저자: Kevin · 외국인
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주식·비트코인 급락의 원인으로 기관 매도, 트럼프 정책(감원·관세)의 단기 성장 둔화 불확실성, 제조업 PMI·Philly/Richmond Fed 지표 악화를 제시. 금리 하락과 채권(TLT) 헤지, 실물 부동산(하우스 해킹) 및 마이크로스트래티지 부채 리스크를 언급. 비트코인은 블록 거래 가능성을 들어 가격 충격이 제한적이었다고 주장.
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hey everyone me Kevin here the stock market is falling and in this video I'd like to explain why uh first things first while I wanted to make this video yesterday I thought maybe today things would recover a little bit and we can kind of do a postmortem on what happened yesterday and I'm over here in Florida try to get this this flight training done it's it's it's exhausting but I still want to provide this value to you and what I noticed yesterday uh as we talked about in the course member live streams as well is there are few things happening uh first thing is you tend to see a really substantial selloff at the beginning of the day uh and then another sell off at the end of the day uh this was actually the paler bounce right here I uh sent a trade alert on some call options on which which we did have have a nice rise here but it certainly wasn't anywhere enough to make up for uh the drop in the beginning of the day if you were long holding and not just entering on that line now today what's fascinating is we have not stopped that downsell uh from the opening now this could reverse and we could get back here but this is indicative of something usually when we see markets that dump at the beginning of the day and the end of the day this doesn't just have to do with paler usually it's indicative of institutional selling this is the S&P 500 right here uh and you can see what's happening right now relative to uh what happened yesterday you had the am cell midday sort of buy the dip uh and then end of the day sell now why does that matter well it's a sign of institutions drisking look I have a lot of experience uh with with Wall Street and on Wall Street uh and I'll tell you it's it's not a very fun place to be mostly because you kind of have to do what's good for business not necessarily what's best for your Investments you on on Wall Street kind of always have to be there to encourage people to buy deposit more funds and of course you have exposure to the latest and greatest stock the problem with that is it actually removes your ability to have foresight for the Market uh see foresight is actually really unpopular in the short term right because foresight would tell you that when stocks are really eoric you probably want to sell and go buy something that's super bearish like bonds right but doing that is really unpopular and so institutions usually don't do that so publicly I find this every day you get institutions that send their sort of bulls out onto the street ah everything's fine everything's fine go buy the dip but then behind the scenes institutions are putting these C orders that we see at am and p.m now of course AM and PM have the highest volatility so is it possible that retail is only trading AM and PM as well I don't think so I think you know it's usually just institutions that are your big AM and PM movers you know right after market open right before Market close mostly because the way you could trade with an institution is you can Mark orders as Market on close as an example right so you'll put in your order you'll take your day doing your research and your work you put in your orders for the end of the day and you submit M them off and then you go home uh and then right before the closing bell in the last 15 minutes these orders get executed so that's typical that's one of the reasons why you see these moves now why would institutions be dumping that's sort of the big question here is I mean you've got Robin Hood down 10% well keep in mind that when the stock market Falls retail investors stop buying stocks as much excuse me still a little under the weather shouldn't have gone to China you know I thought doing a documentary on Wuhan would be a cool thing anyway uh so when retail lowers their volume of course Brokers uh like Robin Hood are going to see lower volumes and so people are trying to pre- price okay Market down well Robin Hood will go down by a magnifying effect because of their exposure to making money off of the market movements and usually as markets go down people don't actually trade more they trade less mostly because some of their money has evaporated you know drone Powell is going around with a giant vacuum cleaner basically sucking up extra liquidity but let's talk about some of the other data that's going on so just this morning we had the Richmond uh fed manufacturing and Philadelphia manufacturing reports that came out now the Richmond fed one was interesting because they said that activity actually increased somewhat in February uh but that was because of a notable increase in shipments well shipments mean old orders have finally gone out the door so what is the forward information say so their composite went up because of the shipments issue or benefit I guess but then on the future index they write the following the local business conditions index remained at5 in February while the index for future local business conditions fell from 32 to 2 the Futures index for shipments and new orders also decreased substantially from 13 and 8 or 2 13 and 8 subst respectively so both of those plummeted vendor backlog times also decreased so that's not great so all of that kind of went in the Poopers okay well what else did we get this morning because that report on the headline if you just read the