저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국 경제는 2008년보다 더 큰 재앙을 향해 가고 있으며, 정부 통계는 경기 침체를 가리고 있다는 주장. 경제지표 비판: 2013년 1분기 GDP 성장률은 처음 2.5%로 발표됐다가 1.1%로 하향 수정됐고, 2분기 수정치는 0%에 가까울 것으로 봤다. 1.7% 성장률을 내기 위해 정부가 연율 인플레이션을 0.7%로 가정했다고 주장하며, 이는 믿기 어렵다고 함. 침체 주장: 올바른 디플레이터를 쓰면 미국은 이미 침체 상태이며, 오바마 대통령 재임 기간 내내 침체였다고 주장. 통계 조작 주장: 정부가 인플레이션은 낮게, 실업률은 낮게, GDP는 높게 나오도록 방법론을 바꾼다고 주장하며 이를 정부 선전에 가깝다고 평가. 버블과 트리거: 2008년 위기의 원인은 서브프라임 자체보다 연준의 저금리와 정부 보증 모기지였으며, 현재는 연준과 정부가 그때보다 더 큰 버블을 부풀렸다고 주장. 이 버블을 터뜨릴 핀은 채권시장 급락 또는 달러 급락일 수 있다고 언급. 시점과 근거: 정확한 연도는 특정하지 못했으나, 노동인구 감소, 에너지 사용 감소, 빈곤 및 소득 불평등 확대, 식품보조·장애 수당 수급자 최고치, 정규직 대신 시간제 일자리 증가를 근거로 제시. 생활비는 오르는데 인플레이션은 낮게 잡힌다고 주장. 연준 전망: 버냉키가 추가 양적완화를 위한 기반을 다지고 있으나, 테이퍼링은 불가능하며 자금 회수 시 경제는 심각한 금단 현상을 겪을 것이라고 경고. 종합: 전반적으로 강한 하락(경기 붕괴) 쪽 견해이나 구체적 기간과 가격 목표는 없음.
다듬은 글
all the US economic indicators are looking good these days the economy grew over the first two quarters of this year housing prices the stock market they're both up and even Moody has upgraded the US credit Outlook to stable from negative but at least one person is saying not so fast Peter Schiff is the head of the investment firm europacific Capital he is joining us now from Weston Connecticut good morning to you welcome to our program good morning and thanks for having me on so why do you believe that the US is headed for an economic disaster even worse than the one that we saw back in 2008 right well first of all I was also one of the few people to have accurately forecast the last disaster when the same people who are now saying everything is great are oblivious to an even greater disaster that is looming but you know you've talked about the US economy is doing well that's just according to the government but even if you look at their numbers we got the GDP numbers that came out uh yesterday and people are making a big deal that the economy grew at 1.7% which was better than estimates but if you recall uh in the first quarter of 2013 the government first estimated that the GDP grew at 25% but yesterday they revised that down to just 1.1 I Believe by the time they finish revising the second quarter numbers down it'll be close to zero in fact in order to get a 1.7% print the government had to assume that inflation at an annualized rate in America was just 710 of 1% now I don't believe that for a minute in fact if the inflation rate that they used or the deflator was accurate it would have already revealed that the United States is in a recession right now in fact it has been in a recession for the entirety of the Obama presidency okay so are you suggesting that the American government is misleading the public and giving out inaccurate information well I'm not suggesting it I'm saying it that is what they're doing you know that that's what how the government designs these numbers they're deliberately designed to paint a Rosier picture of the economy every time they go and change the methodology they do it in a way that's more favorable so when they measure inflation uh they get a lower number when they measure unemployment they deliberately get a lower number when they measure GDP they get a higher number right it's not really information it's more like propaganda and individuals and investors need to look through that government smoke scream open up their eyes and see what's actually happening and if you look at the real data right the street excuse me when we go back to 2008 the trigger were all those those dirty mortgages the sub Prime Mortgage crisis what is going to be the trigger this time around that you say will cause the economy to collapse and and likely have ramifications here in Canada and around the world what will be that trigger this time okay the trigger wasn't the mortgages that was the consequence the FED pulled the trigger with cheap money it was the artificially low interest rates that that were responsible for the housing bubble that and government guaranteed mortgages well if you look at what they're doing now the FED is even more Reckless than it was back then uh the government is even more involved in propping up the housing market now than it was back then so together the government and the FED have inflated a much bigger bubble than they did last time now maybe you could say subprime was the pin that pricked the bubble what's going to be the pin that pricks the bubble this time maybe it's going to be a big drop in the bond market or a big drop in the dollar but there's going to be a pin because this bubble is too big uh to to to not get pricked and when it does the aftermath is going to be far worse than what happened in in 2008 2009 okay uh just quickly what year when is this going to happen Mr shf well again when people were asking me that question in 2004 and five I couldn't give them a definite year I just knew