저자: LiLu · 외국인
요약 보기
가치투자의 기본 개념은 벤저민 그레이엄 이후 70여 년이 지나도 여전히 유효하다는 결론이다. 핵심 원칙 1: 주식은 단순한 종이가 아니라 회사의 지분(부분 소유권)이며, 따라서 주식 가치평가는 회사 전체를 가치평가하는 것과 같아야 한다. 핵심 원칙 2: 금융자산 평가는 미래 현금흐름을 할인하는 것이며, 미래는 예측이 어려우므로 안전마진(margin of safety)을 두어야 한다. 낮은 가격에 사면 불리한 사건이 일어나도 게임에서 탈락하지 않는다. 핵심 원칙 3: 시장(Mr. Market)은 감정적이고 비합리적으로 행동하는 존재로 생각하고, 시장이 불리하게 움직여도 흔들리지 않는 마음가짐을 가져야 한다. 가치투자는 좋은 것을 싸게 사는 '바겐'의 개념이며, 모두가 원하는 방식이지만 실제로 제대로 실천하는 전문투자자는 극소수다. 대다수는 주식이 종이 조각이므로 정보와 이론으로 주가 움직임을 맞히는 것이 성공 투자라고 보고, 시장을 존중하거나 두려워해야 한다고 본다. 그러나 이 설명자는 이런 접근이 더 설득력 있어 보이지만 실제로는 다수가 따르는 방식이라고 지적한다. 학생에게 권하는 것은 여러 접근법의 결과를 기본 연구로 먼저 확인하라는 것이다. 지난 100년간 많은 연구가 진행됐고, 제대로 실천된 가치투자자가 장기간 시장을 꾸준히 상회했으며, 거의 모든 다른 전략은 시장과 비슷하거나 크게 뒤처졌다는 결론이 명확하다. 특정 종목이나 자산에 대한 가격 전망, 목표가, 기간은 언급되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
the basic concept of values uh investing obviously is many many decades old but today i think it is as irrelevant as when it was first laid out by benjamin graham and columbia a seven decades ago there's essentially just the three basic ideas the first one is the stock is not a piece of a paper that you treat but is it represented fractional ownership of a company and therefore valuing the stock ought to really have a basic variance of valuing the company as a whole and then secondly that evaluating any financial asset that you have to really predict in the future uh to discounted the cash flow of the future cass fernies and the future is inherently difficult to predict and therefore you really want to leave yourself a margin of safety so that you could be wrong or you could be right but because the future is a distribution of opportunity i mean with statistic possibilities say you bet on something that ninety percent of the chances you could be right but then the ten percent chance occurred and so all of a sudden become a hundred percent so you want to leave enough a margin of safety in other words you want to buy at a low enough of a price even if all the adverse events occurred against you in the future you will still be in the game it doesn't mean you won't lose money but it just means that you do not lose so much that you'll be out of the game because investing is really a long game a complaint over the life of anybody's career and so you want to be really in the game somehow over the long haul and the third concept is mr market to figure out a frame of mind to think that when the market is against you if you really look at it as a uh a neurotic uh mr market that's a prone for emotional and irrational behaviors so those are the three basic concepts at the heart of it is obviously it is this bargain idea that you want to really get what you pay for now obviously that's what everybody wanted and if everybody want the same thing you would think that all of the professional investors will be value investor and that's just a further thing from the truth in fact value investing is properly practiced constitutes a tiny small minority of all the investment professionals majority of people hold a different views and let me just articulate for them the alternative views about the investment number one that yes stock legally represent the fractional claims the fraction of ownership but is first and foremost a piece of a paper you can treat all the time and therefore it follows that successful investing lies in the successful guessing of the stock movement based on whatever informed theories or practices that you can find and thirdly the market is to be respected indeed to be feared because they really through the market you can actually find a value and through the market you can actually buy and sell so this here you go a different view and it sounds even more persuasive than the first two views that i laid out as a value investor in fact i would say majority of the people really follow the ladder rather than the formal so as a young student trying to get into the business which way do you follow i would suggest that before you do that you want to go through some fundamental studies as to the result of various different approaches and philosophies unfortunately there has been numerous studies have done because we kept a pretty good track record uh over the last 100 years at least is it uh and and all the studies that have uh given an unmistakable conclusion that the true value of investors has properly practiced have consistently outperformed the market whereas all just about all other strategies uh either match the market or severely underperformed the market over a long period of time
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