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all the US economic indicators are looking good these days the economy grew over the first two quarters of this year housing prices the stock market they're both up and even Moody has upgraded the US credit Outlook to stable from negative but at least one person is saying not so fast Peter Schiff is the head of the investment firm europacific Capital he is joining us now from Weston Connecticut good morning to you welcome to our program good morning and thanks for having me on so why do you believe that the US is headed for an economic disaster even worse than the one that we saw back in 2008 right well first of all I was also one of the few people to have accurately forecast the last disaster when the same people who are now saying everything is great are oblivious to an even greater disaster that is looming but you know you've talked about the US economy is doing well that's just according to the government but even if you look at their numbers we got the GDP numbers that came out uh yesterday and people are making a big deal that the economy grew at 1.7% which was better than estimates but if you recall uh in the first quarter of 2013 the government first estimated that the GDP grew at 25% but yesterday they revised that down to just 1.1 I Believe by the time they finish revising the second quarter numbers down it'll be close to zero in fact in order to get a 1.7% print the government had to assume that inflation at an annualized rate in America was just 710 of 1% now I don't believe that for a minute in fact if the inflation rate that they used or the deflator was accurate it would have already revealed that the United States is in a recession right now in fact it has been in a recession for the entirety of the Obama presidency okay so are you suggesting that the American government is misleading the public and giving out inaccurate information well I'm not suggesting it I'm saying it that is what they're doing you know that that's what how the government designs these numbers they're deliberately designed to paint a Rosier picture of the economy every time they go and change the methodology they do it in a way that's more favorable so when they measure inflation uh they get a lower number when they measure unemployment they deliberately get a lower number when they measure GDP they get a higher number right it's not really information it's more like propaganda and individuals and investors need to look through that government smoke scream open up their eyes and see what's actually happening and if you look at the real data right the street excuse me when we go back to 2008 the trigger were all those those dirty mortgages the sub Prime Mortgage crisis what is going to be the trigger this time around that you say will cause the economy to collapse and and likely have ramifications here in Canada and around the world what will be that trigger this time okay the trigger wasn't the mortgages that was the consequence the FED pulled the trigger with cheap money it was the artificially low interest rates that that were responsible for the housing bubble that and government guaranteed mortgages well if you look at what they're doing now the FED is even more Reckless than it was back then uh the government is even more involved in propping up the housing market now than it was back then so together the government and the FED have inflated a much bigger bubble than they did last time now maybe you could say subprime was the pin that pricked the bubble what's going to be the pin that pricks the bubble this time maybe it's going to be a big drop in the bond market or a big drop in the dollar but there's going to be a pin because this bubble is too big uh to to to not get pricked and when it does the aftermath is going to be far worse than what happened in in 2008 2009 okay uh just quickly what year when is this going to happen Mr shf well again when people were asking me that question in 2004 and five I couldn't give them a definite year I just knew that it was coming because I understood the fundamentals and as I tried to mention a bit earlier if you look at the fundamentals if you look at the Contracting labor force the declining use of energy the explosion of poverty in America and an income inequality all the record numbers of people on food stamps and on disability all the part-time jobs that are now replacing the full-time jobs that we've lost all of this is consistent with a shrink economy but the government won't admit it meanwhile the cost of living is rising rapidly in America and we pretend that there's not enough inflation and Ben beraki is out there trying to lay the foundation now for more QE because he knows that he can never taper he's he's just bluffing he can't tell the market the truth that the US economy is completely addicted to his monetary heroin and the minute he takes it away uh it's going to be a complete economic withdrawal we are out of time Peter Schiff thank you so much for that this morning an even greater disaster that is looming but you know You' talked about the US economy is doing well that's just according to the government but even if you look at their numbers we got the GDP numbers that came out uh yesterday and people are making a big deal that the economy grew at 1.7% which was better than estimates but if you recall uh in the first quarter of 2013 the government first estimated that the GDP grew at 25% but yesterday they revised that down to just 1.1 I Believe by the time they finish revising the second quarter numbers down it'll be close to zero in fact in order to get a 1.7% print the government had to assume that inflation at an annualized rate in America was just 7/10 of 1% now I don't believe that for a minute in fact if the inflation rate that they used or the deflator was accurate it would have already revealed that the United States is in a recession right now in fact it has been in a recession for the entirety of the Obama presidency okay so are you suggesting that the American government is misleading the public and giving out inaccurate information well I'm not suggesting it I'm saying it that is what they're doing you know that that's what how the government designs these numbers they're deliberately designed to paint a Rosier picture of the economy every time they go and change the methodology they do it in a way that's more favorable so when they measure inflation uh they get a lower number when they measure unemployment interest rates that that were responsible for the housing bubble that and government guaranteed mortgages well if you look at what they're doing now the FED is even more Reckless than it was back then uh the government is even more involved in propping up the housing market now than it was back then so together the government and the FED have inflated a much bigger bubble than they did last time now maybe you could say subprime was the pin that pricked the bubble what's going to be the pin that pricks the bubble this time maybe it's going to be a big drop in the bond market or a big drop in the dollar but there's going to be a pin because this bubble is too big uh to to to not get pricked and when it does the aftermath is going to be far worse than what happened in in 2008 2009 all the US economic indicators are looking good these days the economy grew over the first two quarters of this year housing prices the stock market they're both up and even Moody has upgraded the US credit Outlook to stable from negative but at least one person is saying not so fast Peter Schiff is the head of the investment firm Euro Pacific Capital he is joining us now from Western Connecticut good morning to you welcome to our program good morning and thanks for having me on so why do you believe that the US is headed for an economic disaster even worse than the one that we saw back in 2008 well first of all I was also one of the few people to have accurately forecast the last disaster when the same people who are now saying everything is great are oblivious to it they deliberately get a lower number when they measure GDP they get a higher number right it's not really information it's more like propaganda and individuals and investors need to look through that government smoke scream open up their eyes and see what's actually happening and if you look at the real data right the shrink EXC me when we go back to 2008 the trigger where all those those dirty mortgages the subprime mortgage crisis what is going to be the trigger this time around that you say will cause the economy to collapse and and likely have ramifications here in Canada and around the world what will be that trigger this time okay the trigger wasn't the mortgages that was the consequence the FED pulled the trigger with cheap money it was the artificially low
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