저자: MikeJones · 외국인
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시장이 오전 상승 후 급락한 이유를 짚는 영상. 제이미 다이먼 발언과 연준 데일리 총재 발언이 하락 원인으로 제시됨. 제이미 다이먼(JP모건 CEO)은 경기 허리케인(대형 충격) 가능성을 경고하며 시장이 과소평가하고 있다고 주장. 발언 직후 지수가 약 2%, 이후 약 3%까지 급락 후 일부 회복. 데일리 연준 총재(샌프란시스코)는 6월·7월 금리 인상 후 9월에도 50bp 인상 가능성을 언급하며 연말 2.5% 수준까지 갈 수 있다고 발언. 인플레이션이 충분히 잡힐 때까지 긴축 의지를 강조하고, 중립금리 이상으로의 긴축 가능성도 열어둠. 연준 대차대조표 축소(QT)는 6월 15일경 시작, 월 475억 달러에서 시작해 9월 950억 달러로 확대, 3년간 약 3조 달러 규모 국채·MBS 매각 예정. 이는 시장 유동성을 줄이는 추가 금리 인상과 같다고 해석. 글로벌 실적 전망은 상향보다 하향 조정이 많아지는 추세로, 중국 경기 둔화 우려와 맞물려 기업 실적에 대한 경계가 커지고 있다고 설명. 결론: 긴축 장기화, 유동성 축소, 실적 하향 우려가 겹치며 증시 하방 압력이 커졌다는 진단. 영상에서 구체적 종목 추천이나 목표가는 제시되지 않음. 리스크: 인플레이션 지속 시 추가 긴축, 우크라이나 전쟁·중국 재개방 변수, 공급·수요 균형 회복 여부에 따라 전망 변동 가능.
다듬은 글
hey guys mike here so you might notice that we were up nicely this morning and the market did an about face and started heading down very abruptly and it was two things happening back to back which i'm gonna show you and the first one had to do with jamie dimon and i can't prove this but i'm pretty sure he was standing backstage at a conference before he went out and said what he said probably stand next to his assistant holding his phone and looked at that person and said you want to see a magic trick i'm going to show you how to make money disappear just like that by using my words and that's pretty much what he did it's a hurricane it's right now it's kind of sunny things are doing fine you know everyone thinks that the fed can handle this that hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way we just don't know if it's a minor one or superstorm sandy or uh yeah sandy or or uh andrew or something like that and it's you better brace yourself and as you can see within 30 minutes of that boom down almost two percent right there and then as the market tries to recover here comes another interview by fed president daley out of san francisco and she goes on to say this so a couple 50s uh in the summertime it sounds like you could go ahead and do another 50 in september on your way to two and a half for the end of the year i certainly am comfortable to do what it takes to get inflation trending down to the level we need to be i really think these high inflation numbers have been going on too long and consumers and businesses everyday americans are depending on us to get inflation back down and and bridling it and so the reason i'm not forecasting beyond the next couple of meetings is because i don't know what else the data are going to give us we've seen financial conditions tighten we've seen some early leading indicators that say that slope they're slowing in growth numbers but we aren't really there yet so we need to continue to see those data on a slowing economy bringing demand and supply back in balance and i need to see some real progress on inflation otherwise i would think we just move the rate until we find ourselves at least at neutral and then we look around and see what else needs to be done let's talk about uh beyond neutral here and whether or not you think the the fed has to go there there was obviously some talk in the last minutes about going beyond neutral where do you stand on that there are some people out there who say you know it's not crazy to think about a four or five percent funds rate because it ought to be positive to begin with a two or three percent inflation rate and then you may have to get restrictive how do you come down on that so i absolutely am open to pulling the reins back on the economy after we've removed the accommodation but it's too early in my judgment to proclaim that we're going to do one thing or another because we still have other things that are unfolding i mean i mentioned china already china literally just reopened that we needed to persist in its opening so that we get supply chains some relief we also need to see what happens with the war in ukraine and how much energy and food supplies really can come back in balance with the demand there and i need to see more progress on getting demand growth back in line with supply that we have so i'm looking for both supply to recover somewhat and demand to come back down a little bit if neither of those things cooperate then we need to go into restrictive territory because ultimately we have a goal of price stability and full employment and we're not at our price stability goal and what you end up with is close to a three percent turnaround there on a dime in less than almost an hour and so you can see the mark is trying to recover as i'm putting this out right now and don't forget to and what jamie diamond is basically talking about is understand what the fed is starting to roll off their balance sheet right their nine trillion dollar balance sheet and this starts usually officially on june 15th but they're gonna start selling around 47.5 billion worth of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities each month for three months and then after that it'll go up somewhere around 95 billion in september and roughly about 3 trillion over the next three years so this is literally is just like having extra rate hikes okay because it's going to dry up liquidity in the market and the other thing jamie dimon is talking about because remember he is the ceo of a financial institution is that analysts cuts of global earnings forecasts outweigh upgrades right you can see the right right there you know you can see used to back in the day boy in december january of 2021 look at all those upgrades and then you look at what's going on now right a lot of downgrades especially globally because everybody has these huge fears of everything slowing especially in china it's china you know trying to get the cold everybody else sneezes right same thing with america there's no guarantee this is going to happen but everybody's trying to be a lot more cautious now and so just real quick you know want to put this out there and let you know what happened i'll have a much more detailed video later on tonight uh with these kind of concerns what's happening a lot of data that's come out that i think made him actually come out and say this right here but you know manipulation at his best right let me go ahead and use my power to swing the markers up or down it must be nice and so anyway i hope you guys are and i'll see you guys later
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