Elon Musk Asks Cathie Wood About The Buffet Indicator! Is The Stock Market Overvalued?

요약 보기

결론: 버핏지수(미국 시총/GDP)가 사상 최고 수준이라 과열 우려가 있지만, 캐시 우드는 생산성 향상으로 실질 GDP 성장률이 높고 인플레이션은 낮게 집계되고 있다고 봄. 버핏지수 설명 및 현황: 버핏지수는 미국 주식시장 시가총액을 GDP로 나눈 값으로, 버핏이 가장 좋은 단일 밸류에이션 지표라고 언급한 바 있음. 2020년 말 기준 S&P500 시총/GDP 비율은 85.6% 수준이었고, 2008년 54%에서 2000년 닷컴버블 당시 131%까지 올랐음. 이후 2019년 122%, 2020년 147%, 영상 촬영 시점 최근에는 156%로 상승해 과열 신호로 해석됨. 머스크의 질문과 캐시 우드의 답변: 머스크가 버핏지수가 역대급으로 높은데 어떻게 보느냐고 질문함. 캐시 우드는 GDP 통계가 산업화 시대에 만들어져 디지털 시대를 따라가지 못하고 있다고 지적함. 생산성 향상 덕분에 실질 GDP 성장률은 보고된 것보다 높고, 인플레이션은 낮게 나타날 가능성이 크다고 주장함. 이는 이익의 질이 크게 개선되고 있다는 의미로 연결됨. 실질 GDP와 디플레이션 논리: 실질 GDP는 인플레이션을 조정한 산출량이며, 인플레이션이 높을수록 실질 성장은 명목보다 낮아짐. 캐시 우드는 기술 발전으로 많은 것의 가격이 하락하고 있어 실질적으로는 디플레이션에 가까운 구조가 나타나고 있다고 봄. 기술 융합과 비용 하락 시나리오: 드론 배송 비용이 유인 방식 약 7달러에서 자율 방식 약 25센트로 떨어질 수 있다고 제시. AI 학습 비용은 연 약 37% 하락 중이며, AI 모델 성능은 연간 10배 성장하는 추세라고 언급. 유전체 분석(시퀀싱)과 암 액체생검도 비용이 3만 달러에서 1만 달러로 낮아졌고, 추가 하락 시 임계점을 넘어 확산될 것이라고 봄. 위성 발사 비용 하락, 핀테크·가상자산·유전체 등 여러 섹터의 동시 폭발 가능성 제시. 2001년 닷컴버블과의 차이: 당시에는 인터넷 아이디어에 비해 기술이 부족한 상태에서 자금이 과도하게 유입됐음. 현재는 실제로 비용을 낮추는 기술 진보가 동반되고 있어 다르다는 주장. 출연자 전망: 캐시 우드의 '향후 1년 내 큰 혁신 붐' 견해가 1년 넘게 일관됨. 진행자는 이를 대체로 타당하다고 보며, 이 영상은 장기 성장 관점 해설이고 특정 종목 단기 매매 지시는 없음. 리스크: 버핏지수가 역사적 고점 근처라는 점, 실질 GDP 개선 주장은 낙관적 가정에 기반한다는 점.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. and actually just highlighting that one point uh you know the the traditional benchmarks out there if what we're saying about disruptive innovation is correct and these s-curves are feeding one another uh so that these trends are accelerating it probably means the amount of creative destruction out there is going to be pretty serious and and i think it will hit again the traditional world order which today is represented by the broad-based benchmarks how's it going everyone it's sam we just had a really interesting exchange between elon musk kathy wood and talking about the buffett indicator so elon musk was asking kathy wood if the buffett indicator was too high now if you don't know about the buffett indicator this is basically what it is it's the u.s stock market market cap divided by gdp now this is at an all-time high so this was something that buffett made up or made he said it was probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at a given moment so this has been a flashing red light recently for people it it shows an overvalue of the stock market right obviously if stock market goes up but if the gross domestic product doesn't go up right you're just becoming more and more highly valued compared to what we're actually producing if gdp goes up a lot and the stock market goes down that doesn't really make a lot of sense either it's getting cheaper and cheaper in the market the last quarter century through the close of 2020 measured at year end the median s p 500 market cap to gdp so the buffett indicator is 85.6 percent now this ranges from 54 in 2008 because gdp was still you know up there but market cap of stocks dropped drastically to the great financial crisis which was the tech bubble right this was 131 things were overvalued right now we've seen it jump from 122 2019 147 in 2020 and now it's at 156 percent as of the last couple days now again uh elon musk asked kathy wood what she thought about this seeing does she think it's overvalued and i'll show you that in a second but before we get started if you guys don't mind there is a link down there to weeble in case you want a really cool platform you can deposit a hundred dollars you can get access to a platform like this helps out the channel a lot also there is a link down there to the patreon if you want to know exactly when i buy and sell stocks we got into muds today and we're up over six percent so just with what i invested which wasn't a ton of money you would have paid for six months of patreon just on this one trade so if you guys want to know when i buy and sell stocks and see kind of my opinion on the market and stuff like that you can check out the link down below to patreon but let's get into it here and see what kathy wood and what elon musk said elon musk said to kathy wood what do you think of the unusually high ratio of s p 500 market cap to gdp so he's saying okay what do you think about the buffett indicator it's at like all-time highs or really really high numbers he's basically saying kathy woods says gdp statistics evolve during the industrial age and do not seem to be keeping up with the digital age thanks to productivity real gdp growth probably is higher in inflation lower than reported suggesting that the quality of earnings has increased significantly now breaking that down a little bit so she says thanks to productivity real gdp growth probably is higher in inflation lower than reported so first of all we need to know what real gdp growth is well real gdp is an inflation adjusted measurement of a country's economic output over the course of a year so one way to think about this is gdp could go up year to year to year but if inflation is going up the same amount it's not really like we're getting any real gdp growth right so if this year we had 100 million dollars worth of gdp and then inflation was 10 and then next year we had 110 million worth of gdp we haven't really grown so the real gdp is about the same so she's saying that thanks to productivity real gdp growth is probably higher so we're actually seeing gdp real gdp go up more and inflation lower than reported so right now a good explanation for this would be in inflationary periods real gdp will be lower than nominal gdp and deflationary periods real gdp will be higher so she's saying we're actually almost seeing like a deflationary period even though inflation is going up slightly what she has said before is the fact that a lot of things are becoming less expensive like they talk about the convergence of all these different technologies right becoming cheaper and cheaper and how they think we're going to go through pretty much the roaring 20s like we're going to see so much so much growth we're going to see so much innovation at one time all these different technologies are going to converge and make things way cheaper they talk about sequencing you know being brought down to a very low number they talk about drones right where drones right now being manned by people not being manned would cost about seven dollars to deliver a package over 10 miles if it becomes autonomous it could drop down to a quarter just 25 cents we can talk about how quickly costs are falling so in the case of ai training costs are dropping about 37 per year when costs drop that quickly uh really there's a it unleashes a lot of creativity and problem solving uh that couldn't have taken place uh at any other time and we're seeing uh ai models growing tenfold per year so she's saying real gdp growth is probably going to be higher inflation is lower because we're actually seeing a massive amount of technology that just isn't isn't being really taken into account so we are going to have a higher quality of earnings over the coming years now this is just my take on it i'm no macro economist or anything like that but i think what she's saying is pretty right on track with what she's been saying over the last year that we're gonna have massive growth and i was listening to an hour-long presentation by kathy whittaker maybe it was 40 minutes yesterday and it almost felt like it was on repeat like it was an old an old video because she's saying the same stuff that she's been saying for a year now which is there is going to be a convergence between all these different technologies like i said it's going to create one of the largest booms that we've ever seen there's going to be so much technology that we're not even going to be able to really like comprehend how much new technology there is and she says too that this is going to be very different than 2001.

