저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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ARK의 Cathie Wood가 테슬라 주가 하락 후 장기 성장 전망을 강조. 2023년 테슬라 인도량 약 160만대 예측, 매출 성장률 연 24% 예상, 자동차 부문 매출총이익률 상승 전망. 금리 인상으로 2022년 혁신주가 부진했으나 금리 하락 시 회복 기대. 테슬라 보험·FSD 사업 가치 저평가 주장. 단기 가격 인하 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
talk about EVS yes and not just Tesla yes is it good news for Tesla what's happening in Detroit right now um yes because if there's a strike of course uh there will be more production shortfalls um you know I think that there's just now the the supply chain has freed up so unfortunately we'll have all kinds of questions about that but you know I don't I don't think it has anything really to do with the strike it has uh everything to do with a consumer preference shift towards better Vehicles electric uh that are falling in price Tesla's leading that uh that price decline simply by passing cost declines on to its uh customers uh so I think that's what's good for Tesla the complaint we hear is that people can't afford these vehicles uh that weang in the UK as you can see rishy sunac is pushing back targets to get rid of all of these internal combustion engines to 2035 from 2030 are we being unrealistic about this transition and how this is going to be no no no we do not think so we actually the total cost of ownership now this is in the United States it's a little bit different here but the total cost of ownership of an electric vehicle uh fell below that of a gas powered vehicle about two to three years ago soon sticker prices is that includ insurance yes includes Insurance yes in as I said local differences but yes in the United States that does include insurance and in fact Tesla is so sure that uh its cars will have fewer accidents and fewer fatalities that it's well willing to provide insurance so yes that does include everything all in you were USC you didn't get a B laugher called up Robert Kirby a capital group and said just shut up and hire her so you walk into Capital Group which is the land of an R square to 98 Washington Mutual Fund Investment Company of America everything is complet completely Diversified out you're the polar extreme they threw you out you almost fell into the Pacific Ocean they were so upset with you so you go out and you say I'm not going tight R squar to SPX I'm going out and do my own thing yes people have prospered off of innovation and Technology how does that continue in America can you be less Diversified and win 5 years out well you mentioned Capital group and that is where I did start my career and that is where um I saw tremendous research and a long-term time Horizon so really what we're doing with Arc is just going back to the future my initial experience which was in the late 70s when I was in college and uh we're doing deep research first principles based white sheet of paper but you're away from an our square like Washington Mutual or the other funds what's your our squared right now uh to be honest we're the correlation of our uh performance to broad-based benchmarks is very low uh For Better or Worse what it tells what it tells our clients and perspective clients is we we have a very good diversification strategy our our funds the active weight if you're comparing to msci world or S&P or NASDAQ the active weight is less than 5% so really good diversification strategy focused on companies uh that are going to transform the way the world Works uh we look at the broad-based benchmarks and sure there are companies that are sustaining Innovation like an apple but they are not going to transform the way the world works from here our companies are we we've always invested for the long term and uh what interrupted what was a very nice move up in Innovation stocks especially disruptive innovation was a massive increase in interest rates the likes of which we have never 24f increase so all long duration assets especially in 2022 were destroyed including bonds which are usually a flight to safety they had their worst year last year since the 1700s there's no way in that environment that our strategy would have done well but I do think that what's happening this year is that the market is starting to look over the fed's moves whether there's one more or not uh in to uh falling interest rates you know we started underperforming in 21 just with the anticipation of rising rates and even more so in 22 so how are you going to change I want to know how you're going to change the sobering quarters you've been through what is the new Kathy Wood approach to macroeconomics frankly pandemic economics intruding on your belief in Innovation uh if anything Innovation gains traction during tough times and if you look at how the reason our our portfolios are outperforming this year is and they are and they are is it is because they are gaining share in what is becoming a difficult environment right and so uh one by one we're going to earn our way back and it's all about Revenue growth margin expansion in the Wall Street Journal they do a fabulous thing with old farts like me and it's people with over $5 million in they believed in Kathy Wood to a person those retirees bought Innovation they bought Tech they bought apple apple apple apple and they didn't listen to financial TV or radio can you do the cathywood approach for one three five years given the volatility you've seen yes I think we're on the other side of that massive interest rate increase which did destroy a lot of performance that's the most important thing and we we are ready for Prime Time many people are concerned about our kind of strategy and uh and uh the company would just acquired Rises because in Europe in London here uh for all of Europe and UK uh uh they're focused on global Mega Trends as well and you know interest rates hurt everyone in that space if we are right uh and rates are going to come down at some point in the next year you know there the market is a discounting mechanism uh then uh I think that uh the muscle memory that that hurt our strategy and it all has everything to do with the tech and Telecom