저자: JimRogers/진행:HeatherNelson · 외국인
요약 보기
2008년 금융위기 직후 공황 국면에서 짐 로저스는 각국의 구제금융과 유동성 투입이 문제를 해결하지 못하며, 부실 기업과 금융기관은 파산시켜 자산을 건전한 주체에게 넘기는 정리 과정이 필요하다고 주장했다. 시장 전망: 현재는 모든 자산이 청산되는 단계이며 펀더멘털과 무관하게 매도되고 있다. 그는 금융주(모건스탠리 등)는 손상되어 회복이 어렵다고 보고, 펀더멘털이 훼손되지 않은 원자재를 매수 중이라고 밝혔다. 포지션: 엔화, 스위스프랑, 농산물을 매수했고 일부 숏 포지션은 청산했다. 농산물은 지난주 매수 후 이번 주 하락했다. 인플레이션 경고: 유동성 과잉 공급으로 향후 강한 인플레이션, 통화 시장 혼란, 채권시장 붕괴가 올 수 있으며 주식시장은 이를 과소평가하고 있다고 경고했다. 아시아 전망: 아시아 경제는 미국 상황에 크게 의존하므로 간접적 타격이 불가피하다. 싱가포르, 중국, 일본 등은 외환보유고를 지키고 자국 안정에 집중해야 하며 서구 금융기관 구제에 나설 필요가 없다고 봤다. 정책 비판: 방만한 경영을 한 금융인을 구제하는 것은 부당하며, G7 지도자들은 개입을 멈추고 시장 정리에 맡겨야 한다고 주장했다. 그는 과거 신용 확대와 무담보 주택대출 등 과도한 레버리지가 현재 위기의 원인이라고 지적했다. 출연 및 질의응답: 진행자와 홍콩 게스트 Adrienne Mowat가 인플레이션 대 디플레이션 관점을 질문했고, 로저스는 대규모 통화 발행이 역사적으로 인플레이션을 낳았다고 답했다. 전체적으로 단기 하락과 장기 인플레이션 우려를 함께 제시했다.
다듬은 글
Jim of course a legendary investor a gym can I start off by asking you why you think the equity markets are not responding to the stabilization plans that are being introduced around the world at the moment because their absurd Jeff we have people if I had come on your show every week for a hundred weeks in a row and everything I said you was wrong would you keep me on your show would you have any confidence in me would you listen to me mr.
Paulsen mr. Bernanke and the guy at the new york fed Tim somebody every week they have been dead wrong why would you listen to them I wouldn't listen to them Jim but we are where we are and I think our audience would love to know from you what you're actually doing with your money right now because you obviously we'll be seeing some opportunities here I'm sure you've kept some of your own powder dry but maybe you could give our audience some advice as to how Jim Rogers is allocating his capital well I have an enormous amount of cash and I've been using it to buy more Japanese yen more swiss francs more agricultural products I mean there's a liquidation phase going on Jeff where everything is being liquidated i bought agriculture last week and it's down this week you know they're selling everything in sight but that's what I've covered some shorts I covered a few shorts are here today that's what I'm doing with my money now Jim at some point this has got to end right and at which levels in the markets would you start thinking you know what companies look cheap enough for me right now to get back into equities I'm not sure I want to buy equities when i win the market caves in I don't think equities are going to come out of this on top normally when you have a panic that the work the way you make money is you buy the things where the fundamentals have been unimpaired and they will lead the market coming out most equity Morgan Stanley's not coming out is unimpaired so I'm buying our commodities I'd commodities are the only thing I know that are coming out of this unimpaired what supply and demand is still terribly out of balance and the Japanese yen and this was right there's a real feeling at least here in Asia of helplessness watching what's being done in the financial markets here the the wealth destruction that's happening through no fault of their own the asian seemed to feel because this was a problem that was primarily a Western financial system problem but Asia is not immune to this I happen to agree i thought it outrageous that anybody has to step in and bail out a bunch of 29 year olds driving Maseratis what about all the people in countries that minded their manners save their money didn't get overextended and now all of a sudden they're being asked to bail out a bunch of guys on Wall Street who were incompetent at best and some of them crooks I find it outrageous but by the way even if it's not outrageous the way to solve this problem is to let people go bankrupt all of this pumping money into the system is not going to save it you see what the market is saying the market says we don't buy that let people go bankrupt then you will hit bottom and then you will start over the people who are sound will take over the assets from the people who are unsound and we will start over this is the way the world has worked for a few thousand years you have a gym we we do want an orderly restructuring of the financial economy we don't actually want to throw lots of people out of jobs because we have a liquidity problem in the global economy at this stage and that's the issue here isn't it we don't want to go back to depression era economics just because we cannot manage an orderly deleveraging of the financial economy Jeff we had the worst successes we've had in the credit markets in world history you think we just wake up one morning and say oh well we had a horrible horrible period of excess and now everything is okay we're just going to ignore that we're going to have to take some pain Jeff never before in world history will people able to buy houses with no money down many people about four or five houses with no money down and no job and then they did it with cars and student loans and credit card loans you think we just say well that's too bad we're going to start over nobody loses his job Jeff be realistic Jim what do we what do we need from our g7 leaders this weekend weather what they need to do is you know go down to the bar and have a beer and leave the rest of us alone let everybody let the people who are sound succeed and let the other people fail and you know Jeff what I'm afraid of is they're going to keep doing what they've been doing which the market hates you can see the market agent because this is going to unleash rampant inflation around the world rampant confusion in the currency markets and you're going to you're going to have people currencies gyrating all over the world bond markets are going to start to collapse and then we're going to have a real problem and that's why the stock market the stock market understands is there are leashing a inflationary Holocaust and because they don't know what else to do and they're making mistakes all right and if I can just bring it back to Asia once again because the Asian economies depends so much what happens in the US and yeah you could let these companies go bankrupt we could let this creative destruction take place in the Western financial system but that's going to impact the exporter's in a jar the economies in Asia so so hence people want to find a way to solve the problem and have this ordinary or order deleveraging is there anything Asian economies or Asian policymakers can do to help well what they should continue to do is to save their money keep their power to dry and try to main stupid paint maintain stability in their own countries Singapore's got gigantic reserves why should they throw them into the breach to bail out of miracle they better take care of themselves China the same thing Japan the same thing they should not be stepping into the breach to help people who made mistakes let me bring in our guest host