headline it'd be like oh it looks like it did a little bit better than expected oh boy go by the tip uh but then when you actually look at the detail it's like wait a minute the old stuff is good the new stuff is bad okay so that's Richmond fed but then we also got the Philadelphia fed report this morning we covered all this in the course member Liv stream which keep in mind we've got a large like this is going to be the largest price increase ever at the end of this month uh for the courses so go to me kevin.com if you want to be in you pay once you get lifetime access and we're probably going to be doing mini masterminds later in this year no guarantees but it'll be for course members only and the goal is to get the entry price up to 800 to 1,000 bucks right now it's a fraction of that so check that out over at meetkevin.com you'll be really happy if if you join sooner rather than later and you hey we were live this morning for over an hour and a half uh you know just talking about what's going on as the Market opens so if you still want those those Market open Live streams you can get those in the course member live streams every single day we I even do weekends uh really just trying to provide as much value as I can to course members and you just get you know raw Kevin every day raw raw dog Kevin oh boy uh anyway so Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank uh indicated this morning the following uh manufacturing activity declined this month according to firms responding to February's uh non-manufacturing business Outlook the index for General activity at firm at the firm level new orders and sales and revenue all declined into the negative territory firms continue to report overall increases in full and part-time employment that's actually good uh and price indices suggest little change in the prices of firms own goods and services but continue to indicate an increase in the price for inputs so this is what I've been saying for for a year now is that companies don't have the pricing power to keep raising prices on you with the exception of you know food and eggs and and insurance they they do because uh well out of the whole basket of everything Insurance substantially lags and then you know we generally look at food as very volatile just because Supply chains because of bird flu and things can can be very volatile same with energy um but for for most goods and services you have pricing issues in fact if you look at the Philly fed one going back to this one it actually says the average growth rate of prices Edge down look at Home Depot Home Depot is forecasting growth of 1% in comp sales inflation's going to be higher than 1% so they are actually shrinking on a real basis an inflation adjusted basis continuing on uh they indicate that this was the first negative read in employment since April uh or sorry in in the employment work week so usually when the average work week Falls that's a precursor to people getting laid off layoffs happen last you know people keep going on CNBC they're like but but the economy is good because our employment so when unemployment weeks you are already at the bottom of the stock market that's by time uh current indicators declined to the worst level since April of 2023 uh and we had the future Regional activity index turned slightly negative its first negative read since August so the Philadelphia fed report this morning was bad the Richmond fed report this morning was bad those are just from this morning last week's S&P PMI report that I covered was terrible it was really bad like you should look it up if you haven't seen it yes S&P PMI report on business you could literally just Google that uh and uh and you'll find the February here you just go there see S&P Global flash us PMI report pop that open please I encourage you this is your homework read it I'll just read you the first line because I've already covered this I don't want to sound redundant but just as a reminder us business activity growth came close to stalling in February so no why is the stock market going down wow maybe because institutions are actually reading these reports and while their minions are going on CNBC telling you everything is okay they're actually in the back office is going oh look there's something you have to remember and I'm not saying this to be you know a bear on on Trump but there's something you have to remember about Trump policies Trump policies are growth negative at the beginning growth positive at the end so think about that for a moment what is what does that actually mean what am I saying when you fire people even because of waste I'm not making a political argument here I'm just saying fact of matter is when you fire people growth contracts simple when you tariff tariffs are terrible economic policy and they're nowhere near good enough to help off set our tax revenues but that's okay it's not political it's just simply stating both of those together are growth negative policies uncertainty around you know what's going on with Ukraine or whatever or you know are we going to turn the Gaza Strip into uh uh you know a new monoco uh these are all uncertainties that are growth negative right because we look and we go oh my gosh what's going to happen what's going to happen what's going to happen we don't know Rana had an interesting argument he's like look Trump if if you just said like cuz ran is a Democrat he's like look if you just said this is what the tariffs are going to be great then we can plan for it but what's actually happening it's a sort of like Hey we're going to do 25% tariffs