저자: RayDalio/채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상의 본편은 음모론성 주장이 대부분이며, 대상 자산에 대한 명확한 1~3개월 가격 예측은 거의 없다. [자막 전반부 - 진행자 주장] 기술 발전으로 경제 구조가 바뀌고 제조업 이후 소매·콜센터·트럭 운전 등 직업이 자동화될 것이라는 주장. 중국의 디지털 위안화 확산 의도와 디지털 화폐 표준 장악 가능성 언급. 빌 게이츠의 팬데믹 재발 발언과 육류 대체품 투자 의혹 제기(근거 없는 음모론 성격). 비자 반독점 조사, 휘발유 수요, 나이키 실적 악화와 감원 소식을 인용하며 '사람들이 돈을 기업으로 되돌려준다'는 식의 해석. 진행자는 4차 산업혁명 관련 투자 유지를 권유하나 종목·방향·기간이 명시되지 않음. [자막 후반부 - Ray Dalio 인용] 정부 부채 확대와 중앙은행의 국채 매입(화폐 발행)이 장기 부채 사이클 말기 신호라는 견해. 10년물 금리 급등을 경고 신호로 해석하며, 채권 보유자 손실이 매도 압력으로 이어질 수 있다고 설명. 연준이 금리 인상을 용인할지, 채권을 매입해 금리를 누를지의 딜레마 제기. 주식 시장은 10~15% 조정은 감내 가능하나 그 이상이면 경제에 영향을 줄 것이라는 취지. [리스크·조건] 금리 상승이 금융자산 가격을 먼저 훼손하고 이후 주식으로 전이될 수 있음. 인플레이션 압력과 달러 가치 하락 가능성 언급. [자산별 방향] 미국채금리: 상승 압력 언급(중기·조건부). 달러: 장기적 약세 가능성(조건부). 그 외 개별 종목 예측 없음. [출연자 전망] 대체로 장기 부채 사이클 말기 경고 톤, 단기 방향은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
we're going to a different economy, and we're going to keep learning about it as we go. But clearly we're learning that things can be done from remote locations, and that technology can replace people even more than we thought. We're not going back to the same economy. We're recovering, but into a different one, and it'll be more leveraged to technology. I worry that this is going to make things even harder for many workers.
Silicon Valley workers and my friends in technology know what we did to manufacturing workers, we're now going to do to retail workers, call center workers, fast food workers, truck drivers, and then bookkeepers, accountants, insurance agents, lawyers, and on and on through the economy. So what happened to the manufacturing workers is a very clear sign.
China has big plans for this. They intend to seed their digital yuan into the global environment by giving it away to visitors at next winter's Olympics. When visitors arrive at the airport, they'll get digital wallets and receive digital yuan. They'll use it throughout their visits to Beijing, then take it back to their home countries. They see this as a huge advantage, because whoever controls the underlying protocols and standards of the future of money will control the future of money. This is already happening here and there, in experiments like the one in upstate New York, and in stimulus checks, which local and federal governments are sending directly to Americans. Is this a good test of your campaign platform? Do you think it'll catch on?
Of course it'll catch on, Shepard, because we're living it. Welcome to the Crypto Teacher stock channel. Guys, please like and subscribe. If you like what you're listening to, please tell your friends and family and share it all over social media. It is imperative that we get back to learning finance and understand how the world really works, because once we understand that, we see that everything is planned out. This video is just to make you think, but first I'm going to go over a few articles.
Bill Gates says another epidemic is coming, and we know he knows because he's a part of it. Gates also says he'll fly less and eat more synthetic meat, and we know he's made hundreds of millions of dollars off Beyond Meat, so that's why he's saying that. There's also a proposal to restore the bank capital requirements that were loosened during the pandemic, and none of these banks have a safety net, and that was done on purpose. What do we know? They cause a problem, they wait for the reaction, then they show up with the solution. That's why they changed the Volcker Rule. The casino is wide open. But I'm going to leave you with some Ray Dalio today.
