market in 2023 . And what they'll see is, "Oh my god, how did the Nasdaq 100 go up 53% in 2023?" How did Tesla grow 137% since the beginning of the year?
Coinbase shares are up 341% year-to- date. Microsoft—54%, Apple since the beginning of the year—55%. The point is that staying out of the stock market in 2023 was actually very punishing. And with a record amount of cash on hand, there is a strong argument that as long as inflation continues to decline, that money will be channeled into stocks in 2024.
4. And that makes Goldman Sachs say, "Well, until we ...let me tell you what Goldman Sachs said in a moment." I just want to say that all of this is based on the absence of a shock that would lead to higher unemployment. Because if we have an unemployment shock, we are likely to be more inclined towards recession.
And there are risks that employment is now heavily skewed towards government, healthcare, and education, where there is also a lot of public sector in healthcare. So you 're in the late-cycle of employment growth , which is not good, as we wonder how long this will be sustainable. And if these gains disappear, will we potentially move to negative job growth, which is bad?
This is an indicator of recession, which potentially self-actualizes into further unemployment. The cycle of doom. One cycle of layoffs leads to more and more layoffs. Fortunately, we have supposedly left most of the layoffs behind us. So let's hope we do n't move in that direction. We hope that the worst is behind us.
But the risk still exists. But Goldman says here: " Look at global inflation trends." Global inflation trends on an annualized month-on-month basis based on core indicators, note, and on an annualized basis over the three months have fallen sharply. But they didn't just fall, if you look at them more closely, you'll see that global inflation over the last three months is only 2.2% year-on-year.
This is actually a target of 2% . And for November—only 1.3%. To be fair , if you dig a little deeper and look at what JP Morgan said to Ralli this morning, he said, "Hey, we have to be careful because super-core inflation is still a little too high." The average super-core inflation rate over the past 3 months, which excludes housing and the housing disinflation we are seeing, and which is also a very volatile indicator, is holding higher, closer to 4–5% year-on-year.
And while it's true, something to keep an eye on, the overall trend is downward. That's why in the Catalysts section, if you go to E-Hack to Catalysts, I talk about multivariate base inflation. Here you can exclude housing and look only at services excluding housing. If you look at the United States and this trend, you can see that, despite the volatility, the red trend line is clearly going down.
So, of course, if you haven't watched E-Hack yet, be sure to visit ehack.com. You can also see other updates about Tesla and other news there. But these are very interesting charts from Goldman Sachs, and they explain why Goldman is so bullish on the growth of risk assets that they have raised their S&P 500 price target by 9% in just the last 4 weeks.
Keep in mind, they are only considering three rate reductions. They believe we will get three rate cuts in March, May and June of 25 basis points each, effectively three consecutive cuts, but they believe the Fed will stop there and take a pause. And the reason they think the Fed will stop and take a break is because the growth trajectory that Goldman is projecting is significantly higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast.
Most banks and economists believe growth will only be around 0.7%, while Goldman says, “No, we think growth in 2024 will actually be 2%.” Which is actually very important for US stock returns. It's that you have growth. Now, another thing we could or should pay attention to is the probability of five rate cuts.
This would lead to a reduction in rates to 4–4.25%. The probability of reaching this level by December 2024 , based on what the market is factoring in now. Five rate cuts. Ready for this? 87.3%. Yes. So, the market is almost fully pricing in five rate cuts. Goldman offers three, but only because they believe earnings will be higher and the economy stronger .
Unfortunately, you know, I want to be objective . And unfortunately, there's not much pessimism worth talking about right now. The biggest reason for pessimism is what is happening with the Houthis. So, to spice up this video, I just want to direct you to ehak.com, where, you know, I think I had a whole piece on this yesterday.
Here he is. Houthi attacks are intensifying. This is very serious. You can read about all of this again at ehak.com. It's completely free. I don't make money from this. This is just a great tool. I like him. It's a great tool for us too, because all our thoughts are gathered in one place. So we use it as a team tool, but we thought it would be worth sharing it with the community.
But, in any case, why is this important? Why do Houthi attacks here, in this strait 18 miles wide at its narrowest point, matter? It is easy to carry out attacks from here. We have American destroyers in the region that shoot down drones and participate in protecting shipping lanes. But that still has n't stopped BP, which says things like, " You know what?" We will simply sail around Africa, which increases shipping time and increases costs.
That's why shipping companies like Zim or Maersk are going up in stock, because they're saying, "Well, they'll just pass the cost on to the consumer, " which is an inflationary factor, or to their customers. But, in any case, if you look here, about 12% of seaborne oil trade and 8% of liquefied natural gas pass through this zone.
This is a significant part of the energy market passing through this region. While this may not be a supply issue for everything like the Strait of Hormuz, it does raise concerns about energy prices. And so, at least recently, we've been seeing it through trade. Rabobank had the thesis that if the United States stopped defending the area, the situation could deteriorate significantly.
They are right. The situation could get worse if the US stops defending here, but the US knows this and I wouldn't be surprised if you see increased defenses in the area. In fact, there is talk that the United States will allow Australia to send warships to the region to help protect this shipping lane.
So, we'll see, but this will be something that everyone will be paying attention to in the near future. Anyway, thanks for watching. I have to run for a big inspection, see you soon. , dude. know your opinion. Whil future a securities evaluation .
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