저자: FarahAlari · 외국인
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Ken Griffin은 트럼프의 관세 정책에 대해 매우 우려한다고 밝혔다. 시티그룹 CEO와 모건스탠리 CEO도 인플레이션 및 경제 환경 변화에 우려를 표했다. 미국 법무부는 구글에 크롬 브라우저 매각을 요구했다. 유럽 증시는 미국 대비 큰 할인율과 자금 유출이 이어지고 있으며, 유로화는 트럼프 정책 영향으로 달러 대비 패리티(1:1)를 향해 약세 전망이 나온다.
다듬은 글
[ this is the Bloomberg Daybreak your podcast available every morning on Apple Spotify or wherever you listen it's Tuesday the 19th of November in London I'm Caroline hepker and I'm Steven Carol coming up today hedge fund Titan Ken Griffin says he's very anxious about Donald Trump's potential tariff policies European markets have been losing against the US for decades but investors fear things could get even more brutal under the next president plus searching for a solution Bloomberg learns that us competition officials want Google to sell its Chrome browser to break up its Monopoly let's start with a Roundup of our top stories hedge fund Titan Ken Griffin says he's quote very anxious about Donald Trump's potential tariff policies speaking to the UK's Oxford Union The Citadel founder and Republican donor said tariffs are a quote long slippery slope that can be profitable in the short run but damaging to us companies ability to compete globally in the long run Financial Chiefs are increasingly turning their attention to how the incoming administration's policies will impact the economy here's what city group CEO Jane Fraser told the hkma Global Financial leader Summit overnight the agenda is largely progrowth some questions around whether it will also be inflationary um and it's one where I think we know what is coming when we think about it probably 4S if you'll forgive me tariffs taxes the tapering of Regulation and tightening of inflation that was City Group CEO Jane Fraser speaking in Hong Kong with a comments on tar some two of the biggest names and finance came as the CEO of Morgan Stanley also expressed concerns about the changing economic environment for business here's what Ted pck told that in Hong Kong there are ongoing inflationary themes that bear consideration uh some element of De globalization uh ongoing climate transition uh the uh muscularity of the nation state or Regional alliances I.E defense uh War those are all inflationary Morgan steinle's Ted pick on citadels Ken Griffin both expressed reservations about the economic impact of president-elect Trump's immigration policy it comes As Trump confirmed his plan to use the US military for a mass deportation program in a post on his truth social network well the business secretary says the UK shouldn't jeopardize its relationship with the EU for a trade deal with Donald Trump Jonathan Reynolds told a committee in the House of Lords that Britain would not seek to choose between its key export markets I mean the US is a major and important trading partner for the UK 300 billion pounds of bilateral trade but you know compared to the EU with over 8800 billion pound of bilateral trade clearly if there are things that we are offered or asked to do that would result in an adverse relationship on the European side we'd have to weigh the consequences of that the comments from the business secretary come as the labor government looks for ways to boost trade and growth prime minister K dama told reporters at the G20 that he would restart talks on a UK India Free Trade Agreement next year negotiations on deal stalled in May after two years despite the strong personal relationship between the former prime minister Rishi sunak and India's Narendra Modi European Central Bank President says the European Union should be pulling its resources speaking at an event in Paris Christine lagard said boosting productivity growth in areas like defense and climate should be a priority her call for greater integration Echoes warning some other policy makers who say Donald Trump's return to the White House could accelerate a new era of protectionism Russia's invasion of Ukraine has now entered its thousandth day with tens of thousands of people killed on both sides the US President Joe Biden has now authorized Ukraine's use of longrange missiles to strike targets inside Russia but at the G20 the UK prime minister K Dharma refused to be drawn on the specifics of Britain's policy I'm not going to get into operational details because Putin is the only winner in that uh situation but I've been really clear for a long time now we need to double down we need to make sure Ukraine has what is necessary for as long as necessary because we cannot allow Putin to win this war starmer's comments have been echoed by French officials attending the G20 Summit they have also refused to say whether keev would be allowed to use their missiles against Targets in Russia meanwhile German Chancellor Olaf Schulz has maintained his decision not to give Ukraine access to their longrange missiles saying that he needs to act prudently Bloomberg has learned that top competition law officials at the US justice department have asked a federal judge to force Google to sell off its Chrome browser more now from Doug krar we're told