STOCK MARKET CRASH OF 2008 COMING IN 2023-24! BLACKROCK LARRY FINK WANTS YOU BACK IN OFFICE!

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2008년식 증시 폭락이 2023~24년에 올 수 있다는 제목과 달리, 본문은 주로 연준 금리 인상 지속, 미국 생산성 둔화와 직장 복귀 주장, 개별 기업 뉴스(T-Mobile 자사주 매입, CVS 인수, 인텔 관련 논평)를 훑는다. 첫째, 진행자는 파월 연준 의장이 금리 인상을 계속한다고 말했다고 전하며 영국 중앙은행의 금리 인상 연기와 9월 21일 연준 금리 결정을 언급한다. 캐시 우드는 3~6개월 내 연준 피벗과 디플레이션을 말했다고 소개하지만 진행자는 피벗은 없을 것이라고 본다. 둘째, 기업 뉴스로 T-Mobile이 140억 달러 규모 자사주 매입을 발표했고 2023~2025년 최대 600억 달러 투자 가능성을 언급한다. 버라이즌과 AT&T는 배당주로서 약세라고 평가한다. 메르세데스-벤츠와 리비안의 유럽 상용 전기밴 협력, CVS의 Signify Health 약 80억 달러 인수도 소개된다. 셋째, 반도체와 관련해 진행자는 인텔을 선호하며 인플레이션 감축법(IRA) 수혜를 기대한다. 시장 지표로는 금리 소폭 상승, 달러 소폭 하락, VIX 하락을 언급한다. 씨티와 뱅크오브아메리카의 소수계 주택 구매 지원도 다룬다. 넷째, 래리 핑크는 미국 생산성 하락이 인플레이션 요인이라며 직원 사무실 복귀를 강조한다. 그는 금리가 3.5~3.75% 수준까지 오를 수 있고, 그 과정에서 경기침체 가능성이 있으나 생산성 회복 시 연준의 부담이 줄 수 있다고 본다. 또한 블랙록이 사우디와 아부다비 가스 파이프라인 등에 투자해 왔으며 가스가 향후 50년 에너지 전환에서 중심 역할을 한다고 주장한다. 전체적으로 거시 경로(연준 금리 인상, 생산성, 경기침체 위험)에 대한 해석과 개별 종목 코멘트가 섞여 있으며, 주요 예측은 금리 인상 지속과 경기침체 가능성 정도다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. welcome to keystock and crypto channel king for the kids what is a stop a stock means you own a share of a company welcome to the channel guys and we have a lot of entertainment going on right now but of course i'm gonna speak about it on my other channel but guys we had the fed speak yesterday jerome powell i did a video yesterday on my other channel please go check it out but jerome powell stated they're going to continue on raising rates now because of the death of queen elizabeth ii the bank of england has pushed back their rate hike to september 22nd and we know our fed is going to be raising rates on the 21st so that's definitely going to put a rumble in the market and of course i'm going to go over that more on the other channel but guys we have kathy wood says that the fade is going to pivot within three to six months and we're going to start seeing deflation and yes part of that is correct we're definitely going to start seeing hyper deflation but they're not going to pivot jerome powell stated yesterday they're going to keep raising until they get to that two percent now we had janet yellen yesterday said that the white house policies rescue the u.s economy but we also know these policies caused inflation but guys getting over into the actual stocks we have t-mobile announces a 14 billion dollar share buyback now t-mobile's management said that they could invest up to 60 billion from 2023 to 2025.

02. and guys we know these share buybacks are all about manipulating the stock we know share buybacks were illegal until reagan changed the law before the companies used to reinvest back into their companies and then also give the actual employees shares in the company and we know all that has changed but t-mobile is one of the few companies where you can clearly see their stock just keeps going up and we have verizon at t have taken a hit but we know those are dividend stocks where you're not going to get a big bounce but they normally stay steady but they've been moving down and then of course elon musk has teamed up with t-mobile now we have mercedes-benz and rivian which should say amazon team up to build electric commercial vans in europe and we know but it review bounced back almost double now we know these electric vehicles are new so there's still a lot of consolidation that needs to happen inside this market but if you have amazon behind you you're going to be fine now you have cvs to buy home health giant signify health for about 8 billion dollars and we see technology moving in on health care over these next two years health care is going to be transformed but there's going to be trillions of dollars to be made and walgreens and cvs are definitely going to benefit and speaking of the technology transformation of course you have to have chips and the chip stocks you know i love intel and nvidia but especially intel intel is taking a hit like i went over on so many occasions on the stock channel before intel is one of the few companies that have real numbers not going 20 30 100 times earning and now intel is going to benefit from biden's inflation reduction act of course which was the buildback better bill now getting over to the actual indicators we have yield rates which are slightly up we have the dollar which is slightly down which is helping stocks and we have the vix down now my last video i left a bank of america video on how they're helping minorities buy a home now we have city doing the same thing they're helping people buy homes at the time where interest rates are at his highest and property values are going to be on his way down but guys i'm going to leave you with larry fink larry fink wants you back in the office because he's saying production is going down what a difference a year makes but guys that's all i have for you and you have a wonderful day i i think we're gonna we're gonna see changes in the workforce and let me just emphasize that i i if you look at the statistics that came out of the united states for u.s productivity in the uh second quarter productivity was down four percent and the first quarter fell over seven percent oh god that's very inflationary and i i believe productivity is following the united states up quite a bit because we're talking 75 basis points definitely and many and maybe two or three more of those yeah i mean we could see we we could see a three and a half three and three quarter short term rate which i don't find that troublesome right what i find more troublesome is the fall in productivity the product when you have falling of productivity that's very inflationary i think you know we have to get our employees back in the office uh i was gonna ask you about that what do you what are you doing about that yeah well i i when you see these these the claps in productivity you have to ask what is going on and i think in the first year of covid when we i think it was you know remote working worked fantastically but we're now on a two and a half year anniversary is going on and now we're starting to see the failure of what that is being done and we're seeing these this collapse in productivity i think you know if we magically had more and more people coming back to office i think we would see rising productivity again that will offset some of the inflation are you at blackrock doing what david solomon and james gorman's doing and saying we want you back your rear ends back at your desk so i'm not sure they have not formally announced what they're doing so i can't speak about what they're doing we we are going to ask our employees to be much more mindful about their responsibilities in the office we're going to be taking harder line as to how do we bring our employees back and we believe this is going to be a key element in bringing down inflation rising in uh productivity so i think all of this is we're facing the consequences of covet that's that has created this inflationary pressure alongside governmental policies alongside obviously a war in ukraine all of these are hitting at the same time and you know and it just makes it harder for our essential banks and the other central banks to to really you know to move the dial and does it and if they have to be more aggressive then could it lead to a recession yes however if we can successfully migrate more and more people back in the office if we could stabilize productivity in america and having elevated productivity that could be a great offset and that could make the um the federal reserve's job to be a little less difficult and it then may lead to a less aggressive fed so i look at these as all triangulated and we're going to have you know we have to see how this all plays in this country we'd be remiss if we didn't ask you where are you investing right now you have also been very much at the forefront of esg but what do you see as far as better investments in let's just say the near term well we have been the largest one of the largest investors in gas pipelines in the world i mean we have been we provided over 14 billion dollars in equity in saudi arabia to build their gas pipeline which is now going to be used ultimately to export to offset the russian gas we financed the uh the gas pipeline in abu dhabi we were the builder and constructed of the pipeline from texas to mexico city for a gas pipeline this is something that we've always believed in we have always believed in any esg or any energy transition gas is going to play a central role for the next 50 years