저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
이란 공습(Operation Epic Fury)과 하메네이 사망 이후 지정학 리스크는 대체로 단기 매수 기회로 보며, 시장은 607선 부근. 3월 초 ISM·S&P PMI는 예상치를 상회했으나 고용 둔화 신호와 수출·주문 둔화 경고. 강세-약세 척도는 5.4~5.7로 상향, 고용지표 반등이 확인되면 6 이상 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Iran got attacked Saturday morning. Unless you've been living under a rock, you probably already know about that. In this video, I'm going to break down my opinion. I'm going to give you facts of what happened. Many of these you may already know, but then we're going to go into my opinion on what this means for the future of Iran, the future of the economy in the United States, and we'll also look at some reports that we got this morning, S&P's, PMI's, you name it.
Uh just to give you an update on exactly where my head is with this market. Now, I'd like to end the video with an update on the bear bull scale. So, if you've been looking for that, we will also provide an update on that. We will do it together. With all of that said, let's get started. Okay, so obviously Operation Epic Fury and a quote of the roar of the lion, the US and Israeli attack.
Uh and it was initiated Saturday morning between 8:00 and 9:00 a.m., which is really interesting because usually they conduct these operations at night, but I feel like Khamenei and others in Iran expected an operation at night and therefore were maybe sleeping in their bunkers at night. Kind of brilliant 4D chess move to attack in the morning hours as they're awaking from their bunkers.
Uh pretty wild and uh pretty cunning. But anyway, uh Trump, uh even though negotiations were starting to evolve to suggest that Iran was promising that they'd never ever have nuclear material and they're willing to give in, uh Donald Trump argued that the short-term threat is actually the Iranian ballistic missile system and therefore we needed to attack Iran.
Now, I'd like to be pretty clear here. How Donald Trump rearranged the goal post, in my opinion, doesn't really matter. Mostly because I don't believe the Iranians that they actually want a peaceful nuclear program, given that even if you have a peaceful nuclear program, some of the byproducts that you generate from nuclear enrichment can be utilized for weapons, and we don't want Iran to have weapons, and Iran really wants to have weapons.
Why? Because all their friends do. You have to understand this. China, Russia, and North Korea all have nukes. And guess who doesn't get attacked by the United States? China, North Korea, and Russia. Because they have nukes. Iran doesn't have nukes. Venezuela probably don't got any nukes. They're not supposed to have any nukes.
And as you can see, well, their leaders got eliminated. They got exited. But anyway, in addition to this, you have to understand that Iran has around 400 kg of highly enriched nuclear capable uranium somewhere. Now, it's likely that they've moved this to the untouched pickaxe mountain facility, which is a deeper facility than Fordow and the others that we struck.
We might not actually have bunker busting bombs that go deep enough for that facility. And so, that nuclear material has gone missing. And that's because previously we tracked it with UN weapons inspectors, which of course right before the strikes last summer, Iran's like, all right, fine. If y'all are going to attack us, we're done with weapons inspectors.
So, anyway, we could talk about the chicken or the egg and the Iran nuclear deal of 2018 and Donald Trump tearing it up in the worst deal ever, blah, blah, blah, all this stuff. We could talk about that really in a different video. What matters more now is where we are now and going forward. And so, obviously Donald Trump is expecting this incursion into Iran to last potentially for weeks.
We have had multiple American casualties now with at least three Americans dead. Apparently also fighter jets being shot down through friendly fire over Kuwait, which is quite odd and a little oopsie doopsies. But, Europe did not participate. This is mostly a US and Israeli operation and only Canada and the United Kingdom have come out in support of this.
Europe's been pretty quiet and you've seen China and Russia obviously counter and say that this is unacceptable and a violation of Iran's sovereignty. Again, the hunting down of four that 400 kg of highly enriched uranium, I think was the true motivation here because they were getting relatively close to being able to utilize that and maybe they had already progressed with that.
The Washington Post has been reporting they've actually had reporters on the ground over there before this attack. They've been reporting continued development and activity at that Pickaxe Mountain facility. And so it does sort of stand in the face with this sort of negotiator saying, "Hey, yeah, we're going to stop any enriching." And it's like, "Okay, well, what what what's going on at Pickaxe Mountain?
You want to let us in? Well, you know." Anyway, so Khamenei is dead. You know, when we had the December-January protests in Iran, you had a lot of Iranians actually cheering death to Khamenei. He's gone now. There are obviously going to be a lot of people who are sad. Iran has 40 days of mourning. The guy was killed in his compound supposedly working in his office.
Iran now, per Donald Trump, is requesting renewed negotiations. Though, you do have the speaker of the parliament in Iran saying that they are going to get even with us and that we are going to be begging for mercy when they attack us. Obviously, we've had, you know, attacks. I wouldn't necessarily call them sleeper attacks.