the doj will ask federal judge Amit meta to also require measures related to artificial intelligence and Google's Android smartphone operating system meta is the same judge who ruled back in August that Google illegally monopolized the search market now OJ officials along with states that have joined the case also plan to recommend meta impose data licensing requirements and if meta accepts these proposals they have the potential to reshape the online search market and the developing AI industry by the way this case was filed under the first Trump Administration and continued under President Biden in New York I'm Doug kriser Bloomberg Radio a Hong Kong court has sentenced 45 pro-democracy activists to up to 10 years in jail the former democracy Advocate Benny Tai was handed down the longest sentence under China's security law for organizing unofficial primary polls in 2020 for the legislative Council former youth activist Joshua Wong got four years and8 months the US has called the case politically motivated the mass arrests of democracy advocates in 2021 effectively silence the city's entire political opposition and is likely to further deter descent in Hong Kong the trial of former media Mogul Jimmy lie is due to resume today now in a moment we're going to be talking a bit more about the G20 Gathering and also one of our deep Dives about European stocks uh why they've been in Retreat the outflows the pressure on the Euro as a result really and turbocharged by Donald Trump's uh U arrival in a few weeks in the white house but there was a picture out of the G20 that I want to pause on for a moment you know that adage picture speaking a thousand words and all the G20 family photo right in front of Rio's Sugar Loaf Mountain was uh quite um fascinating there was Xi Jinping China shei right at the front in the middle alongside India's Modi Sergey lavro was was sort of at the back standing in for President Vladimir Putin but there was no President Joe Biden it was like geopolitical Spot the Difference it's like who's missing from this photo that we should be able to recognize so uh no Joe Biden a couple of other notable absences as well though at least Georgia Maloney wasn't there h no uh Justin Trudeau from Canada either so it was apparently an organizational mixup yes but it doesn't bode particularly well at a time when world leaders are trying to present themselves as being united when there are so many challenges facing the world that some of the key Figures were absent um the US officials saying that they the the photo started early the symbolism is all there isn't it that Biden sort of wasn't particularly visible maybe at the Gathering and mind you he's is not the only one who's perhaps coming to um you know the end maybe of their political tenure I mean you've got Germany's Ola Schultz and also France's Emanuel maon kind of seen also as maybe L lame duck in their administrations well let's focus from the symbolism to the substance of what the leaders were discussing at the G20 uh in Rio of course uh many of them looking to the potential impact of what Donald Trump in the White House might mean for trade and diplomatic relations let's bring in our amaa news director Rosa mat uh who joins us in studio for more the issue of trade hanging over this Gathering Ros because everyone is thinking about what's going to change come January how international relations through the medium of trade could be upended a particular concern for European leaders well you were just talking about symbolism and substance and in fact both of those things tend to come together in a G20 communicate which a lot of people say communicate is a communicate but it you always look for certain words in the communicate in certain language and particularly uh in the first Donald Trump Administration the language around trade became extremely fraught in his communic in fact he famously ripped up a communic at the G7 Summit I think it was in Canada uh after he had signed it and so you can see that that's hanging over this meeting you've got European leaders um macron only a couple of days ago warning of the risk of of Europe being pulled into a trade War not just with the us but also with China so multiple fronts happening and that's because Donald Trump is is talking about tariffs of you know 10 to 20% even on countries that he would consider to be his allies and his friends uh he sees every country really when it comes to business as being a competitor so Europe is looking down the barrel of of tariffs and we know of course again in the first Trump Administration and there was a lot of tension over steel and iron in particular um we can imagine that coming back but also there's a lot of other sectors that could become problematic and so you're seeing a lot of language at the G20 amongst leaders perhaps not in the communic but about the need to preserve that kind of Global rules-based Order which is not just about security it's also about trade yeah absolutely Bloomberg intelligence Economist Anna Wong has done some extremely interesting analysis