저자: JamieDimon및채널진행자 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 제이미 다이먼은 향후 경제에 대해 명확한 방향을 예측하지 않으며, 지정학·재정적자·금리 상승 가능성에 대비하라고 말하고, 채널 진행자는 금리·달러 상승을 근거로 증시 조정과 특정 종목 강세를 주장한다. 다이먼의 발언: 그는 지정학 리스크(미중 관계, 우크라이나 전쟁, 에너지·식량·이주)를 가장 큰 폭풍 구름으로 꼽았으며, 재정지출 확대와 높은 재정적자, 양적긴축(QT)이 변동성을 키울 수 있다고 했다. 금리 관련: 다이먼은 10년물 금리가 7%까지 갈 가능성이 있다고 말했지만 이는 예측이 아니라 대비 시나리오라고 강조했다. 최악의 경우는 고금리와 경기침체가 겹치는 스태그플레이션이라고 언급했다. 경기 전망: 연착륙, 완만한 침체, 심각한 침체 등 여러 시나리오가 가능하다고 봤으며 특정 방향을 확정하지 않았다. 진행자의 주장: 금리 상승과 달러 강세가 시장 조정을 부를 것이라고 주장하며, 현재 AI 랠리가 있었다고 언급했다. 소비자는 인플레이션과 고금리로 타격을 받고 있다고 했다. 종목 언급: 에너지(엑슨, 셰브론)는 유지, 월마트는 자동화 수혜로 긍정적, 아마존은 디지털 전환으로 긍정적이라고 언급했다. 비트코인·암호화폐는 이더리움 선물 ETF 출시를 계기로 긍정적으로 언급했다. 기타: AI는 생산성을 높이지만 일자리를 대체한다고 했고, 포드 공장 파업으로 일부 해고가 있었다고 전했다. 진행자는 보편적 기본소득과 프로그래머블 머니에 대해 음모론적 주장을 펼쳤으나 근거가 부족하다.
다듬은 글
of them as storm clouds we don't know if they're going to hit when they're going to hit what they're going to do okay so I'm not predicting that but I'll tell you what I worry about so one is the fiscal money being spent is so big largest in peace time ever America and kind of around the world with already very high deficits and QT we've never had so I know some people think QT will be uneventful I'm not so sure I at a minute my expect volatile markets and then you've got and then all the long-term fiscal things are kind of inflationary you know oil prices certain commodity prices the green economy you know the restructuring of trade you name it I see it's at interflation not subtracted inflation so I don't think inflationary will be that you know keep on coming down it may not and therefore rates may go higher but the biggest storm cloud is geopolitical it's going to affect all Global relations in America and China trade alliances we don't know how it's going to start either so I just put those two things is I keep a close eye on and then how it affects the economy is different and when I've been talking about that is I I just tell people be prepared for higher rates and slower seven percent are we really going there and how is that I said five percent they said are we going there yeah it's possible you know so I when I talk to my board I say yeah it can it go to seven percent the answer is yes are there factors that would drive it you know higher than you know where it is today you know four and a half four six or four I'm talking about a ten year bond now yes uh is supply and demand could push out yes I'm just saying be prepared for it so and and and then the worst case is stagflation you know higher rates because you have a booming economy there's a lot of competition for Capital it's not the same thing as taxation what are what are the Ripple effects of the stress of that seven percent rates on business on your growth well I'm not worried about JP Morgan shaping world you know we are prepared we could handle seven percent we can handle two percent again eight percent yeah we can handle that too I mean that's I mean so that's risk management is not the same thing as guests in the future when risk management look at the range of potential outcomes and being able to say to yourself we can handle this we can have a list we don't really expect it and we can handle the in between you know if you bet your company on you know one outcome so I think all companies do that you know every company's got different exposures you know input prices output prices you know some interest rates don't matter some it's the price of mozzarella so what's your business your business is different so uh but I I think we don't know the effect of these things the economy so they may we may have a soft Landing we may have a mild recession may have a harder recession you know obviously there are potential bad outcomes the you know the worst one would be economically is taxation right where you have low growth High interest rates and obviously if that happens you're going to see you know a lot of people struggling where's China on the list of risk risk when I say geopolitical that's the big one is it's the thread from Ukraine oil and gas food migration all our relationships the most important one being China that is the most important for the future of the world uh and and obviously Ukraine is affecting it and in fact it's very hard to see really positive outcomes with China until the Ukraine war is resolved hopefully uh where the ukrainians could say they have a victory of some sort welcome to the key stock and quick no Channel don't forget to like And subscribe to the channel support is great content a hand in the cash out and by joining the patreon and we have Jamie Diamond talking about the geopolitical events and we know these big banks have survived the pumps and dumps because the banks are the biggest what I'll let you finish that but we know the consumers are being eaten up from inflation and high rates and these rates are going to be higher for longer and we have the funny news remember guys this is all a movie Sam bankman free considered paying Trump five billion dollars not to run for president God's word was he going to get this 5 billion from I forget he had his own print and press now I'm gonna try to bring you at least four videos per week on the stock Channel because now things are about to tighten up all you have to do is look at the indicators the yield rates are rising to numbers we haven't seen in about 20 years we have the Dollar Rising and we know those two things are going to bring down the market we had the AI pump right now guys you're looking at energy you know always talk about Exxon Chevron we know the Rockefellers are not going anywhere right now the consumer is hurting due to inflation and higher interest rates like I stated so we also know Walmart is going to benefit from it all and then plus Walmart is set up for the fourth Industrial Revolution we can clearly see they're slowly getting rid of their cashiers and bringing in all Automation and we know Amazon is doing the same even though we see this lawsuit guys we know it's two steps forward one step back Amazon is not going anywhere and they are definitely set up for the digital transformation but of course guys I'm going to be