저자: BradKaellner · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 빌 애크먼의 2020년 3월 신용부도스왑(CDS) 단기 숏 베팅 성공 사례를 소개하며, 특정 자산의 향후 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 제시하지 않는다. 사례 개요: 2020년 2월~3월 빌 애크먼이 팬데믹 우려로 회사채 CDS를 활용해 시장 하락에 베팅했고, 약 2700만 달러를 26억 달러로 불렸다고 설명한다. 거래 구조: 주식 전량 매도 대신 회사채 부도 위험에 대한 보험(CDS)을 매입했으며, 월 약 2700만 달러의 프리미엄을 5년간 내는 구조였으나 한 달 만에 청산해 프리미엄 한 번만 지불했다고 한다. 성과 비교: 마이클 베리의 주택시장 숏(약 2년 보유, 수익 약 8억 달러)과 비교해 애크먼의 수익이 3배 이상이라고 언급한다. 청산 시점: 2020년 3월 24일 CDS 보험료가 정점일 때 포지션을 정리했다고 설명한다. 분석 특징: 애크먼이 깊은 리서치보다는 팬데믹의 복리적 확산을 빠르게 읽은 점이 핵심이었다고 평가한다. 리스크 관점: 하락 베팅의 손실을 제한(capping downside)하는 창의적 방식에 대한 관심을 드러내지만, 구체적 전략 권유는 없다. 현재 시장 언급: 주식시장은 대부분 반등한 상태이며, 향후 경기 상황에 따라 유사한 하락 베팅 방법을 고민해볼 만하다는 일반적 언급만 있다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey what's up guys Brad here so it just came to my attention that in February and March Bill Ackman shorted the market and he was able to turn twenty seven million dollars into 2.6 billion dollars it's almost a hundred ex returned from this short play so I just wanted to kind of talk about what he did there cuz this is this is amazing for for reference Michael burry in the movie the big short shorting the housing market you know it took him two years from when he entered that short position and his eventual profit was about eight hundred million dollars so you know talking about Bill Ackman a two point six billion dollar profit effectively you know that's what is that that's more than three times as much as Michael burry in the movie the big short I don't know maybe they'll make a movie about this this Bill Ackman short but let's get into what actually happened so in February of 2020 Bill Ackman's heard he was feeling very concerned about the potential for a global pandemic and its impact on US and global markets so you know initially he was like oh man maybe maybe I just need to liquidate everything go to cash so that I can be and I'm ready to snap things up at the bottom when when the economy starts to turn around but then he thought well how can i play this so that i don't have to sell everything how can i protect the downside without liquidating all the assets now he sent a letter to his investors in march and it said part of it was during the past ten days we have taken steps to protect the portfolio from downward market volatility okay so what he ended up doing is he essentially bought insurance against corporate bonds okay not bonds that he owned just against corporate bonds right so how that worked is he was betting that the default rate of corporate bonds was going to go up okay and it did go up it went up I think from what was it one one-and-a-half percent up to five percent in the month of March okay and so essentially what he was doing he had premiums credit default swap premiums that he was that he was signed up for to be paying twenty seven million dollars per month for five years okay now he was able to cash out his position in less than a month so he only paid one premium of twenty seven million dollars now if you know if the bond market hadn't you know adjusted like that hadn't shot up and he had to pay that twenty seven million for five years that's one point I believe it's what one point six billion yeah one point six billion that he was on the hook for you know if if this event hadn't happened in corporate bonds so but you know he saw this pandemic as ominous and and that it was gonna happen in a very accelerated way he understands the power of compounding and obviously with with the virus you know it has a compounding effect where it it was doubling every you know handful of days and so he could see what was on the horizon so I thought okay my downside is very limited here and the payoff could be quite quite fast and it was about thirty days he turned twenty seven million into two point six billion that's that's just insane so he used basically the same kind of vehicle that Michael burry used back in 2005 to 2007 credit default swaps so you know I just think it's a fascinating story and you know the it's not like he did a ton of research into this which is really interesting Michael burry you know he really dug in to these these loans these real estate loans and you know because of Ackman's experience he was able to spot this fairly quickly this this way to bet on you know the the market downturn that that the corporate bond defaults would go up if you know this thing took a turn for the worse and it's crazy he basically got out of his position on the 24th of March which was the peak in the insurance rates for these credit default swaps on corporate bonds so it's just a really amazing story yeah so that's all I got guys let me know that am i late to the party here did you guys know about this bill ackman story and you know it makes me curious as well you know how someone might play this similarly moving forward obviously you know market has pretty much rebounded at least the equities market so you know it just got me thinking all right how would how would someone play it at this point where you know maybe you still see a massive market decline as you know the the state of the economy starts to emerge with what's happening in the equities markets if that's even going to happen but it just got me curious about creative ways to kind of play a short bet where you're really capping your downside so I just wanted to share this story guys let me know what you think of it and if you're seeing any other big kind of investors like Bill Ackman taking positions like this betting on a potential downturn in in the equities or bond markets that's all I got guys smash that thumbs up if you liked this video hit that subscribe button I'm slowly climbing up to 1000 subscribers and I would love your support alright guys I'll see you in the next video take care
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