who's been staying with us are very patiently there Adrienne Mowat in in Hong Kong ADA you've got a question for Jim right hi Jim I'm not quite sure if I understand this idea about inflation hyperinflation we seem to be in a deleveraging event which is an amazingly fast deleveraging event which is inherently deflationary well Adrian when you print your organic amounts of money and you flood the world with money throughout history that has led to inflation yet what I said was coming out of this they're setting the stage but when we come out of this of a massive inflationary Holocaust was the word I use that's what I'm in right now yes everything is being liquidated everything is being liquidated it doesn't matter about the fundamentals but that's what I was explaining to in a period like this the way you make money coming out of it is to own the things where the fundamentals have not been impaired Jim very good speaking with you from London here thanks so much for giving us your time this morning as we try and address exactly why these equity markets are down so heavily in the agency we want to throw lots of people out of jobs because we have a liquidity problem in the global economy at this stage and that's the issue here isn't it we don't want to go back to depression-era economics just because we cannot manage an orderly deleveraging of the financial economy chef we had the worst successes we've had in the credit markets in world history you think we just wake up one morning and say oh well we had a horrible horrible period of excess and now everything is okay we're just going to ignore it it we're going to have to take some pain Jeff never before in world history will people able to buy houses with no money down many people about four or five houses with no money down and no job and then they did it with cars and student loans and credit card loans you think we just say well that's too bad we're going to start over nobody loses his job Jeff be realistic Jim what do we what do we need from our g7 leaders this weekend weather what they need to do is you know go down to the bar and have a beer and leave the rest of us alone that everybody let the people who are so through no fault of their own the Asian seemed to feel because this was a problem that was primarily a Western financial system problem but Asia is not immune to this I happen to agree i thought it outrageous did anybody has to step in and bail out a bunch of 29 year olds driving Maseratis what about all the people in countries that minded their manners save their money didn't get overextended and now all of a sudden they're being asked to bail out a bunch of guys on Wall Street who were incompetent at best and some of them crooks I find it outrageous but by the way even if it's not outrageous the way to solve this problem is to let people go bankrupt all of this pumping money into the cyst is not going to save it you see what the market is saying the markets is we don't buy that let people go bankrupt then you will hit bottom and then you will start over the people who are sound will take over the assets from the people who are unsound and we will start over this is the way the world has worked for a few thousand years you have a gym we we do want an orderly restructuring of the financial economy we don't actually own succeed and let the other people fail and you know Jeff what I'm afraid of is they're going to keep doing what they've been doing which the market hates you can see the margarita because this is going to unleash rampant inflation around the world rampant confusion in the currency markets and you're going to you're going to have people currencies gyrating all over the world bond markets are going to start to collapse and then we're going to have a real problem and that's why the stock market the stock market understands is there are leashing a inflationary Holocaust and because they don't know what else to do and they're making mistakes all right and if I could just bring it back to Asia once again because the Asian economies depends so much what happens in the US and yeah you could let these companies go bankrupt could let this creative destruction take place in the Western financial system but that's going to impact the exporter's in a jar the economies in Asia so so hence people want to find a way to solve the problem and have this ordinary or order deleveraging is there anything Asian economies or Asian policymakers can do to help well what they should continue to do is to save their money keep their power to dry and try to main stupid thing Jim of course a legendary investor up Jim can I start off by asking you why you think the equity markets are not responding to the stabilization plans that are being introduced around the world at the moment because their absurd Jeff we have people if I had come on your show every week for a hundred weeks in a row and everything I said you was wrong would you keep me on your show would you have any confidence in me would you listen to me mr.
Paulsen mr. Bernanke and the guy at the new york fed em somebody every week they have been dead wrong why would you listen to them I wouldn't listen to them Jim but we are where we are and I think our audience would love to know from you what you're actually doing with your money right now because you obviously we'll be seeing some opportunities here I'm sure you've kept some of your own powder dry but maybe you could give our audience some advice as to how Jim Rogers is allocating his capital well I have an enormous amount of cash and I've been using it to buy more Japanese yen more swiss francs more agricultural products I mean there's a liquidation phase going on Jeff where everything is being liquidated i bought agriculture last week and it's down this week you know they're selling everything in sight but that's what I've covered some shorts I covered a few shorts are here today that's what I'm doing with my money now Jim at some point this has got to end right and at which levels in the markets would you start thinking you know what companies look cheap enough for me right now to get back into equities I'm not sure I want to buy equities when i win the market caves in I don't think equities are going to come out of this on top normally when you have a panic that the work the way you make money is you buy the things where the fundamentals have been unimpeded coming out most equity Morgan Stanley's not coming out as unimpaired so I'm buying our commodities like commodities are the only thing I know that are coming out of this unimpaired what supply and demand is still terribly out of balance and the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc there's a real feeling at least here in Asia of helplessness watching what's being done in the financial markets here that the the wealth destruction that's happening
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