Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger - When To Sell A Stock

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버핏과 멍거는 보유 기업을 매도하는 기준을 주로 논의했다. 결론적으로 운영 기업은 거의 팔지 않으며, 매각은 해결할 수 없는 문제가 생겼을 때 주로 일어난다는 입장이다. 매도 기준은 연례보고서의 '그라운드 룰'에 명시되어 있으며, 1983년 이후 매년 적어 왔고 그 이전부터 같은 원칙을 가졌다고 설명했다. 버핏은 높은 가격을 제시받더라도 경제적 가치를 넘는 가격에는 기업을 팔지 않는다고 했다. 인수 대상 기업 창업주가 돈보다 사업을 사랑하는지 여부를 중시하며, 버크셔는 장기 보유를 보장하는 안정적 인수처라고 강조했다. 주식 매도에 대해 버핏은 필립 피셔의 '분석 오류 발견, 기업 본질 변화' 두 가지 매도 사유에 거의 동의하나 완전히 같지는 않다고 했다. 경제적 해자가 확실한 기업은 사실상 영원히 보유할 수 있다고 봤다. 과거 신문·지역 방송 같은 안정 자산도 20~25년 사이 경제적 특성이 크게 변했다고 언급하며, 10년마다 경제적 특성을 재평가한다고 했다. 버핏은 과거 매도 대부분이 더 좋은 투자처를 찾았기 때문이었다고 회고했고, 현재는 돈은 많지만 아이디어가 부족하다고 농담했다. 멍거는 50년 남은 젊은 시절이 더 낫다고 답했다. 언급 종목: 특정 자산의 가격 방향 예측 발언 없음(개별 종목 가격 전망 없음). 출연자 전망 및 목표가 없음.

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01. almost nothing has been written by you at any rate as far as I can tell on your criteria for selling a company that you have already you have previously purchased and I wonder if you could outline the criteria you might apply today to a sale of a company and whether you would go and go well it was way to put it would you agree with Phillip Fisher who said there were two reasons to sell a company or a stock one was when you discovered you made a mistake in your analysis and the company was not what you thought it was and the second when was when the something within the company had changed the management had changed or so on so no longer met your original criteria I'm glad you brought up Phil Fisher because he is a terrific mind and an investor he's probably in his 90s now and but his a couple of books he wrote in the early sixties roughly are classics and I advise everybody here was really interested in investments to read those two books from the earlier 60s and he's a nice man I went out to 40 years ago I dropped into his office in San Francisco tiny office and he was kind enough to spend some time with me and I'm a huge admirer of his the the criteria that we use for selling a business that we own control of are articulated in the annual report under the ground rules so in terms of businesses that we own we have set forth and I direct you there we've written those same ground rules every year since 1983 and actually we had those in our head for decades before that and we have this quirk which you should understand if we want our shareholders understand it that even though we got offered a price that was far above its economic value as we might calculate it going in but if we got offered a price for that for a business that we have now we have no interest in selling it you know we just we don't break off the relationships that we develop simply because we get offered a fancy price for something and we've had a chance to do that sometimes that may help us actually in acquiring businesses because both of the companies that I've committed to buy in the last few weeks both of them are very concerned about whether they have found a permanent home or not and people who build their businesses lovingly over for 30 or 40 or 50 years frequently care about a lot of people don't care about that and that's one of the things we evaluate when buying a business we we look at the owner and we say do you love the you know in effect we ask ourselves does he love the business or does he love the money nothing wrong with liking the money in fact we'd be a little disappointed if most of them didn't like the money but what in terms of whether the primacy is loving the money or loving the business that's very important to us and when we find somebody that loves their business and likes the money but loves their business we are a very very desirable home for them because we're just about the only people that they can deal with of size where we can commit that they are going to be part of this operation really forever and and and be able to deliver on that promise I tell sellers that the only the only person that can double-cross them is me I can double-cross them but there's never going to be a takeover a Berkshire there's never going to be a management consultant come in and say I think you better do this there's never going to be a response to Wall Street saying why aren't you a pure play on this or that and therefore you ought to suspend us off there none of that's going to happen and we can we can tell them with a hundred percent assurance that that for a very long time that if they make a decision to come with Berkshire they that that's that that decision will be the final decision as to where their company resides saw unless of those couple conditions which are extremely unusual that are described in the ground rules of prevail we will not be selling operating businesses even though someone might offer us far more than than logically they're worth the question about stocks as we're not quite with phil fisher on that but we're very close we we love buying stocks where we think the businesses are so solid have such economic advantage that we can essentially ride with them forever but you've heard me talk about newspapers earlier today we would have thought newspapers 2025 years ago I think Charlie and I probably thought a daily newspaper you know in single newspaper town which practically all are it's probably about the solidest investment you could find we might have thought a network TV affiliated station was about a soliton as you could find and they were very solid but events have over the last 20 or 25 years have have certainly changed that to some degree and maybe to a very very big degree so we will occasionally reevaluate the economic characteristics that we see 10 years out from the ones that we saw 10 years ago and maybe come to a somewhat different conclusion the first 20 years of investing for me or maybe more my decision to sell almost always was based on the fact that I found something else I was dying to buy I mean I sold socks at you know at three times earnings to buy stocks at two times earnings 45 years ago because I was always running out of money now I run out of ideas I've got a lot of money but no ideas and you know I I'm not sure which is better what do you think Charlie I think you were way better off when you had 50 years ahead of you and less money I still think I have 50 years I had a major lolly yeah we almost never sell an operating business and when it does happen it's usually because we've got some trouble we can't fix