저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라가 FSD(완전자율주행) 구매 할인(약 5,000달러)을 도입해 채택률을 높여야 한다고 주장. 현재 FSD 가격 11.2만 달러 대비 할인 시 채택률 상승, 2024 EPS 약 22.8% 증가 가능 추정. 단기적으로는 1월 1일 세제 혜택 때문에 4분기 실적이 나쁠 것이라 전망하지만, 장기적으로는 FSD 채택 확대가 테슬라에 긍정적이라고 봄. 레퍼럴 크레딧 등 마케팅도 제안.
다듬은 글
this is Mission critical Tesla has 37 days left to do this and it is exceptionally critical that it happens it is important for the long-term vision of Tesla's sustainable future the success of full self-driving and autonomy the success of Robotics folks we've got to do this now here's my suggestion and I encourage everyone in the Tesla Community to consider what I'm suggesting consider it first don't just share consider it first and then if you like the idea share it which I have a feeling you're going to like it and here's exactly why Tesla needs to do it I'll start with that this quarter is going to suck remember January 1st is a massive Cliff for Tesla but it's the reverse of normal years so you literally have opposite seasonality which is really bad in the short term it suggests that people are better off buying a Tesla January 1st than they are buying in this quarter because if they buy in this quarter they have to wait wait until their tax return to get the $7,500 tax credit if they buy Jan one they could get it directly via the new IRS rules which allow that tax deduction or credit rather to be received by the dealer and given to the customer at the time of purchase some people are like oh well you know doesn't that hurt Tesla because then it takes Tesla a year and a half to get that credit no it takes them 90 days to get that credit because corporations file quarterly simple anyway here is the idea Tesla should immediately introduce an FSD at purchase discount to maximize its take rate Tesla should offer $5,000 at a new car purchase compared to the $112,000 it currently costs after or at current purchase there should be a brief 30-day period for existing owners this means the entire fleet of frankly millions of vehicles that do not have FSD have a massive incentive today to flick the switch and adopt full self-driving immediately for a cost of just $55,000 but there is another option as well we'll get to that first there has to be a massive reward for day one adopters like when you say you have the biggest sale ever it should be the biggest sale ever uh by the way don't buy anything at meetkevin.com on Thursday yet wait until we actually have a really big reward going up Friday for Black Friday so stay tuned this is like the only time I'm going to tell you don't buy uh and if you bought in the last few days don't worry we've got the same special surprise for you you'll get taken care of we we love all of you okay always trying to provide more value but anyway there has to be a big wedge between day one adopters that big sale and reality because that's actually giving people real value same thing we like to do with the courses tomorrow Black Friday but anyway we estimate that this would likely 5x the current take rate the current estimated is believed to estimated take rate is about 7% Tesla doesn't disclose it anymore the last time we got 7% was actually Q3 of 2022 so frankly this take rate number could be like 4% right now which would like 9x the take rate and here's the thing if you actually enable this consider the math on just new vehicle sales on 2 million Vehicles this is like a lever folks it's a lever that Elon can pull he just needs to pull it okay take the ego off the shelf and pull the lever I don't actually think Elon has a bad ego I I actually think he's relatively reasonable and willing to fall on the sword on many things uh and uh I actually don't know that this is taking the ego off the shelf I actually think this is extremely logical and I think if he hears it hopefully he will he'll agree because I I think he's a very very intelligent and smart person uh and uh and and he'll see the light of this consider this this for a moment on 2 million Vehicles sold per year at 28% more take rate that's the marginal difference between you know 7% and 35 but it could be even greater uh that's immediately $2.8 billion of additional profit per year which works out to about 90 cents of additional EPS in 2024 increasing Tesla's earnings per share by 22.8% that is massive I mean just consider that for a moment if right now Tesla is $230 and you have a an EPS Target of let's say $3.95 that means Tesla's trading for 58.3 times you increase EPS 22.8% to 484 that PE ratio drops to 47 and the PEG ratio gets even more desirable the PEG ratio would be down at 1.35 yeah now some people are like oh this is just a short-term benefit wrong and we're not even done yet with the suggestion this would not be a short-term benefit this would be a massive long-term Catalyst because you have to understand this every Tesla that sells without FSD is a Tesla that may end up in the scrapyard never having had FSD it's crazy imagine okay I maybe this is a little crude but okay most of us are dudes around here and the women who are around here you know what they'll probably appreciate the analogy imagine when you turn 18 you have to decide to have sex with women or to never have sex with women and then once you make that decision you can never go back that's kind of the analogy we're making or the analogy is kind of applicable I believe to FSD because it's either you buy now at five grand or you're probably never going to do it because 12 Grand is excessive now I know a lot of people are like okay well so first of all the adoption rate will probably Skyrocket uh maybe even substantially higher than the estimate estimate that we have of 35% but there is a potential that when that decision is made at purchase that it's almost like there will be some vehicles that never ever ever have FSD and that's true because think about it somebody buys it has it for 7 years they never get FSD they sell it to somebody else and then that person never buys FSD 7 years