bust and people thinking oh my gosh are we here again no what happened during the 20 years that ended in the teeken Telecom bubble is the seeds for for what is happening now were planted and a great year so while Tesla is shifting into a slower growth mode the growth is still there and the stock is is at a reasonable price right now I think this is well Sue while Tesla is shifting into a slower growth mode the growth is still there and the stock is at a reasonable price right now I think this is what makes it more appealing the stock is much more affordable which means that if you buy the stock right now and if everything goes as planned for Tesla the amount of return you could make by buying the stock right now is much more as a lot higher than what it would have been if you bought this stock say 12 months before so the stock is at very a very reasonable price right now you know a lot and a lot of the businesses like the full self-driving and potentially growth of the insurance are being heavily discounted as well as future cost savings that management can still Implement as it ramps up Factory and as it accused its 2020 battery day goals that will still drive margins higher so I expect proper growth in excess or Revenue growth even if Revenue growth is more in the high teams over the next 10 years instead of management 50% Target so we see a lot of upside of the stock at current price show Mia stock the way what's interesting is yes they did miss their targets their own internal targets to deliver more than 50 growth 50% growth in terms of deliveries last quarter and they missed it they've got in but 40 is still strong so we need to have more clarity more real sort of basic analysis and future guidance coming from Tesla so we can get our sites a little bit more realistically yeah I think that certainly would help management just for saying that we expect to grow 50% year-over-year in deliveries over a multi-year period Horizon does not really help with year-to-year guidance especially as Tesla is now big enough to start seeing a demand impact from an economic slowdown you know now that they've noticed they're out 1.3 million Vehicles annually they're going to start to see some consumers who may want to hold off on that next big ticket item and then wait till the next year so while we're in a Slowdown so you know I think management guidance and more sort of confidence that can give us around spefic specific targets and numbers from year to year basis would certainly help the stock because I think right now what the investors are searching for is the right growth rate with high growth stocks like Tesla even small changes in a growth rate assumptions can materially change your evaluation for the stock yeah I mean talk to us about incentives that will be having to be dangled in front of a US buyer is that a warrior is that a shining of a light on a fact that the price point is going to have to change we do think there's going to be some small price Cuts as Tesla is going to want to make sure that many of its Vehicles as possible specifically some model 3s and model West will ultimately qualify for the inflation reduction tax credited and heading into an economic slowdown I think that is going to be a way Tesla can generate strong demand growth so we are modeling some price decreases for that platform next year in this year to self-generate demand growth and that's going to help Tesla grow to what we are forecasting is a little over over 1.6 million deliveries in 2023 I think my point here is that just because Tesla said few years before that they're going to they're expecting 50% growth rate year toe over a multi-year horizon that's a a promise to make but in reality the reality often disappointing than the dreams and it's not just the reality it's the circumstances and the global economic snowdown you have to factor all of that in and factoring all of that in and think Tesla is still doing well it's not how it is in the Wall Street is that you make some promise you missed on that you see your stock down 20% next day so but is that the reality that is the reality so with all the daily sort of tussles that you get whether it's on social media or whether it's on air or whether it is about a percent is still a pretty good growth rate whether or not we should be looking at deliveries rather than the demand from your perspective what is the main thing that we should focus our rise on now when it comes to test is it China is it the deliveries is it the demand which side should you be looking for I think there are two key things that we should continue to focus on one is as we go into 2023 what will be the growth rate I still expect you said double- digigit growth rate I'm forcasting 24% gross next year in deliveries then what do the The Profit metrics look like if you remember back the first quarter of last year Z where it achieved nearly a 30% gross margin in the automotive segment and that was before the opening of the factories of Berlin and Austin as F and as factories Productions ramp up I do expect the gross margins to go higher and the margins will improve sequentially and so if that's and a couple of days before Kathy would bought Tesla stock on the day of its biggest PL since September 2020 reaffirming her conviction in the electric vehicle maker and that many other investors have gone into and the funds backed by Cathy's firm Arc Investment Management bought more then 176,000 shares of the automaker in the first US trading session of the Year according to arc's daily data the purchase came as a Tesla stock plunged 12% of the company after the company missed estimates for the quarterly deliveries despite offering Hefty incentives cathywood exchange traded fund have acquired slightly more than 938 the zero shares of the Eevee maker since October 3 Rd and when they started the latest buying streak according to Arc trading data compiled by Bloomberg and after Tuesday's fault Tesla has is down 65% over last year due to the concerns including Rising interest rates and inflation Weighing on the demand for electric vehicles so that's it guys from