going over stocks on a daily basis like I stated I'm gonna try to bring you at least four videos or more per week on the stock Channel going forward now guys make sure you're paying attention to the actual indicators we had yield rates rise we had a dollar rise and of course that had the vix moving the vix hasn't moved much but I guarantee in his fourth quarter is going to be very volatile now we had crypto get a boost from ethereum Futures launch remember guys crypto is the future stocks are going to be tokenized and put on blockchain and we had Kramer talking about the bond market because he knows what's about to happen we've seen the Kramer movie before he's not going to tell you but he's definitely going to give us that signal now we know the fourth Industrial Revolution is going to rise in the Emerging Markets first and AI is going to make people more productive is that correct no it is not AI is going to replace people AI is going to be more productive on his own remember the machine doesn't need health care it doesn't need a break it's not going to call out sick and it's gonna work all day now we have the UAW strike which no one is paying attention to but guys like I keep saying it's going to hurt the global economy more layoffs it doesn't seem like a lot but remember you already have thousands already out of work and then plus receiving less income and we're rolling into the holidays and like Trump stated these electric vehicles are going to be built in China we know the subsidies that Elon Musk gets from China don't forget that and then we had the FED micro bar talking about interest rates and how they're going to take a little longer to seep into the market and guys we know that's the reason why the FED raised rates so fast because they know it takes time for the interest rates to catch up with the actual economy now we're seeing it now we're seeing all the holes in the economy remember when they first started raising rates the consumer had over 2 trillion was in savings now it has moved all the way down to 190 billion we have trillions of dollars in credit card debt auto loan delinquencies the highest since the 2008 crisis but the mainstream media is not going to push that message and things are clearly going to get worse we know they caused the problem wait for the reaction and run in with the solution and what's the solution guys Automation and plus Universal basic income where they're going to be able to air drop you that free money but little do the people know that money is programmable telling you what where and when and how to buy and you have three to six months to spend it or proof is gone and remember the crypto teacher told you now guys that's all I have for you make sure you go to the main Channel and check out the crypto teacher so therefore you can learn the new economy get your friends and family educated because you don't I'd want to be caught on the wrong side of history have a wonderful day the cuts down sector after sector and that's how you get days like today which at one point was so ugly but then rebounded the clothes downstairs finished off 74 points but the s p had 7.01 and then NASDAQ held up all day finishing very strong I want you to keep that in mind it's a big day in UTF history if you will so to the first point yes uh investors traditional investors now have access to ethereum which is really I would call it a Pure Play blockchain Play Because Bitcoin has got this sort of aspects of gold so it's interesting it's the first day uh true investors what the fund holds the ETF holds this Futures ethereum Futures not the spot so there are um I would say a couple of issues relating to that one is does the Futures curve track the price of ethereum and then there's some tax issues that aren't as good as the spot ethereum ETF but I think what's historic about today Morgan is that for the first time the SEC organized it so that at least four ETF issuers came to Market on the same day which has never happened before the streak you're in I guess the starting point for thinking about it might be that it's going to make all of us more productive and it's going to be a force multiplier we just don't know exactly by how much and when that's going to materialize for our portfolio companies we're working with all of them to understand the opportunities and the threats occasioned by AI 30 employees at Ford who will be laid off either starting on September 30th they were laid off or on October 7th or second which would be tomorrow these are employees who are at the Chicago stamping plan plant or at the Lima Ohio engine facility the reason why parts are not needed since the Chicago final assembly plant is on strike and that's the plant where they build the Explorer as well as the Lincoln Aviator so when you look at those two facilities doesn't sound like a huge amount of jobs 330 but this is now 930 altogether that Ford has had to lay off between these two facilities as well as the Wayne final assembly plant after the strike was called their two weeks ago and this is a case where Ford is saying we have to lay these employees off because the parts that they would normally make that would go into production in a particular facility they're not needed because that facility is on strike right now so another 330 jobs uh where the employees are laid off at four again it's how long the FED remains restrictive full effects of tightening he says are yet to come that's him weighing an important debate among vet officials and he's more in the we're not done with the lags yet he said the FED can proceed carefully at this point the economy though is showing more resilience than he expected he sees a higher probability now that the FED can avoid a large increase can avoid large increase to unemployment rate and that is without the degree of job losses you might usually see with the amount of policy tithing that they've had recently he says they're making progress bringing labor supply and demand back in to balancing the expected GDP to moderate below potential for next year with some softening in the labor market it's
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