ah just kidding you know we're going to have more troops at the Canadian border uh oh yeah you know what yeah we're actually still working retaliatory tariffs on on uh Canada and be like proo um this is not this is not to be anti-trump it's just simply to make the the statement that that uh confusion uh does create uncertainties which make people uh less confident in buying and they are growth negative for the time being now consider that for a moment growth negative at first eventually is supposed to be offset by what well tax cuts right let's get some water here Florida tap water baby all right so if you have growth negative policy that hits first later the goal is to get growth positive policy but that takes going through Congress right you have to get your tax policy through Congress you have to get your tax cuts through Congress what is this okay I thought I only had tea and decaf coffee oh I I need real coffee uh but anyway thanks Marriott uh tax policy is going to take a while to actually implement the tax policy won't actually probably come until uh we get to 2026 that's probably when we'll actually see our tax policy so if we have to wait until 2026 to see growth positive regulatory Cuts more certainty and tax cuts well you know by then the economy could be in a deep dark recession now I'm not praying for that because I think that's very bad uh I do think there are ways you can Hedge for that uh specifically I'm a big fan of um bonds uh TLT I think TLT you know $95 call options 2026 uh and $100 call options 2027 are quite interesting as a hedge for this you have to look at them as a hedge because look bonds do great when the economy does poorly and uh you know the economy only does poorly two out of every seven years so statistically if you were going to throw a dart you're more likely to hit a bull market right that said this latest data has moved me from a four and a half on the bull bear scale or bare bull scale down to like a two and a half the latest that is bad but what about apple apple and it's 500 billion investment let me tell you about that scam and now for a message from our paid sponsor helium mobile all right folks yall know I love good deals and the fact is I also love having good reception this is why I have four different sell plans on my phone now you don't have to be like me but you probably only have one and maybe you need a better one or you need a second one and I encourage you to check out helium mobile one of the reasons I do is because they actually have a free option so you can install a second plan on your phone this another Sim like an eim for free the free plan gives you 3 GB of data 100 minutes of calls and three under text all at no cost you go to their website helium mobile and see the three different options that you could tab through the zero tab the air tab the infinity tab what's great is they give you a breakdown of exactly what's included so it's super transparent one of the reasons they can offer you a free plan is because you get rewarded for sharing anonymized data that helps them improve their Network you also end up getting the potential for gift card rewards to things like uber and door Dash Nike Airbnb un name if you need more data they've got insanely inexpensive plans compared to some of the you know current bills you might be facing and so as a result encourage you to check him out helium mobile the only way to get in right now is by joining my exclusive weight list so make sure you use my link invite in the description down below and use code Kevin that'll help you lock in your spot on the wait list that way you could start saving some real money or get that second backup option True Story by the way I have four different cell services on my phone because when I'm traveling like this for work I want to make sure I always have cell service anyway let's talk about the Apple scam so look I like Apple I like Apple a lot I think they're a great company I'm a big fan of their leadership but when I heard Apple say that they're going to invest $500 billion over the next 4 years in in data centers to support their you know private cloud data centers which isn't really AI Cloud uh that would be you know these these AI data centers I mean I suppose they could be AI for like the internal neural Nets that they want to use but they really want to run these on your devices so I suppose it would be more like protected Cloud uh for uh you know things you want to upload on your iCloud or whatever and then audited uh servers data centers that are protected these are somewhat different from GPU based data centers they might be more uh you know hard drive based data centers uh but they'll probably also be some GPU data centers might be a mix of both but Apple made this announcement that uh they want to create 20,000 jobs over the next four years ideally you know sort of exactly matched with that Trump Administration it's a bend the knee is what it is right I mean meta bent the knee for Trump and their stock went up like 25% and so you know people are kind of like oh boy let's go Trump because it makes our stock go up that's fine again I I'm not here to be political but what I am here to do is look and I I was joking about this with course members this morning I'm like you know the meeting between Apple and Trump probably went something like oh hey Trump we'll invest all of our cash flow into uh the United States please please don't terrif us and this is what they did kind of in 2018 where you had this Chinese tff war going on and the Chinese sword in initiatives and Donald Trump Exempted Apple