저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 지정학적 긴장과 중앙은행 유동성 축소로 금·원자재는 오르고 주식은 하락해 큰 시장 혼란이 올 수 있다는 비관적 전망. 지정학 리스크: 시리아 군사행동 우려 속에서 전쟁이 벌어지면 원유 등 에너지·식량·구리·납 가격이 과거 전쟁 때처럼 크게 오를 것이라고 봄. 본인은 원유와 금을 보유하고 있어 수익을 낼 것으로 언급. 주식·시장 방향: 전쟁이 나면 주식은 하락하고 원자재는 상승할 것이며, 본인이 숏한 시장들은 이미 하락 중이라고 설명. 신흥국(인도·인도네시아·터키): 대규모 경상수지 적자를 인위적 자금 유입으로 메워 왔으나 유동성 바다가 끝나면 고통을 겪을 것이라고 봄. 이미 Fed 부양 축소 우려로 신뢰가 흔들리는 조짐이 보임. 패닉 전망: 아직 본격적 패닉이나 공포는 없지만 인위적 유동성이 끝나면 미국과 서방 선진국 포함 많은 시장에서 패닉이 나올 것으로 예상. 주요 중앙은행이 동시에 돈을 찍어낸 것은 기록상 처음이라 끝날 때 큰 혼란이 올 것이라고 경고.
다듬은 글
Jim geopolitical concerns Rising with talk of potential military action in Syria how are these events Weighing on your views towards investing well Tara I own I own oil I own gold I own things like that and if there is going to be a war and it sounds like America's desperate to have a war they're going to go much much higher stocks are going to go down some of the markets that I'm short are already going down Commodities are going to go up I mean yeah some of the things I own I'll make a lot of money I'm not particularly keen on War I assure you but it sounds like they want it is your main concern about supply chain disruptions for oil is that where we'll see the biggest moves well that's where we'll see huge moves but the problem with war terror is and I'm not the first to know this no matter how well the plans are made strange things happen in War and who knows what unintended consequences will come but I do know that throughout history whenever you've had War things like food prices have gone up a lot Energy prices have gone up a lot copper price lead prices you know all of these things go up a lot whenever there's been a war in the past meanwhile moving farther to the Far East we're seeing something of a mini crisis around Asia the FED stimulus unwinding really affecting confidence in India and Indonesia in particular do you think this is a short term blip or do you think these countries face very Rough Waters ahead of course say face R Rough Waters ahead Tara you know India and Indonesia turkey too which is part of Asia all of them have huge balance of trade deficits which they've been able to finance with all this artificial free money that's been floating around now the artificial sea of liquidity is going to end someday and when it ends all the people depending on this free money and this sea of liquidity are going to suffer whether it's this week or this year or next year they're all going to suffer I we're already though Jim seeing sort of the unwinding of what happens when there's fears of that stimulus coming out what's next for these countries where does it go from here ter we we haven't seen much of anything yet I mean normally in bare markets things go down 40 to 80% and people give up they throw the shares out to Wi and they say I never want to invest again as long as I live sure we've seen some declines have we seen Panic have we seen Terror absolutely not not in any markets yet are you expecting Panic we've seen many crises but do you see more Panic yes of course when when when this arificial sea of liquidity ends we're going to see panic in a lot of markets including in the US including in West developed markets I mean Tara this is the first time in recorded history that all major central banks have been flooding the money with artificial money printing at the same time where they've all been trying to to base their currencies at the same time this has never happened in in recorded history when this ends it's going to be a huge mess this will come but I do know that throughout history whenever you've had War things like food prices have gone up a lot Energy prices have gone up a lot copper price lead prices you know all of these things go up a lot whenever there's been a war in the past meanwhile moving farther to the Far East we're seeing something of a mini crisis around Asia the FED stimulus unwinding really affecting confidence in India and Indonesia in particular do you think this is a short are going to suffer whether it's this week or this year or next year they're all going to suffer I we're already though Jim seeing sort of the unwinding of what happens when there's fears of that stimulus coming out what's next for these countries where does it go from here T we we haven't seen much of anything yet I mean normally in bare markets things go down 40 to 80% and people give up they throw the Jim geopolitical concerns Rising with talk of potential military action in Syria how are these events Weighing on your views towards investing well Tara I own I own oil I own gold I own things like that and if there is going to be a war and it sounds like America's desperate to have a war they're going to go much much higher stocks are going to go down some of the markets that I'm short are already going down Commodities are going to go up I mean yeah some of the things I own I'll make a lot of money I'm not particularly keen on War I assure you but it sounds like they want it is your main concern about supply chain disruptions for oil is that where we'll see the biggest moves well that's where we'll see huge moves but the problem with war to is and I'm not the first to know this no matter how well the plans are made strange things happen in War and who knows what unintended consequences term blip or do you think these countries face very Rough Waters ahead of course they face R Rough Waters ahead Tara you know India and Indonesia turkey too which is part of Asia all of them have huge balance of trade deficits which they've been able to finance with all this artificial free money that's been floating around now the artificial sea of liquidity is going to end someday and when it ends all the people depending on this free money and this sea of liquidity






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