저자: RayDalio/영상진행자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오의 장기 부채 사이클 이론을 소개하며, 현재 장기 부채 사이클 후반부에 있어 1930년대와 유사한 디플레이션·정치적 분열 위험이 있다는 주장. 달리오는 단기 경기순환(약 5~8년)과 장기 부채 사이클(60~80년)을 구분하고, 금리가 0%에 도달하면 1차 통화정책(금리 인하)이 작동하지 않고 2차(양적완화)로 넘어가며, 그마저 한계에 이르면 재정·통화정책 공조가 필요하다고 설명. 현재 위치에 대해 단기 사이클은 상당히 진행됐고 장기 사이클은 매우 늦은 단계라 중앙은행의 완화 여력이 제한적이라고 평가. 1929~32년, 2008~09년 모두 금리 0% 상황이었고, 1932~37년 회복은 중앙은행의 통화 발행과 자산 매입 때문이었다고 비교. 역사적으로 큰 부의 격차와 정책 무력화, 부상하는 강대국의 기존 강국 도전(중국 등) 조건에서 포퓰리즘·민족주의·갈등이 나타났다고 언급. 다만 역사가 정확히 반복되지는 않으며 블랙스완 같은 예측 불가 사건도 가능하다고 인정. 진행자는 이 위험을 근거로 장기 투자 관점을 제시하며 워런 버핏 전략을 인용. 단일 종목 비중 1% 이하 분산, 현금 보유, 감당 가능한 금액만 투자, 본인 리스크 허용도 평가를 권고하며 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시. 2020년 관련 종목 추천 플레이리스트 홍보.
다듬은 글
yeah yeah coming down yeah I just wonder where hi guys I'm then welcome to motivation to invest our mission is to motivate you to invest for your financial freedom by providing you with valuable investing tips and strategies hey Dalia one of the greatest investors of all time has not been stated that we are at the end of the long term debt cycle which lasts approximately 60 to 80 years thus a potential crash or market depression could be on the horizon tell us if you would how debt cycles unfold and if you would where where you think we are in the current debt cycle mm-hmm well first of all I think that there's productivity that we evolved and we learn how to do things better now raise our living standards and then I think there are two major debt cycles around that so the Wiggles that we see are mostly driven by debt cycles and they're cyclical because when you give credit you give buying power so you it's a net gain when you take back and you have to pay it's cyclical and so there's a short-term debt cycle which we call a business cycle we're used to that you don't have a recession central banks stimulate monetary policy and then you go up and then when the economy becomes too hot you put on the brakes and you have that cycle we're well acquainted with that cycle although I think it's interesting to talk about how it might be a little bit different this time but anyway it's interesting then there's the long term debt cycle which is the accumulation of that and as debts rise relative to incomes and in order to reverse that interest rates keep going down you hit zero interest rates and when you hit zero interest rates the first type of monetary policy what I call monetary policy one doesn't work and you go to the second type of monetary policy and that is central bank's printing money and buying financial assets which causes financial assets prices to rise and credit to go out quantitative easing right and when that ceases to work you go into a new type of monetary policy on what y'all call monetary policy three we'll talk about what that looks like but we are it's important to then say where are we right exactly where are we is we are relatively late in the shorter debt cycle we could tell my operating rates and unemployment rates and so I'm fairly well along in there and we are very late in the long-term debt cycle meaning the capacity of central banks to ease monetary policy is Lim's so what does the historical record tells us when we get to this converging end of the short term that cycle in the long term debt cycle I mean are we in for another debt crisis the most recent analogous periods in 1930s yeah and it's analogous in a number of ways okay and so the parallel 1929 to 32 debt crisis interest rates at zero 2008 to 2009 debt crisis interest rates at zero the only two times when central bank's printed money and bought financial assets and caused the recovery was from that 1932 to 1937 and the expansion that we've been in during that period we also as a result of this condition had a widening wealth gap and a widening opportunity gap and we had populism very much like two very similar services but so history doesn't always repeat itself precisely but are you suggesting that we could see something unfold both in economic and in sort of political terms of populism what we saw in the 1930s and with all that followed from there yes I just like to take a second and show the parallels yeah and and it's correct that history doesn't necessarily repeat itself but the cause-effect relationships are the important things to understand and they are analogous so on monetary policy the question is what happens when you hit zero interest rates and quantitative easing doesn't work as well we have a downturn let's just play with that because someday the damages will come right when you have a downturn the average amount of stimulation was 500 basis points of interest rate we got about half of that to film that we can do yeah and then you do quantitative easing so you can measure the difference between where we are by measures yeah yeah okay so tell us so what happens next so what happens next is it well first of all if you have a downturn and monetary policy is not effective the only way of dealing with that is the coordination between fiscal and monetary policy that's what history is yeah so just as interest rates it's as true as them when interest rates at zero you go to quantitative easing yeah it's as true that when you hit zero interest rates and you have quantitative easing not working the only thing that works is the coordination and monetization of deficits right okay so that is the historical comparison the big issue there is whether politics can allow that coordination because in a politically fragmented environment well what history is told us is that there is populism and conflict at this time so just to be clear I do again I just want to be very clear we've got a wrap-up go to go to a break in a second but something came what happened the nineteen thirties was the Great Depression nationalism and war essentially at the end of the nineteen thirties again I don't I know history doesn't repeat itself but are you saying that there is that real risk the avec of the same kinds of things with all of the effects that had unfolding in the next what history has shown that when you have a large wealth gap and you have a downturn and you have an ineffective monetary policy right and you're required to have coordination of monetary policy but that's a challenge and when you also have a rising power challenging an existing power in much the same way as the 30s in much same way as China is now rising to challenge that that those are important factors in determining the nature of the dynamic what's the solution well it's known that you cannot predict the unpredictable and these random Black Swan events can come out of nowhere I think we need to put this situation into perspective 200 years ago the US didn't even exist this situation is not as bad as World War two it's not as bad as the Great Depression in the 1920s I believe the stock market will recover in the long as it has done so many times before and this is just another one of those opportunities to award those contrarian investors Warren Buffett also agrees where he spoke at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting so what am i doing I'm following Warren Buffett's investment strategy with a little sprinkle of Ray Dalio and I'm buying and holding assets for the long term not every company will survive this crash and not every company will come out on top however some will and that is where you need to do your research not every Cruise Line will survive and not every airline will survive but the ones that do will give you big rewards my method is to take a low-risk high-reward approach not high-risk high-reward Ray Dalio one the greatest investors of all time offers a great method of diversifying your portfolio i'm diversifying my portfolio across a number of sectors both nationally and international with no more than 1% of my portfolio exposed to any individual stock so if that company does go bankrupt I've only lost 1% I will also be keeping a cash reserve to invest into property once this is all over now remember this is not financial advice and I'm not advising anyone to go and plow all their money into the stock mark instead you need to assess your own financial goals your risk tolerance and only invest what you can afford to lose don't invest any money which you might have to pay bills with or use in the short term so do you think the stock market is going to crash again and how are you preparing your portfolio comment your thoughts below want to know my favorite stock picks of 2020 check out my playlist below which includes many great stocks that I personally have analyzed and invested in
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