from a lot of the tariffs and actually ended up giving CEO Tim Cook or CEO Tim Cook ended up giving Trump one of the first of the new models of Max uh that were released because of this sort of relationship that they were able to earn and the exempting that Apple got for terorists which is Mission critical for them because of how much they manufacture overseas and then also how much they sell overseas but then I look and I go uh well wait a second Apple if I look at your balance sheet and current assets you all have about $65 billion which is cool but it's a far cry from $500 billion so then I'm like all right well what's their cash flow and that's where I figured it out their yearend cash flow is about $120 billion which is fantastic but that basically means they are saying hey Mr Trump we will invest 105% of our next four years of cash flow or 100% of our next four years of you know projected cash flow back into the United States you know Trump's probably like can you all do more you know but but this is this is actually a good thing right because you have a president who is encouraging businesses to invest in America and you know a lot of people see that is very good you create American jobs uh at some point those data centers will create more American demand for goods and services restaurants around those data centers the construction industry that gets supported there I'm a big fan of of those sort of announcements from the private sector they're actually not too dissimilar from the Biden Administration announcing the chips act and investments into America right except rather than the government making the investment announcements it's private Enterprise doing that uh for the benefit of them potentially being exempt from tariffs this is this is the goal of trump the the whole point here is to try to get businesses to invest in America so I see the point in the short term it does create some uncertainty stuff so uh you know is the Apple investment announc a scam no it's just it implies they have all the money now and they're really just promising their future cash flow and I personally don't think that promising your future cash flow for Investments is a Sound Investment decision because you just don't know what's going to happen between now and then but that's just my take okay so then Microsoft you know this was an interesting one Microsoft came out and said oh uh you know there are some people in the rumor mill talking about our our us cutting leases which I made a video on this and they basically said so the news is true but uh we're going to reinvest that money into something else see I personally actually think that a lot of these companies are going to realize they've overbuilt llm Investments you know language model Investments and I actually think you're going to see a big movement towards other types of capex so I think they'll still spend the capex but it'll go to things like actuators and batteries for Rob robotics rather than just data centers for llms that's my take uh but uh you know something to look at as well just some other data points here Microsoft uh while it fell yesterday due to these lease cancellations and Nvidia was down 3.1% on the news it you do have Nvidia earnings coming up and I actually think Nvidia earnings will be quite bullish mostly because they're like never not bullish when have you ever heard of Jensen go up and not tell you about the multi-trillion dollar investment opportunity other R you are going to get a bullish Jensen hall now are you going to get the same levels of growth projections I don't know I guess we'll see usually Nvidia beats and raises so the Market's already expecting a beat in race will it be enough you know Home Depot stocks down today and they technically beat but their growth was trash I mean to some extent they're even expecting negative growth so I'm not I'm not like purely optimistic uh now that said am I you know a mega bear well I always just like to use my bear bull scale I also really like to take a sip of this coffee but it's too hot right now so I have been uh under a five on the bare bull scale so you know one is sell everything 10 is all in on margin I've been under a five since last summer now that's been disappointing because to some extent that means I've been more bearish than I should have been during the uh the the Trump enthusiasm face which was you know an incredible run but when we actually look at the underlying fundamental data we look and say okay is it possible that we pulled forward a lot of production and goods and service spending in anticipation that everything's going to be great in 2025 and then all of a sudden 2025 hits and it's like oh more uncertainty tariff uncertainty tax uncertainty the benefits aren't here yet of course I mean we knew this we read this like a book before happen uh pricing power is limited like at some point the Slowdown will hit and you know if institutions are just talking about oh well you know jobs are still good then I think they're just again sending their lying Minions on CNBC to tell you that uh everything is fine when the reality is it's not and when you look at hedge fund exposure to the mag 7 right now people are actually joking that it's going to be called the lag seven because hedge fund exposure to the mag 7 right now is at the lowest uh level that we've seen in years uh people are talking about uh how uh even Baba sold off after they announced $53 billion of infrastructure spent and they see that as potentially a negative Catalyst for NVIDIA although Baba's actually popped up today Baba's been doing