in terms of uh on aggregate how much she thinks it's going to increase inre tariffs the base case being that uh weighted tariffs will increase by 5 percentage points so from about 3% currently to the expectation of 8% at the end of 2026 so that's the kind of Bloomberg analysis of the situation the text as you mentioned is also so important on the war in Ukraine and the crisis in the Middle East does seem to be that the language is papering over some really deep divides and differences and we can see some of the leaders are even acknowledging that before the communic is sort of officially done although it's normally tried they try and get it done before the meeting begins including ol Schultz uh the German leader who was there saying hang on I think the language here is not strong enough in support of Ukraine and also in recognizing that Hamas did in fact attack Israel on October 7 last year and so you can see the language is trying to be very generic in both places in Ukraine it's sort of talking most about things like food security and the need for food security in the region not the fact that this war has been going on for more than 2 years and we're probably getting to the point where Ukraine's going to be forced in some fashion to negotiate and you again the statements of needing to keep supporting Ukraine seem to be there but in The Ether in the conversations behind the scenes at the meeting is the reality of well we can't keep sending military and financial aid there you know into perpetuity and so there's going to have to be talks at some point okay well plenty more to watch from the G20 for now Rosa Mason our EMA news director thank you you now in the days since the US election European stocks have retreated outflows have picked up and the Euro has kidded towards parity with the US dollar now the trend is being turbocharged by Trump's proposed policy mix of tariffs deregulation and loose fiscal policy and tax cuts in America joining us now to discuss is Bloomberg's Farah alari who leads our team covering European equities farret thank you for being with us what's the backdrop for stock and what's being priced into European equities markets right now good morning well you have really investors ascribing such a steep discount to European equities versus the US that's a 40% uh record low for Europe versus the US and um the underperformance of the stock 600 versus the S&P 500 is one of the W the widest on record this year so investors clearly aren't favoring Europe and um you have a lot of outflows coming through and now recommending to buy Europe is a contrarian call because the US is just providing a lot more growth a lot more diversification you have the AI plays and Europe really doesn't have something similar to that and all the passive inflows are generally geared towards the us if you look at the composition of the US market you have about eight companies that are valued at more than 1 trillion in Europe not even a single company is valued at over $500 billion the market in the US is 10 is about four times bigger than all the markets in Europe combined so again it's just such a massive Market that it makes Europe with its lackluster growth with um the headwinds that are potentially going to come through from Trump's proposed tariffs it makes it um not a very attractive uh destination for stock investors looking for lucrative returns as we've seen um from the US it's now known as a diversifier because some Equity investors may not put all their eggs in one b it but investors are not questioning is it good to just be known as the diversifier in a portfolio what about the outlook for the Euro as well you know some straters even even saying that parity could be the only way for euro dollar absolutely and that call for parity is only increasing it's not decreasing uh the Euro has been under significant pressure trading uh at the weakest level level in over a year and more and more investors are or and strategists are are expecting it to slide to parody with the dollar uh JP Morgan Goldman Sachs City Group say that the euro is one of um the biggest is set to be one of the biggest losers from a trump presidency going again back to that tariff agenda that the president-elect has set on the table and especially given Europe is uh quite relying on manufacturing and it has several Industries such as Autos making up a really big part of its economy parody is uh definitely um something that more and more people are discussing these days this is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe your morning brief on the stories making news from London to Wall Street and Beyond look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apple Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts you can also listen live each morning on London daab radio the Bloomberg business app and bloomberg.com our Flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30 I'm Caroline heer and I'm Steven Carol join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak europeo
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