저자: My Financial Friend · 외국인
요약 보기
유튜버 Sam은 비트코인이 50주 이동평균선 부근까지 하락하자 포지션을 더 공격적으로 가져갔다고 밝힌다. 그는 과거 2019년과 2022년 사례를 들어 50주선이 상승장과 하락장에서 지지·저항 역할을 한다고 설명하고, 이 선을 지키는지에 따라 강세장 지속 여부를 판단할 수 있다고 본다. 또 중간선거에서 민주당 승리 확률이 100%로 표시된 점과 나스닥 하락을 언급하며, JP모건의 중간선거 후 S&P 500 상승 통계를 근거로 시장 조정을 매수 기회로 해석한다. 영상에서는 비트파이넥스에서 3배 레버리지 롱을 열었고 청산 가격은 약 49,000달러라고 밝히며, 제휴 링크와 가입 보너스를 소개한다. 또한 STRC가 100달러 아래에 머무는 이유를 두고 음모론적 추측도 제시한다. 영상은 투자 자문이 아니며 스스로 조사하라는 면책 문구를 덧붙인다.
다듬은 글
How are you, people? This is Sam. Bitcoin is falling to the 50-week moving average and I just got more aggressive in my positions . Why is that? Well, we have midterm elections now, and according to the betting markets, there is a 100% probability of a Democratic victory. The stock market falls after the close of trading.
Let's talk about all of this and why I just became more aggressive. If it's not too difficult, subscribe to see future videos like this. I'm in the pool house right now . So, excuse me if you hear— it turns out there's air conditioning here. This is quite strange. It's just like a warehouse, but I think it would be good for filming videos.
I wanted to be away from my family while baby Bitcoin slept. So yeah, I apologize if there are any strange sounds or visual disturbances. Now I'll switch this so you can see the right camera. Everything here is very high-tech. Oh, that's it. It looks good. OK. Let's switch back. Okay, we're doing this live.
So I apologize for that, but yes, it's a process that's in development while we're on the road. Now look at this. 100% probability, according to polls and Polymarket, that we will see a complete victory for the Democrats. The markets don't like it. If you look here, I'm not sure if MarketWatch will show it , but Robinhood was showing a negative, a 2% or 2.5% drop on Nasdaq.
So, as you can see, the Nasdaq fell by 2%. The markets don't like that. Bitcoin just fell sharply. It's now at 76,000. Some might say, "Well, that wasn't that drastic, was it?" If you've been in the market for a few cycles, that's nothing. And that's true, is n't it? This is not as significant volatility as we have seen in previous market cycles during “bear” markets, but for what we have seen recently, we have just dropped about $2,000 in a few hours.
And we almost perfectly touched that 50- week moving average, as you can see, stopping just a few dollars away from it. Why am I mentioning this? Well, the 50- week moving average serves as a level of resistance and support during bull and bear markets. As you can see, we rose slightly above it during the 2022 bear market, but immediately fell back below it and...
It really signaled the beginning of a bear market when we dropped below it and stayed there for a long time, got rejected by it , eventually broke up and almost turned it into support. We didn't touch it exactly, but it was, well, within a few hundred dollars of the 50- week moving average, and then we saw support here and support here again.
And then when we dropped below it, it really signaled the start of a bear market. So, many people are following this. Well, a similar situation occurred in 2019, as you can see here, when we broke through the 50-week moving average. That was a pretty important point where we, you know, made another push, got rejected from the 50-week, formed a new lower high and eventually fell to the lows.
And then we turned it into support. We did dip below it, but, you know, for a relatively short period, and then we saw support there, and that really signaled the start of a bull market, moving from what? Let me see. Somewhere from 8,500 all the way up to 69,000. So this is a very interesting point for Bitcoin , where we just went above it, and this will really tell us if the bull market is over ?
Will we turn this into support and continue the upward movement? Or we break it down, and then all the bears will be watching, you know, if we go lower, they'll say, "No, we're heading for new lows." And then we will keep an eye on the $58,000 mark. So I've become more aggressive, I'm talking a lot about Bitfinex.
