저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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비트코인 반감기 이후 과거 사이클 가격 패턴을 분석하고, 2024년 현물 ETF 승인으로 기관 자금 유입이 본격화돼 비트코인이 주류 자산이 될 것이라 주장. 과거 사이클 평균을 적용하면 18개월 후 큰 상승 여지가 있다고 제시하나 본인은 투자 조언이 아니라 추측이라고 명시. 법정화폐 가치하락 우려 속 BTC가 금을 대체할 수 있다는 견해.
다듬은 글
so there's been a couple of having cycles that have happened and I asked him to go back and look at the price performance one month after a having 3 months 6 months 9 months 12 months and 18 months after a having and what you notice is that there are these moments initially where essentially when you go through a Bitcoin having people are sort of reassessing what's happening and they're trying to figure it out that's sort of what I would say is happens in the first month and roughly what also happens in the first 3 months hey guys welcome back to Everyday Finance in this video chamoth piapia discusses Bitcoin and crypto in January just a few days before the US Securities and Exchange Commission gave its approval 11 spot Bitcoin exchange traded in a recent episode of the popular all-in podcast billionaire invest chamoth Palapa expressed a highly optimistic view on bitcoin's future in 2024 he made four key predictions regarding the impact of new products on the leading cryptocurrency by market cap according to chamoth 2024 will be a pivotal year for Bitcoin as the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs will attract a substantial increase in allocation from institutional investors this development has long been anticipated by Bitcoin investors champ am's second prediction suggested that Bitcoin would regain its status as a mainstream asset driven by the growing demand through ETFs the billionaire also foresaw a future where Bitcoin would gain widespread recognition and acceptance even among those who have been staunchly against it in this scenario even the Boomers would find it effortless to purchase and hold the cryptocurrency chat's ultimate forecast indicated that Bitcoin would be integrated into the convention Financial vocabulary by the conclusion of 2024 the approval of ETFs has surpassed all expectations even those of chath who initially made these predictions recent reports indicate that us spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold over 855,000 Bitcoin while Global ETFs hold over a million at current prices this amounts to over $67 billion in a recent episode of the all-in podcast chamoth emphasizes the significance of ETFs and the upcoming having event predicting a substantial Bull Run for Bitcoin in the coming months charmouth notes that in previous Cycles bitcoin's price remained relatively stable for 3 to six months after the having events however after the six month things really heated up and prices skyrocketed he foresees a similar sequence of events occurring in 2024 and 2025 both in terms of prices and increas adoption and lots of things Cham Palapa discusses so please watch the video to end and like share this video And subscribe our Channel everyday Finance thanks I thought it would be good to talk about crypto for a couple of reasons one is because we just had the having at the end of April when that happen the having is where just for folks that don't know the way that Bitcoins are created is by solving these complex mathematical algorithms that take a lot of time and energy and and money and when you solve it you get rewarded with some number of Bitcoin and roughly every four years that reward gets cut in half it's called a having and this week I saw somebody who reminded me all this and I just want to give this guy a proper shout out so his name is Wes kasaris and Wes in Silicon Valley I would say really was Agent Zero of Bitcoin he was the one in 2010 that introduced it to me I remember he reminded me of the story actually we were at Oren hummus and he's like he's Argentinian he's a GRE so I'm going to try to cop he's like you have to buy the beatcoin so I heard the story I fell in love with it I remember I called my family office I'm like buy me a million of these things and he was like or a million dollars worth and he was like are you crazy and I was like no this just a little appetizer we'll get to the main main course anyways he has done a phenomenal job of understanding and prosing Bitcoin and want to thank him because he really put me on to this but he mentioned something to me when I saw him a couple days ago which is you should really look at the pattern of Bitcoin after a having and so I was really curious and so I had a guy on my team Quinton put this together so Nick let me just let's go to the first page so why is this interesting so here's a little bitcoin price analysis for you guys so there's been a couple of having cycles that have happened and I asked him to go back and look at the price performance 1 month after a having 3 months 6 months 9 months 12 months and 18 months after a having and what you notice is that there are these moments initially where essentially when you go through a Bitcoin having people are sort of reassessing what's happening and they're trying to figure it out that's sort of what I would say is happens in the first month and roughly what also happens in the first 3 months but then within 6 months to a year year and 18 months of these things there are these crazy price appreciation cycles that happen so that's what this page shows which is you know 18 months after the first having the Bitcoin price returned 45x after the second having it returned almost 28x and after this third having it returned almost an adex which is really incredible returns in such a short period of time