that it was coming because I understood the fundamentals and as I tried to mention a bit earlier if you look at the fundamentals if you look at the Contracting labor force the declining use of energy the explosion of poverty in America and an income inequality all the record numbers of people on food stamps and on disability all the part-time jobs that are now replacing the full-time jobs that we've lost all of this is consistent with a shrink economy but the government won't admit it meanwhile the cost of living is rising rapidly in America and we pretend that there's not enough inflation and Ben beraki is out there trying to lay the foundation now for more QE because he knows that he can never taper he's he's just bluffing he can't tell the market the truth that the US economy is completely addicted to his monetary heroin and the minute he takes it away uh it's going to be a complete economic withdrawal we are out of time Peter Schiff thank you so much for that this morning an even greater disaster that is looming but you know You' talked about the US economy is doing well that's just according to the government but even if you look at their numbers we got the GDP numbers that came out uh yesterday and people are making a big deal that the economy grew at 1.7% which was better than estimates but if you recall uh in the first quarter of 2013 the government first estimated that the GDP grew at 25% but yesterday they revised that down to just 1.1 I Believe by the time they finish revising the second quarter numbers down it'll be close to zero in fact in order to get a 1.7% print the government had to assume that inflation at an annualized rate in America was just 7/10 of 1% now I don't believe that for a minute in fact if the inflation rate that they used or the deflator was accurate it would have already revealed that the United States is in a recession right now in fact it has been in a recession for the entirety of the Obama presidency okay so are you suggesting that the American government is misleading the public and giving out inaccurate information well I'm not suggesting it I'm saying it that is what they're doing you know that that's what how the government designs these numbers they're deliberately designed to paint a Rosier picture of the economy every time they go and change the methodology they do it in a way that's more favorable so when they measure inflation uh they get a lower number when they measure unemployment interest rates that that were responsible for the housing bubble that and government guaranteed mortgages well if you look at what they're doing now the FED is even more Reckless than it was back then uh the government is even more involved in propping up the housing market now than it was back then so together the government and the FED have inflated a much bigger bubble than they did last time now maybe you could say subprime was the pin that pricked the bubble what's going to be the pin that pricks the bubble this time maybe it's going to be a big drop in the bond market or a big drop in the dollar but there's going to be a pin because this bubble is too big uh to to to not get pricked and when it does the aftermath is going to be far worse than what happened in in 2008 2009 all the US economic indicators are looking good these days the economy grew over the first two quarters of this year housing prices the stock market they're both up and even Moody has upgraded the US credit Outlook to stable from negative but at least one person is saying not so fast Peter Schiff is the head of the investment firm Euro Pacific Capital he is joining us now from Western Connecticut good morning to you welcome to our program good morning and thanks for having me on so why do you believe that the US is headed for an economic disaster even worse than the one that we saw back in 2008 well first of all I was also one of the few people to have accurately forecast the last disaster when the same people who are now saying everything is great are oblivious to it they deliberately get a lower number when they measure GDP they get a higher number right it's not really information it's more like propaganda and individuals and investors need to look through that government smoke scream open up their eyes and see what's actually happening and if you look at the real data right the shrink EXC me when we go back to 2008 the trigger where all those those dirty mortgages the subprime mortgage crisis what is going to be the trigger this time around that you say will cause the economy to collapse and and likely have ramifications here in Canada and around the world what will be that trigger this time okay the trigger wasn't the mortgages that was the consequence the FED pulled the trigger with cheap money it was the artificially low
Comments 0