I'd call them more like a radicalized attack like what we saw in Austin, Texas, which is absolutely terrible. Apparently, the guy pulled up to the bar after driving around the block three times in his SUV and just unloaded into the bar, killing at least three Americans, which is pretty terrible. This is on Sixth Street, as the Texans call it Dirty Six because it's sort of the college place to go like when you're, you know, barely legal, 18 to like 24.
That that's really the hangout there. And apparently, this Senegal naturalized citizen, from Senegal, naturalized citizen in the United States, carried out this wearing a property of Allah sweater right after obviously the strikes in Iran suggesting that this individual has been radicalized. Anyway, he began firing from his SUV window, then drove westbound, ends up getting out on 6th Street, shoots some more people, and ends up getting killed in the intersection.
If you've ever been to 6th Street, you know there that is like that place is crawling with cops. There are cops everywhere. Kind of a crazy place, but also probably not something that people expect that somebody's just going to start shooting from their driver's window. Pretty wild. That lingering cough is so annoying.
Uh anyway, something to know going back to Iran about Khamenei. And and this is this really gets into the future aspect of this. So, understand this a little bit regarding history. You might not have heard this because you know, in my opinion, that's by the way why you subscribe to this channel is just to get this perspective you don't get somewhere else.
Uh Khamenei, he actually came out of revolution, right? So, uh he was he's he's been a Shia cleric, and he's served since 1989. Uh he was actually the president of Iran from 1981 to '89, and then became the supreme leader. And in the Iranian Revolution, he was a revolutionary that opposed the Shah of Iran.
Uh and so, he sort of took over after the last Iranian Revolution, you know, some 40 to 50 years ago, which is pretty remarkable if you think about it because now the United States is trying to encourage a new revolution from the guy that took over from a revolution. At the same time, the previous son of Iran or Shah of Iran, who was deposed and then Khamenei took over, that previous Shah, his son is now saying, "Hey, here's an opportunity for us to bring the nation together.
The the military and police forces should all work together and unite this nation, bring it back together in a new revolution." So, it's kind of like a a two the 1989 revolution that put Khamenei in power. So, you got to be careful. When there are revolutions, we don't know what we're going to get. And that's really important because this Khamenei guy was a little bit of a nutcase.
Obviously, he supported Russia against Ukraine because he coordinates with Russia for selling them drone weapons. Uh they coordinate with each other economically. He obviously was super death to Israel, death to America, called for the destruction of Israel from the river to the sea, you know, all all that kind of stuff.
Now, what you And and and I mean that that could be painted in both directions, right? Some people say that from the river to the sea should be Israeli. Some people say from the river to the sea should be Palestinian. Okay, really different topic here, but the argument here is anything that the United States has wanted, this guy has pretty much been anti.
With the exception of the fact that he was actually pro privatizing some state-owned industries, which was interesting, like the telecoms. But maybe that's because he actually realized capitalism is better. But it doesn't really matter. The guy was super pro terrorism, pro supporting Hezbollah, the Houthis, that would be the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, who's also started firing rockets at Israel as well.
Bad guy. And he's also been heavily integrated with the IRGC ever since the revolution. He's kind of become the de facto leader over there. So, the fact that he's dead along with 40 Iranian officials now, like the defense minister, director of intelligence, and others, is a start, but it doesn't necessarily mean everything is good.
Especially since apparently someone's missile, we don't know whose, struck a girls elementary school that it killed somewhere around 85, potentially more, 93 injured. Videos have been verified to show the pink walls shattered. That school, by the way, was right next to an IRGC navy facility. So, it's possible that they just missed, but that's a little oopsie-doopsies that unfortunately killed a lot of innocent lives, but that's unfortunately what happens when there's war and geopolitical turmoil.
Iran has also counter-attacked and has started trying to strike 27 bases. Obviously, killed three soldiers, at least 400 missiles, 1,000 drones have been launched. They've really overwhelmed some of our defenses, and that's why we've seen airport hubs get shut down like in Dubai. People are stuck in Kuwait, people are stuck in Dubai.
High-rises have been struck, residential in Bahrain and Dubai. Dubai Airport, by the way, handles 92 million international travelers. That's 13 million more than London Heathrow. That's pretty crazy. It's a very busy airport hub. And then, of course, Iran is now choking the Strait of Hormuz leading Hormuz leading to oil spiking and this sort of this travel gridlock.
So, Iran is really going scorched earth here, which in the short term, obviously, creates inflationary pressure both from an oil point of view and from a you know, goods and supply point of view, which isn't great because it you know, we have enough inflationary pressure with tariffs. Now, what's next?