here today thank you so much for watching please hit the like button it really helps me a lot and do subscribe if you haven't already thank you so much for watching guys I hope you all have a great day and a great year ahead T makes it more appealing the stock is much more affordable which means that if you buy the stock right now and if every everything goes as planned for Tesla the amount of return you could make by buying the stock right now is much more is a lot higher than what it would have been if you bought this stocks say 12 months before so the stock is at very a very reasonable price right now you know a lot and lot of the businesses like the full self-driving and potentially growth of the insurance are being heavily discounted as well as future cost savings that management can still Implement as it ramps up Factory and as it accused its 2 20 battery day goals that will still drive margins higher so I expect proper growth in excess or Revenue growth even if Revenue growth is more and the high teams over the next 10 years instead of management 50% Target so we see a lot of upside of the stock at current price show M stock the way what's interesting is yes they did miss their targets their own internal targets to deliver more than 50 growth 50% growth in terms of deliveries last quarter and they missed it they've got in in but 40 is still strong so we need to have more clarity more real sort of basic analysis and future guidance coming from Tesla so we can get our sites a little bit more realistically yeah I think that certainly would help management just for saying that we expect to grow 50% year-over-year in deliveries over a multi-year period Horizon does not really help with year-to-year guidance especially is Tesla is now big enough to start seeing a demand impact from an economic slowdown you know now that they've noticed their out 1.3 million Vehicles annually they're going to start to see some consumers who may want to hold off on that next big ticket item and then wait till the next year so while we're in a Slowdown so you know I think management guidance and more sort of confidence that can give us around specific targets and numbers from year-to-year bases would certainly help the stock because I think right now what the investors are searching for is the right growth rate with high growth stocks like Tesla even small changes in a growth growth rate assumptions can materially change your evaluation for the stock yeah I mean talk to us about incentives that will be having to be dangled in front of a US buyer is that a warrior is that a shining of a light on a fact that the price point is going to have to change we do think there's going to be some small price Cuts as Tesla is going to be Sue want to make sure that many of its Vehicles as possible specifically some model 3s and model West will ultimately qualify for the inflation reduction tax credited and heading into to an economic slowdown I think that is going to be a way Tesla can generate strong demand growth so we are modeling some price decreases for that platform next year and this year to self-generate demand growth and that's going to help Tesla grow to what we are forecasting is a little over 1.6 million deliveries in 2023 I think my point here is that just because Tesla said few years before that they're going to they're expecting 50% growth rate year 2 over a multi-year horizon that's a promise to make but in reality the reality is often disappointing than the dreams and it's not just the reality it's the circumstances and the global economic snowdown you have to factor all of that in and factoring all of that and I think Tesla is still doing well it's not how it is in the Wall Street is it you make some promise you miss on that you see your stock down 20% next day so but is that the reality that is the reality so with all the daily sort of tussles that you get whether it's on social media or whether it's on air or whe it is about a percent is still a pretty good growth rate whether or not we should be looking at deliveries rather than the demand from your perspective what is the main thing that we should focus our rise on now when it comes to Tesla is it China is it the deliveries is it the demand which side should you be looking for I think there are two key things that we should continue to focus on one is as we go into 2023 what will be the growth rate I still expect you said double digigit growth rate I'm forecasting I'm forecasting 24% % gross next year in deliveries then what did the profit metrics look like if you remember back the first quarter of last year's Z where it achieved nearly a 30% gross margin in the automotive segment and that was before the opening of the factories of Berlin and Austin as eff and his factories Productions ramp up I do expect the gross margins to go higher and the margins will improve sequentially and so if that's and a couple of days before Cathy would bought Tesla stock on the day of its biggest PL since September 2020 reaffirming her conviction in the electric vehicle maker and that many other investors have gone into and the funds backed by Cathy's firm Arc Investment Management bought more than 176,000 shares of the automaker in the first US trading session of the Year according to ark's daily data the purchase came as a Tesla stock plunged 12% of the company after the company missed estimates for the quarterly deliveries despite offering Hefty incentives cathywood exchange traded fund have acquired slightly more than 938 the zero shares of the EV maker since October 3 Rd and when they started the latest buying streak according to Arc trading data compiled by Bloomberg and after Tuesday's fault Tesla has is down 65% over last year due to the concerns including Rising interest rate and inflation Weighing on the demand for electric vehicles so that's it guys from here today thank you so much for watching please hit the like button it really helps me a lot and do subscribe if you have already thank you so much for watching guys I hope you all have a great day ahead
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