Visa says the DOJ plans to probe its debit card practices. We know nothing's going to happen to Visa. Its shares fell 6%, but we know this is all part of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, ways to move us over to cryptocurrency, no fees. We also have gasoline demand, normal as far as March goes, and March levels, don't forget Exxon and Chevron. I've been over this time and time again. We know once this economy reopens, people are ready to get out, and they have a little cash, and that's why the New World Order opens at the right time. They put money into people's hands and then give it right back to the corporations. We know how it goes. Nike shares also fell on mixed earnings and announced layoffs, but we know Nike makes plenty of money. They shouldn't be laying people off; they should be hiring more. It's like all these big corporations. We know the masses are going to take this money and get right back to Nike.
Finally, let's go over the actual indicators. The dollar was down, the VIX was slightly down, and yields were slightly up. As you can see, the markers were mixed. So don't forget, make sure you're invested in the Fourth Industrial Revolution and you'll be fine. Like I said, I'm going to leave you with a Ray Dalio clip. Don't forget to check out the main channel, Crypto Teacher, Learn Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies: The New Economy. Also like, subscribe, and spread the channel everywhere. You all have a wonderful day.
What we've seen this time around is the need to distribute, to produce a lot of debt. Where did those checks come from? From the government. The government wrote the checks, but the government can't produce money. The central bank can. So the central bank had to print a lot of money to lend to the government. That's monetization. When you get to the late part of the cycle, where you're creating a lot more debt and then monetizing it, that's near the end of a long-term debt cycle, and it produces its own set of problems.
What tells us we're nearing the end of that cycle? In just recent days, including this week, we've seen the 10-year yield shoot up. It's still a modest number historically, but it shot up very quickly. Is it an early warning sign that we've pushed it a bit far? We've had a lot of stimulus, so yes. Let's understand what's behind that, and then you can see the warning signs, because it's a manifestation of something bigger. A lot of bonds have to be sold, and bonds don't give any good return. There's a guaranteed negative return on bonds relative to inflation. Inflation-indexed bonds yield less than minus one percent, so there's no real return. There's a pile of people who own bonds, and this isn't just Americans. These are international investors. They have to buy a lot more bonds, because when the government has to sell a lot more debt, there won't be enough demand for those bonds. When that happens, interest rates rise, and that's what you're seeing now. The central bank is put in a dilemma. This is all classic end-of-cycle behavior. Either interest rates will rise a lot, or they'll have to print money and buy those bonds to hold rates down. When they print money to buy bonds and hold rates down, that lowers real rates, accelerates the depreciation of the dollar, and raises inflation pressures. The frightening part is that if people are losing money holding bonds, and that's not just Americans but other foreigners too, they could sell. If they sell at the same time the government has to sell a lot of bonds, that could produce a real dilemma. That's classic late long-term debt cycle stuff.
So let's talk about Jay Powell's dilemma. You describe it as a dilemma. He appeared this week and basically took a hard look at the debt market, looked the Treasury market in the eye, and said he wasn't going to do anything to help. They didn't like that much, and so the 10-year kept rising. At what point is there enough pain, and what form does that pain take? Is it really financial conditions tightening? Does it have to get to two and a half, three, three and a half, or four percent?
Think of the economy as an individual whose pulse is dropping. When the pulse drops, the doctors come running in with a stimulant. Now the economy is rebounding and inflation pressures are rebounding too, so there's not the same pressure to administer stimulus. When it becomes a problem, the first thing that hurts is financial asset prices. Rising interest rates typically hurt bonds first, then pass through and hurt stocks, because interest rates still affect stocks. When that starts to affect stocks, the stock market might correct 10 or 15 percent, and the Federal Reserve can tolerate that. When it goes beyond that and starts to affect the economy, that's when you see the real trade-off. So that's what that looks like. Okay, so let's play a little Dickens here, and
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