great since they're they're you know doubling down on AI so a lot of people actually on the flip side are taking the opposite side of that trade and they're saying nah man all in on China baby if the us is going to slow down we'll go to China that's fine I I I I'll just be transp parent I'm not I'm not as well educated on uh on China so I try to stay away from uh opining on everything Chinese uh Starbucks we saw cutting jobs Southwest cutting some jobs uh hims losing its access to I could probably never pronounce it right but semaglutide semaglutide that's not so great for him uh that's been one of their highest margin products and highest like I mean I think they charge somewhere around 199 bucks a month to have somebody come in uh and be a member and have ACC to semaglutide through HMS whereas they charge normal members like $39 to $59 a month I believe it is so you know you're getting a lot more margin over there but you know we've we've done a whole analysis on him in the course member live streams you can go check out uh where we actually go deep on this but anyo uh the the uh current latest that we have from Trump on tariffs is that Canada and Mexico tariffs are going to be quote on time now and moving along very rapidly those are quotes from Trump following an initial delay until March 4th which is already next week which is crazy means that coupon expiration is coming up at the end of this month already that's wild February 28 that's going to be a big one it's going to be the one of the biggest price hikes uh in a very very long time and it's mostly because as we start initiating doing um uh local meetups later this year uh we uh the entry price is going to be a lot higher uh Bond uh oh yeah and then there's this talk about uh TLT being at some of its highest levels of short interest in quite a while uh creating what a lot of people argue is is a potential buy the dip opportunity in in bonds but then again I have exposure to bond so I I don't want to sound biased but I found that very interesting that short interest is so high probably because it's made a lot of money you know you shorted bonds you made a lot of money uh now another thing that I'd like to talk about is U micro strategy and Michael sailor so Michael sailor bought like2 billion of Bitcoin again at somewhere around $95 billion and it basically did absolutely nothing for the stock which I thought was very very interesting because you know much like other people people are like huh usually when Michael saor buys Bitcoin goes up but that didn't happen right now and I think that's because again the institutions they're not being transparent to your face in that they're just secretly de grossing substantially and that includes de grossing on whether they have altcoin exposure Bitcoin exposure whatever it's just it's basically all turning into sell which could be very shortterm it's entirely possible that we get Nvidia with some Banger earnings tomorrow and everything just goes back to the moon and we go back to normal and this was just a short-term by the dip opportunity fine the reports that we're reading the pmis uh Richmond Philly feds uh University of Michigan sentiment and some of the other data we're getting they don't necessarily agree with that but hey who knows may maybe that'll spawn new investment but I think one of the reasons why Bitcoin didn't actually move up substantially after the sale or $2 billion buys because you basically just match that with another $2 billion of sales see that doesn't even necessarily have to be on the public Bitcoin Market it could be done through what we call dark pools which I know I'm going to get a lot of people Kevin it's blockchain it can't be dark pool dark poool doesn't mean that it's not like that that we'll never see it uh it just means that it's not done through your open and public market so for example let's say you have gold Sachs that says hey we've helped yall do so much in in in bond offerings uh we actually were look you know we want to help you with another Bond offering Goldman um micro strategy we've made so much money off y'all in commissions uh by the way we have about $2 billion of Bitcoin that we want to offload and I'm just speculating here right but I just want to explain how it could work we have $2 billion of Bitcoin that we want to offload uh next time you guys raise money and want to buy Bitcoin can we just sell it to you directly so that's still going to appear like an onchain transaction but it's not going to appear like a you know a giant Candlestick on on the uh public pricing markets for Bitcoin because it could just be an agreed upon market price okay we we'll put the transaction through we'll we'll trade that $2 billion with you uh and and you'll still see that on blockchain but you won't see that necessarily on on like you know somebody put in limit order by $2 billion Bitcoin you'd see these giant candles up or somebody put 2 billion sell you'd see these giant candlesticks down instead you're just matching a buy and seller at probably roughly what market price is and then you can see the volume but the price doesn't move that's just an example of how this sort could potentially work that's at least how these I guess maybe a better word than um uh dark poool would be to call it uh block transactions right uh this is this is frequently done on Wall Street and so it can be done in crypto as well uh just basically manually arranging a buyer and a seller very very common so what does this actually mean though for the long term well uh a Bitcoin sell down Michael sailor believes would actually