저자: MikeJones · 외국인
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결론: 소비·물가·재고 지표가 서로 맞지 않아 시장 방향성이 불확실하며, 원자재·에너지 가치주 강세와 경기민감·광고 관련 성장주 약세 흐름이 이어질 수 있다는 진단. 캐시 우드 발언 소개: 캐시 우드가 월간 인플레이션·통화정책 데이터를 공개하며 이례적으로 '이해가 안 된다'고 인정했다는 점을 강조. 소비 지표: 4월 개인소비지출은 명목 0.9%, 실질 0.7%로 강했으나 미시간대 소비자심리지수는 역대 저점 수준으로 하락해 괴리가 큼. 소비자신용: 3~4월 소비자신용 증가액이 370억·520억 달러로 평소(약 50~60억 달러)보다 크게 늘어, 향후 신용 접근성 악화를 우려한 선제적 차입으로 해석. 저축률: 저축률이 코로나 이전 8%에서 4.4%로 하락, 2008년 이후 최저 수준. 물가 부담으로 저축이 어렵다고 설명. 물가 체감: 식당 치킨샐러드 가격이 수년간 8.5달러에서 19달러로 오른 사례 등을 들어 생활비 부담을 설명. 재고 지표: 월마트 재고 33% 증가, 타깃 재고 42% 증가. 소비 구조 변화로 타깃이 재고 처분을 위해 가격 인하에 나설 가능성 언급. 섹터 전망: 에너지·유틸리티 등 가치(밸류) 섹터가 인플레이션기에 강하고, 긴축이 끝나면 성장주로 순환매가 올 수 있으나 시점은 불확실. 경기민감 소비재·광고 의존 기업(소셜미디어, 틱톡 경쟁 영향)은 약세 우려. 광고 시장: 유튜브 등에서 스폰서 광고 수요가 급감했다고 언급, 구글 등 광고 기업 실적에 부정적 영향 가능성 제기. 리스크: 지표 간 괴리로 인한 불확실성, 유가 등 공급측 요인, 긴축 지속 여부. 출연자 전망: 진행자 본인의 견해로, 가치주 강세 후 성장주 반등이 언젠가 올 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
hey guys mike here so about once a month usually kathy wood our convex and her team come out with data they compiled about inflation where they see it going monetary physical policy stuff like that and how it's affecting the market overall and it's very rare that you see uh any fund manager for that possibility come out and actually say they're confused like i actually admit it i mean that that's something you just don't see and i appreciate it when they do it every once in a while you get one that says that and that's what you're gonna say in this video today you know i take the 45 minutes for you guys as usual come pat it down as short amount of time as possible to give you the highlights and stuff uh the rest of stuff you've heard a million times over and so you know hopefully you get something out of this and she does make really i don't say points i mean she puts the dad out there but i'll kind of give you what i think because it really coincides with a lot of videos i've been putting out lately and the one thing i want you to take away from this is remember if you didn't see friday's video i'll link it at the end we are in a scientific experiment right now nobody knows where this is going because there's never been a time where with this kind of macro data and all these different indicators coming out that don't add up okay and we're gonna kind of i'm gonna touch base on that more as we go but you know this is the first thing she touches base on is it pretty much what i've been saying too that some of this stuff just isn't really adding up now the consumption indicators that have come out over the last month are quite confusing if you look at the macro numbers that came out uh personal consumption expenditures for april uh came out at 0.9 percent that's that's nominal so that includes inflation excluding inflation 0.7 percent uh so that was a pretty strong report after after a a great degree of sluggishness the reason it's surprising is uh we also got the university of michigan's consumer sentiment index and it fell it fell to a new low and we're back to where we were in 0809 so that is not a good place and and it's hard to understand why consumers would be spending so much the other the other confusing statistic to me is consumer credit the change in consumer credit outstanding now this includes both revolving so credit cards and installment debt and these are huge numbers for march and april 37 billion and 52 billion normally we're used to seeing six billion or five billion now i have seen this before at uh turning points in the cycle when consumers or small businesses probably more the latter but applying as consumers they are worried about their ability to get credit in the future so they take down their credit lines and um we're wondering if uh that's part of what's going on right now the other uh puzzle here is the consumer saving rate which uh peaked at i believe 34 in april or may of 2020 uh dropped was and has been revised down and and it has dropped to 4.4 percent so pre-covet we were at eight percent uh we're down to four point four percent and we haven't seen that level since 08 right around the time lehman uh went bankrupt uh so it's confusing uh the combination of sentiment and savings low savings very low sentiment um uh the consumer would not seem to be in a spending mood and don't forget to hit that like subscribe button guys if you get something out of this and so hopefully that makes sense i mean you got consumer sentiment as bad as it was no eight and think about oh wait the financial crisis we thought the whole banking system was coming down we've never seen the real estate market crash and burn like that people getting evicted and foreclosed on it record rates we've never seen before okay we got none of that going on right now yeah we got the same sentiment and why simple inflation costs like every time you go to fill your car up at you know the gas station it goes higher and higher right every time you try to go people try to apply to buy a house the mortgage rates are through the roof the prices are through the roof everybody goes somebody tries to go renew their lease the rents are up between you know 10 20 right and so and i can go on and on but that's why i mean it's like my brothers told me yesterday he says you know he he's been a cop for 18 years he used to go to the same place before 2020 and everything shut down to buy a chicken salad i mean it's the same thing every day eight dollars and fifty cents for years right between eight and eight fifty and just went back for the first time the i think it was friday and end up the same exact salad 19 19 he was like what it's a salad got some leaves one piece of chicken i mean that's from 850 to 19.