02. in 2001 when we had that tech boom and bubble there was a lot of a lot of excitement for the internet age there were all these new ideas being thrown out there but the money flowed into the market way faster than it should have right a lot of these were just ideas we we didn't really have the technology to do a lot of what people were thinking could be possible now due to the internet there was so much money flowing into the market that created this over exuberance in the market and it just wasn't ready for it however technology is greatly reducing the cost of many different technologies and they talked about in that video that bringing something down like a like mapping right for a genome or mapping doing a liquid test for cancer a couple years ago it might have been thirty thousand dollars and then it got brought down to ten thousand dollars that's great but it's still way too high for what will actually be profitable what what hospitals will i actually be willing to pay for it's just it brings it down it cuts a cost into a third but it's still way too high so once you hit a certain number though once it gets down low enough it becomes more efficient to do it that way and that can cause kind of a ripple effect with what we've seen and what they're saying we'll see in the market in a lot of different areas right from fintech to crypto to genomics all these different sectors that they're investing in there's gonna be a level right satellites where it just makes sense because we can bring down the satellite costs enough that a lot of different companies will want to send satellites up and it's gonna boom so that's what she's saying here she's saying elon you know i appreciate you saying that but we're going to see a level of innovation that we've never seen we're going to see real gdp growth that's higher and inflation lower than what's actually reported she doesn't care about the cost of eggs she cares about the cost of innovation that's what she's worried about that's what she's focused on that is what makes the market move so she's saying we're going to see a level of innovation we've never seen before so i hope you guys like this this was just kind of an interesting little back and forth i thought between some of the great minds of of the market right now between elon musk kathy woods even warren buffett in a way thank you guys so much i appreciate thank you for checking out weeble down below and my patreon if you're interested in seeing exactly what i'm buying and selling in real time and i will see you guys in the next video bye you