저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
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주식과 회계를 독학하는 방법에 대한 두 투자자의 대담 영상이다. 투자 종목 전망이나 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 등장하지 않는다. 결론: 좋은 투자자가 되려면 방대한 독서와 기업 조사를 꾸준히 해야 하며, 특정 교재 하나로는 충분하지 않다. 독서 방법: 어린 시절 오마하 공공도서관의 회계·금융 서적을 모두 빌려 읽었다. 틀린 내용도 많이 배웠다고 회상한다. 비즈니스 잡지: 두 사람 모두 대형 비즈니스 잡지를 통해 다양한 기업 경험을 가장 많이 얻었다고 말한다. 기업 리서치 방법: 5~10개 기업을 골라 제품을 익히고, 연차보고서와 10년치 기사 등을 읽으며 몰입한다. 직원이나 CEO가 된 것처럼 생각하라고 권한다. 질문 기법: 경쟁사, 직원, 전직 직원, 공급업체, 유통업체, 고객에게 질문한다. 앤디 그로브의 '실버 불릿' 질문(경쟁사 중 하나만 없앤다면 누구이고 이유는 무엇인가)을 활용한다. 저널리즘 접근: 기업 조사는 기자가 기사를 쓰듯 진행하며, 6개월 뒤 '이 회사는 얼마의 가치가 있다'는 글을 쓰는 것을 목표로 한다. 참고 자료: 밸류라인(Value Line)의 대기업 연혁 자료를 추천한다. 여기서 ROE, 매출 성장률, 이익률의 과거 추이를 보고 '왜'를 물으며 향후 10년 흐름을 그려보라고 한다. 핵심 원칙: 계속 '왜'를 묻고, 답을 깊은 이론 구조와 연결하는 것이 중요하다. 과정이 고되지만 재미있다고 말한다. 리스크: 질문으로 얻은 답변은 편향을 감안해 걸러서 들어야 한다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 전망은 없다.
다듬은 글
and the question you ask is a very good one about you know in terms of accounting and finance what's the best way to teach yourself i i was always so interested in it from such a young age that that i my my approach was to go to the omaha originally was to go to the omaha public library and just take out every book there was on the subject and i learned a lot a lot i learned a lot that wasn't true in the process too i got very interested in charting and all that sort of thing and buying stocks but but i i i did it by just a tremendous amount of reading but it was easy for me because you know it was like going to baseball games or something of the sort and in terms of naming specific texts in accounting and i think you may re you may want to read some of the better even magazine articles that have appeared i mean there's been there been or newspaper articles there have been some some good commentary about accounting there uh i don't have can you think charlie of any specific texts or anything we could recommend i think both of us learn more from the great business magazines than we do anywhere else it's such an easy shorthand way of getting a vast variety of business experience just to riffle through issue after issue after issue covering a great variety of businesses and if you get the mental habit of relating what you're reading to the basic structure of the underlying ideas being demonstrated you gradually accumulate some some wisdom about of us investing i don't think you can get to be a really good investor over a broad range without doing a massive amount of reading i don't think there's any one book that will do it for you yeah you might think about picking out five or ten companies where you feel quite familiar with their products maybe but not necessarily so familiar with their financials and all of that but pick out something so at least you understand what if you understand their products you know what's going on in the business itself and then you know get lots of annual reports and through the internet or something else get all the magazine articles that have been written on it on those companies for five or ten years just sort of immerse yourself as if you were either going to work for the company or they'd hired you as the ceo or you're going to buy the whole business i mean you could look at it in any of those ways and what and when you get all through ask yourself what do i not know that i need to know and back many years ago i would go around and i would talk to i would talk to competitors always uh you'd talk to employees of the company and ask those kind of questions that's in effect what i did with my friend lauren or davidson uh when i first met him at geico except i started from ground zero but i just kept asking him questions and that's what it really is you know one of the questions i would ask if i were interested in in the abc company i would i would go to the xyz company and try and learn a lot about it now you you know there's spin on what you get but you learn to discern essentially you're being a reporter i mean it's very much like journalism and if you if you ask enough questions andy grove has in his book he talks about the silver bullet you know you talk to the competitor and you say if you had a silver bullet and you could only put it through the head of one of your competitors which one would it be and why well you'll learn a lot if you ask questions like that over time and you ask yes somebody in the xyz industry and you say if you're going to go away for 10 years and you had to put all your money into one of your competitors the stock of one of your competitors not your own which one would it be and why just keep asking and asking and asking and you'll have to discount the answers you get in certain ways but you will be getting things poured into your head that then you can use to reformulate and and and do your own thinking about why you why you evaluate this business at this or that the accounting you know you just sort of have to labor your way through that might i mean you may be able to take some courses even in that but the the biggest thing is to find out how businesses operate and you know who am i afraid of if if we're running geico you know who do we worry about why do we worry about them you know who would we like to put that silver bullet through i'm not going to tell you that the uh they you know it's it you keep asking those questions and then you go to the guy they want to put the silver bullet through and find out who he wants to put this over him like who wakes up the bugler you know and everything berlin song and that's the that's the way you approach it and you'll be learning all the time uh you can talk to current employees ex-employees vendors suppliers distributors retailers i mean there's customers all all kinds of people and and you'll learn but but it is a it's an investigative process it's a journalistic process and in the end you want to write the story i mean you're doing a journalistic enterprise and six months later you want to say the xyz company is worth this amount because and you just start in and write the story and some companies are easy to write stories about and other companies are much tougher to write stories about we try to look for the ones that are easy charlie yeah for the histories of the thousand biggest corporations laid out in digest form i think value line is in a class by itself that one volume really tells a lot about the histories of our of our best companies if you just look there's 1700 of them if you look at each page and you look at sort of what's happened in terms of return on equity in terms of and and in terms of sales growth profit margin all kinds of things then you say why did this happen who let it happen you know what's what's that chart going to look like the next 10 years because that's what you're really trying to figure out not not not the price chart but the chart about business operation you you're trying to print the next 10 years of value line in your head and there's some companies that you can do a reasonable job with and there's others that are just too tough but that that's what the game is about and it can be a lot of i mean if you have some predilection toward it it can be a lot of fun i mean the the the the process is as much fun as as the conclusion that that you come to of course what he's saying there when he talks about why that's the most important question of all and it doesn't apply just to investment it applies to the whole human experience you want to get smart the question you got to keep asking is why why why why and you have to relate the answers to us a structure of deep theory and you got to know the main theories and it's mildly laborious but it's also a lot of fun
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