later maybe the car ends up as scrap it went its entire life without you get it you get it right so point is that's lost potential Revenue if you could minimize that up front then that's exactly what you should do especially since it's nearly 100% profit it costs Tesla essentially zero on the margin to do this so this not just helps 2024 it not just helps Q4 which Q4 is is going to be a problem especially you know since usually we have a Q4 Rush right now we're having like the Q4 anti- rush if anything you'd have more of a q1 push than a Q4 push because of this tax benefit change it's a big problem and and keep in mind this is not only a long-term solution but it also benefits Tesla you have more capital for Tesla to advance Optimist and invest in FSD technology more you have more Capital available to scale factories faster you get more users actually using FSD so more data you benefit shareholders you benefit the long run mission of Tesla I also believe that the market has priced in the value of FSD at $33,000 that's what I believe that's $3,000 for some reason this is apparently turning this into Euros as well so € 2,750 that's what I think the value of FSD is based on analyzing the UK's car market okay so if you consider the 's car market and the value of FSD is $3,000 then somebody who pays 12 for it is basically signing up for an immediate depreciation of $9,000 whereas if somebody pays five they're only facing resale depreciation or loss of about 2,000 now that's actually pretty reasonable now you substantially reduce the purchaser risk of opting into FSD thus reducing the desire of people to just turn on and off Tesla FSD for $200 a month also consider this at $200 per month your offsetting break even is at at $5,000 $5,000 divided by 200 is just 25 months at $112,000 the break even is 60 months so do you want to break even in 2 years buying it versus having a subscription or in 60 months in 5 years well come on by 5 years people have already upgraded and moved on instead now you motivate people to actually buy it because you're minimizing their resale risk what you could also potentially do is offer a $300 subscription option where you include $100 of principal payments towards FSD so then you have it you you make the $300 subscription payment for 5 years and then you own FSD when you do the $300 option if you do the $200 option you never actually end up owning it that actually reduces your monthly cost if the resale value is $3,000 to just about $150 per month it's actually a better deal to pay Tesla more per month in this example so I highly encourage people to consider tagging Elon Musk or friends at Tesla uh you know I love Tesla I love the community I really have massively high hopes for Tesla I'm literally am putting my money where my mouth is you know some people are like oh you know Kevin you know one day you're like oh this is a big Catalyst for Tesla which is true all the other electric vehicle manufacturers sucking and scaling back their production is a huge Catalyst for Tesla and then I see comments like oh in the next day you're like uh this is short-term bearish both of those can be true this isn't flip-flopping we have a short-term massively bearish Catalyst we are in Q4 which will go down down as the highest interest rates ever that Tesla sold cars in ever in the life of Tesla's existence Q4 2023 will go down as the highest interest rates ever combined with a tax benefit to wait until Jan 1 Q4 is going to suck unless we pull a lever here now I realize some people be think shortterm think again every car that doesn't have FSD day one is a car that potentially never has sex I mean never has FSD ever that long-term hurts Tesla so what about those who paid $112,000 in my opinion first of all you're not guaranteed any kind of benefit to or like price guarantee you are with me Kevin if you buy the courses but again don't do that today uh so instead with FSD what you could offer is some kind of reasonable referral credits there's no guarantee with FSD that prices won't go down but hey if you give people like $20,000 in referral credits they could buy some Tesla tequila and they can drink over it you know they could they could really you know think about life with the Tesla hoodie or whatever the Tesla hoodie is actually really nice it's really good and it reminds people it's like literally built-in advertising it literally reminds people oh yeah I could use my referral link and refer people to Tesla so you're literally creating advertising not just with the news of the FSD effort but also the referral credit part so in my opinion this could be the best ad that Tesla makes this holiday season I know Tesla will hear us if we work as a community to share the message so you know like share repost retweet whatever screenshot and tag Elon whatever it takes make Q4 the best quarter ever # i'mot leaving I also have a screenshot version of this so like if you want to take a screenshot of this as one post uh and that would make it easier to share it's right here just like screenshot now and then crop it and that's an option for you stay tuned for the Black Friday sale which I'm excited for uh let me look at some of the other replies that we have here uh let's see here so waiting until robot toxy I don't think we're going to see robotx until 2030 so I think that's a mistake this literally benefits FSD forever so anybody telling you this is just like a short-term thing is is nonsense uh and then the idea of Tesla being compute constrained is quite frankly offset by them having more Capital if they have more Capital you could pay a premium over the other people trying to get chips okay so screenshot and share this pull the lever uh some people here a lot of people here saying FSD isn't good enough to justify $112,000 a lot of comments about this it's not even worth $10,000 people say so people are starting to have a conversation about this bye I
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