I use a small portion of my portfolio to act more aggressively. And for this I use leverage. And I do this specifically with Bitcoin because it has less volatility. Slightly less volatility than altcoins. We don't see those massive candlestick shadows where you can simply be eliminated. We saw this in altcoins about a year ago, when many of them changed by 20-30% in an hour.
Bitcoin doesn't have that, so I think it's much safer and still has just as good upside potential during bull markets, being significantly safer and usually performing better than the average altcoin. So, I just became more aggressive. There is a special event on Bitfinex when you use my link in the link tree where you can speed up your deposit.
You can get up to $2,000 simply for depositing money into the platform as a new user. And every month we hold promotions where the more you trade, the more bonuses you get. So, I just opened a long position. I set it at $75,900. We have fallen a little below that mark. We are moving higher now, but to be clear, we can always fall even lower.
We may fall below the 50-week moving average. The liquidation point is a position with 3x leverage. So, the liquidation point is around $49,000 with a tail. Ever since the bull market, I've been saying that this is a very important level that we could see in a bear market. We could go down to it. So far , you know, we haven't fallen that low.
I don't necessarily think we're going to fall. I think the probability of us falling to the $50,000 mark is less than 50%, but there have been a lot of price swings in the past, during the 2022 bear market when the level pushed the price down, and then when we saw support in 2024 . So I feel pretty confident about this level.
And yes, I acted a little more aggressively. Now let me check if the recording is still going on. I wouldn't want him to stop. Amit says : “This is becoming a blue tsunami, not just a blue wave. Early exit polls show Democrats winning decisively in the Senate and House of Representatives. " The probability of this happening is now 100%, and QQQ has fallen significantly on this news." However, JPM claims that the S&P 500 rises 100% of the time within 6 months of a midterm election.
19 times out of 19, and it doesn't matter who wins. SPY is up an average of 13.8% over 12 months. So, this could be a bullish signal. When we see such a large pullback, it can be a buying opportunity, like I did today. Trump also told the Financial Times that the US has no immediate plans to strike Iran.
I think if the markets overreact to this news, Trump may try even harder to make some kind of peace deal with Iran to make things better for the markets. So I wouldn't be upset about it. I wouldn't be, you know, depressed by the thought that we're only going to fall over the next few months. No, I think this is an opportunity to buy quality companies and cryptocurrencies that you like.
As for me, I only want to buy Bitcoin in the crypto market. Um, besides crypto, I buy tech stocks that I really believe in. Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, um Google. I've been buying them for a few years now, and if we see a significant drop, I'll buy more. I think many of them have good prices now. STRC interests me because it will create significantly more buying pressure on Bitcoin.
Um, Mark B. says, "I have no idea why STRC is having such a hard time getting those last few cents. It's just stuck below 100. Personally, I think someone is preventing it from reaching 100, whether it's shorting it or some other means, um... Here you go. Um, some other means to stop STRC, right? And why would they do that?
Maybe to stop MicroStrategy from buying Bitcoin, right ? Maybe someone is hoarding. And it's a lot easier to stop MSTRC, um, and short it than to hold back the price of Bitcoin . So it's basically an artificial hold so they can buy more Bitcoin themselves instead of MicroStrategy. Maybe it's a little bit like a tinfoil hat conspiracy theory , um, but it makes sense.
Why else would it be so hard for them to reach 100 when it's so close, right? It hasn't reached 100 for months, although it's been very close a few times. Let me know what you think." you think. Thanks so much for watching. I'm getting more aggressive on Bitcoin. As I said, I've opened a new long position, or technically, significantly increased my existing long position.
And I'll be even more aggressive if the price drops even lower. Let me know what you think. Thanks so much. I appreciate it . See you soon. Bye. As a reminder, this is not financial advice. This is not legal advice. Do your own research. I will never write to you in the comments or in any other way to get you to invest in what I'm investing in or send me cryptocurrency.
Some of the links below the video are affiliate links. I may receive a commission , but it's at no additional cost to you. Of course, do your own due diligence.
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