if you go to the next page and so if you if you graph that this is what it starts to show which is what is this price performance after each of these having Cycles now why is that interesting well it's interesting because on top of this having which theoretically if history is a guide we should see some price appreciation obviously the other thing that's happened is we've commercialized Bitcoin and we talked about this sort of as my big prediction for 2024 which is these ETFs are really going to allow Bitcoin to cross the chasm and have its sort of Central Key moment right and so if you apply the averages and again these are just averages they're by no means predictions okay so I just want to qualify that these are this is not Financial advice this is not Financial advice these are just guesses markets were filled with a palpable sense of anticipation as expectations grew for the approval of United States Regulators there has been a significant shift in the market for ethereum ETF products which is a positive development this turnaround comes after just a few weeks and it has brought renewed optimism for both Bitcoin and altcoins providing analysis on potential targets including a $80,000 price for BTC with a very clean priced action on BTC in his recent analysis Michael the founder and CEO of a trading firm discussed the potential future of X he anticipates a test at $67,500 before reaching $68,000 the market is eagerly awaiting the approval of an ethereum ETF which could further Drive the upward Trend a well-known commentator Bitcoin has set a target of $80,000 for May with a possibility of reaching $95,000 in the following month however a sharp decline is also expected in June despite this the overall timeline for reaching the local top remains unchanged in a subsequent discussion bit quent who accurately predicted bitcoin's previous all-time highs has set Q3 of this year as the deadline for a global top let's get back to chamoth piaia interview we took these and we applied it to the price of Bitcoin and if you go to the next page you start to see what could happen if you just take the average of the last few Cycles so because the first cycle was so extreme and you start to oh so you're just doing cycle two and three here to be clear just the averages of cycle two and three and what you start to see is some really meaningful appreciation and when I talked to Wes about this how he explained it which I which makes a lot of sense to me is there are a lot of countries that will never look at Bitcoin credibly even if they support it the US may be one of those but there's an increasing body of countries that will become dual currency and they will look at their local currency and then they will look at Bitcoin and they will say both of these two things are needed one when you're transacting on a daily basis for random goods and services and two when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value you'll use something like BTC and I think that's a very powerful concept and if you look at what this price chart could indicate is that if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional utility for hard assets and I think if you marry that with this worry that some folks have about dollar debasement you start to see some really interesting opportunities so I just thought that this was a interesting thing that he that he here's our disclaimer interesting thing that he put me on I thought I'd share that with you I'll publish this on Twitter but that's your crypto corner for the year folks no no no there's a there is a plausible case where 40 million of those folks show up because you're talking about a structural part their wealth creation right so for example like you know Biden President Biden talked about giving people a head start by eliminating their debt that's a narrow issue and the reason it's a narrow issue there's just as many people that don't have debt and just as many people that paid off their debt and it creates a lot of Haves and Have Nots right and there's all these rules around who will get the debt relief Etc you end up touching four or five million people maximum but if there are 50 million people who have now decided to have at least a hedge Against The Establishment and the traditional Financial system and you are threatening to take that wealth away yeah I could see how 80% of those folks show up to The Ballot Box and say all right which one of you will just leave me alone and if the answer is President Trump then they're all going to vote for president Trump based on chamo's analysis it is suggested that Bitcoin has the potential to surpass $500,000 per coin by October in 2025 which is exactly 18 months after based on the chart the target implied by the last Hing cycle is 497499 however the chart indicates that prices could potentially go even higher with Bitcoin reaching a staggering 1.14 million if the average of Cycles 2 and three is applied the chart also shows that Bitcoin experienced a 45.5 2x increase 18 months after the first Hing a 20 7.92 X increase after the second and a 7.8x increase 18 months after the 3D even if this cycle is stunted like the 2021 cycle experts like chamath still anticipate Bitcoin prices to rise significantly before the cycle concludes in 2025 alongside price movements chamoth is also enthusiastic about the increased adoption of Bitcoin particularly among institutions and how it will impact Bitcoin prices if you learn something from this video then please like this video And subscribe our Channel everyday finance and we will meet in next video thanks
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