that's and they said we're sorry you know i'm like yeah we get we can we hear that everywhere and so that's why the consumer sentiments down so you think usually consumer cinnamon is down people aren't spending but people are still spending and that's where you know the overall this 2.3 trillion will keep hearing about if you didn't watch my little uh kool-aid or punch bowl video i'll put that in as well that's where all that money's still setting out we just don't know and i still can't find out you know per like bracket of income how much of that is actually in savings and reason of course the savings rate is down because the costs are going through the roof that's why it's hard to save right when you're actually having to save as much when also now inflation is doing this over and over and over a month over a month over a month right and so some of the stuff just don't add up and as far as the credit cards yeah people are applying for i told you that applying for millions of credit cards i know people that are taking helocs out on their house just in case right because why not they just want to have it just in case they don't know what's going to happen so you know that's what they're doing so that doesn't surprise me at all but you know it's it's just interesting to hear any fund manager say especially from hershey's used to be an economist that it's kind of confusing things just aren't really adding up and that's why i told you in friday's video that this is a scientific experiment never been done before with this many things going on at one time okay it's usually a couple over here a couple over here but not all of this being put in happening at the same time and that's why nobody can figure out what's going to happen just the way it is okay we know it's kind of speculate so you know the next thing she goes over which i find to be interesting is inventories and this is going to be interesting to see how this plays out when it comes to costs we are seeing inventory increases the likes of which i have never seen in my career and i'm talking about on a company by company basis so walmart sales up three percent on a comparable store basis year over year which means they're probably down in unit terms inventory is up 33 which probably means in real terms taking away inflation they were up 25 to 30 percent um well that's interesting because more than half of walmart's sales are in the groceries are in groceries and you're not going to see huge inventory buildups in groceries and so what does this say for the other half are their inventories up 80 percent uh you know it's it's kind of crazy to think that that's a possibility but it's a possibility and target targets inventories we're up 42 percent now it has less in the way of groceries as a share of the total uh so 42 percent uh maybe if you x groceries was up 50 to 60 percent um these are crazy numbers for two of the best managed companies from a supply chain management point of view in the world and so maybe maybe a jamie dimon is starting to see this backing up in other ways um in in in terms of the way the information he has and i find this one to be probably the most interesting because you know we i mean these are two you know of the most well-run companies out there what you think about them they didn't get to be where they're at because you know they're poorly managed okay they're two of the conglomerates out there as far as brick and mortar retail and especially targets has been coming on like a freight train over the last five years and to see those kind of inventory levels i mean any i don't know if you saw it but i talked about the ceo of target going on tv after earnings and he talked about it they really mismanaged it i mean they couldn't see this coming again they just couldn't see it coming supply chain issues were so bad and now so they got all this inventory that they don't need because the consumer actually switched on what they're buying so now they're kind of stuck so good thing is hey if looking for some deals i have a sneak suspicion target's gonna have some pretty good deals on certain items because they need to get rid of it what happens when you need to get rid of something you've got so much inventory you lower the prices you know so that's gonna be interesting to see how it affects it but again it can't be in groceries right i mean it's perishable stuff so uh probably not there so you know that's just how is that going any effect on inflation what's it gonna do and so we're gonna see on that one and the last one she goes on talking about is one i've been talking about a lot which is oil gas and utilities which is absolutely just decimating the average day person out there you're seeing in the in the um sectors as equities are broken out by something called gex sectors energy energy they tend to do well in inflationary times if we're right and fiscal monet fiscal and monetary policy are are both very tight and and getting tighter uh then at some point this is going to flip we will flip away from these this value rotation and back to growth and it couldn't happen too soon for us of course uh on the um on the losing side consumer discretionary and of course the the um any advertising sensitive company is getting hit here especially on the social side and especially with the the competition from uh tick tock so it's hard to tell how much of this is a competitive dynamic and how much of it is an economic dynamic it's probably both and of course she's right because i mean these are cyclical right i mean i've said that but the problem is when that's the question when's it going to happen and if you are on the right side of that trade when these start the tank because they're going to tank like tech stocks did starting in november it's going to be fast until right now um you know you're going to make a lot of money and as far as the inflation i mean look i don't remember high inflation from 2011 2014 but oil skyrocketed right and so you know i don't think that has much to do with it as infrastructure manipulation politics i mean they don't call opec a cartel for no reason okay and so you know that's just is what it is and so we have to deal with that eventually though it will flip and that money will go somewhere and so you know the other one is i just want to throw that in about the ad revenue i can tell you firsthand being here on youtube that has dropped off a cliff you don't see as much even from other youtubers you don't see much affiliate like them getting paid to put you know sponsorship in the videos and stuff like that you don't see that anywhere near as much right now i mean that has been cut and of course competition no doubt tick tock has taken shares from twitter and other companies and stuff like that but you know it's just one of those things if you're in those stocks you know when they report earnings i can't imagine it's going to be great and so you know we'll see how google does because that's where they get a lot of their money from so i just want to bring that out to you shortening down from 46 minutes to whatever this video ends up being for you so hopefully you got something out of that and stuff hit the like subscribe button if you did really appreciate that guys and i'll see you guys tomorrow you
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