be totally fine for micro strategy because they say that even if they had to pay their bonds back and the company value went down because Bitcoin went down they would just be able to pay people back in cheaper micro strategy stock I don't know what Michael sailor is smoking but that's not how bonds work when you sell convertible bonds you're promising to pay people back in cash uh when the Bonds mature well unless you have the cash you're going to have to sell your stock at a lower level to pay people back in that cash they're not going to take micro strategy stock at a lower level most of the convertible bonds that I've been studying for micro strategy all have conversion prices that are way higher than where they are now the last time I looked at a micro strategy Bond it had conversion prices for like 2028 at like $650 and so if it didn't convert at 650 people get their cash back well how are you going to pay people back if the stock is $200 well that's probably a lot easier than if the stock is $25 so n the next cycle that's not to be bearish Bitcoin it's actually to be bearish micro strategy same that's uh they've set themselves up for quite a lot of debt at a at a higher cost basis right so that's going to be something to pay attention to all right so now we've talked artificial intelligence Bitcoin we need to talk housing so see housing out there I'm a big fan but it depends on the location right now Florida and Texas and many parts of the country including some parts of DC are going through a supply shock more inventory is coming on the market at the beginning of the year than buyers are showing up that is a positive Supply shock which typically leads to a reduction in prices that creates an opportunity and that is where I personally see an opportunity to move more of my own money into house hack yes I do selfish plug I suppose but here's what I love about house hack first of all our reg should be out within the next week or two we'll probably talk to course members about it first but but I I'm not sure how long it'll be it could be even longer so this video is not a solicitation because there's there's nothing to do right now but what we'll probably do is keep doing what we've been doing which is when we raise money we buy real estate where we can get it for a discount that protects us if the market goes down but it means we are one of the buyers during a panic period we're raising cash we pay out our our uh rental yield it's about 5% so we pay that out uh and if we can grow the value of the company you get that upside as well that's basically what we do but I just buy fixer ERS go around the country buy fix ERS and we expand the business right now we're pretty heavy West Coast but we're looking to expand towards Texas and Florida and we actually think we don't know if that time is right now but we think soon there will be an opportunity to start buying the dip on Texas and Florida I think we're getting closer to that buy the dipo opportunity it might still be a year but we're getting closer uh event they'll bottom out uh and uh and then also develop adus so I'm a big fan of real estate now aside from from talking about house hack why do I think real estate is so interesting right now well I believe that if the market truly is slowing down then interest rates are going to plummet in fact I think that in the longer term we'll probably see interest rates come all the way down to the 30-year mortgage will be lower than 2% we'll end up having a 40 or 50e mortgage it'll be under 3% we'll have lower 30-year mortgage rates than we've ever had before I think we are heading into more of a deflationary spiral rather than uh an inflationary second wave so I think these these concerns that like credit agricult have about oh we're going into stagnation because January's inflation report was slightly high whatever dude you can believe that and and look if there's deflation and a recession you know what'll do really well as gold but I actually think we'll have deflation and recession which means bonds will do well gold could do well because of the recession aspect but but you'll lose the inflation buyers so real estate is very interesting though because if you can own assets that uh that are sensitive to interest rates this is why I like rock and mortgage United Wholesale I think some of these are near Rock Bottom I'm not saying they're at their bottom yet but they're near Rock Bottom uh end phase uh you know um uh housing these are assets that I think can do really well when rates plummet and if the stock market slows down because the economy is starting to slow down and institutions are starting to see the red flags and that ends up leading to layoffs then yeah it's just a matter of time for rates to plummet uh and so you want to sort of preposition and and pre- anticipate some of that so that's my take and uh if you want more details and Analysis from me make sure you're part of the courses huge price increas is coming so U make sure you get in by Friday the 28th if you have questions email us at staff kevin.com course member live streams every single day by sell trade alerts uh when I see opportunities long-term fundamental analysis so whether you like long-term short-term real estate stocks we cover it all really encourage you check it out go to Meek kevin.com thank you so much for being here folks and uh hope to be better soon still feel a little under the weather I'm going to have some coffee now and uh we'll see you in the next one appreciate yall see you goodbye and good luck
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