Well, my opinion here's the game plan, okay? You got a 50% shot that the regime survives as a military dictatorship. This is actually not great because it just means that just because you killed the head off, all these other heads kind of spawn back in like what is that called? A hydra or whatever. That doesn't actually mean we've solved anything.
It's kind of exactly the same thing that happened in Venezuela so far. We just get the lady that takes over and now all of a sudden it's like, "All right, cool. Are they actually going to like comply with us or are they just sort of like placating us until they build up their weapons?" Same thing could happen in Cuba.
Regime change by the United States never really ends well. And so, there's a 50% chance this really doesn't do anything and you still have this military power in Iran and it's still sort of a unified non-revolutionized country, which isn't great. Of course, the counter-argument is that, "Well, at least we set back their ballistic missile program and their nuke program.
There's a 30% chance of a revolution, but then again, we don't know who we're going to get. Now, if it is Donald Trump, Donald Trump makes it clear that uh you know, while the Iranian regime already has missiles capable of hitting Europe, not the United States, we don't know who's going to replace the current government.
So, Donald Trump says we killed everybody. Sorry. Like anybody who we wanted to potentially replace the current regime. Uh and then of course, worst case scenario is you get kind of like the Afghanistan collapse. Well, Afghanistan is pretty controlled by the Taliban now, but you really get a fragmentation of the country, maybe a 20% chance where local splinter cells take over and these local militias end up creating more fighting in the Middle East.
This is why Turkey and Egypt have been against this because you end up with uh a power struggle in the region and you end up getting a lot more uncertainty. Uh I you may not have known this, but in the days before this uh strike on um Iran, Pakistan actually declared war on Afghanistan to fight the Pakistan Taliban, which sit just over uh the um Durand Line, which was established back in 1893.
But anyway, that's 1,600 mile Durand Line. Afghanistan doesn't acknowledge it, Pakistan does, uh so does the international community acknowledge that line, and Pakistan is now conducting air strikes against Kabul and other parts in Afghanistan trying to strike the Taliban. Remember, the Taliban basically took over the country when we sort of left.
We left a giant vacuum in Afghanistan, their government collapsed, Taliban took over. Now you have an entire country that's a breeding ground for terrorism, which I suppose Iran was under Khamenei. Now the question is, is it still going to be or uh are we um are we up from here? And unfortunately, that's the part that remains to be seen.
Now, as far as [clears throat] the actual market, let me just give it to you straight, okay? This morning in the Alpha report, I was pretty damn blunt. I said, "Geopolitics are buy the dip. We're probably going to 607. We might go straight to 607 out of the gate." We did. We're at 607.92 with the time of this filming.
So, I know a lot of you made a lot of money on calls. Uh sometimes we'll play uh you know, day calls or weekly calls or whatever. We actually specifically called out for a weekly call. Uh and uh the data this morning was pretty good though. We have a lot of jobs reports coming. Uh we got uh overall ISM and S&P manufacturing, both of them beat.
You do have to pay attention though to this is the red flag. For every comment on hiring, there was 1.4 on reducing head counts. That was in the ISM manufacturing. You can see we did some analysis this morning on Axon and Intuit in the course member live stream. Uh and then over here, we do still have a sluggishly slowing, near stalling set of orders and exports solving with US manufacturing growth the weakest in 7 months.
So, it's still better than expected, but still slow and bad. So, where does this sort of leave us on the bull-bear scale? Well, honestly, uh you know, post tariffs um Supreme Court ruling, we were able to bump this up to five um Well, we moved We actually moved up to about 5.4. Uh and we know that some of them have been re-implemented, but those aren't going to be as durable in my opinion.
And actually, I I'm going to move this up to about a five Uh you know, we might even call it a 5.7. You know, now geopolit- the geopolitical issue is mostly behind us for now. Like, we know what's happening. We know what's coming. What really matters is what happens over the next few years. So, geopolitics will matter over the next years.
What matters now? Uh ADP employment on Wednesday, Challenger job reports on Thursday, and BLS on Friday. That matters to get us above a six. We want to see that continued rebound. So, we need need need need a continued rebound. Uh and and then all honestly, it's broadly bullish. Uh you know, if we can keep rebounding, that's broadly bullish.
And frankly, if we can keep going on um uh this um you know labor well I mean that's the rebound that's the labor recovery from December and we don't get any more of this private credit spillover. I'm actually broadly optimistic and uh historically geopolitics are buy the dip. That's what I said in the daily wealth.
If you don't have the daily wealth yet remember you can download the Meet Kevin app totally for free. Yesterday night I sent a daily wealth to everybody you didn't even have to be a paying member and I said this is a buy the dip. Uh and it was. So anyway thanks .
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