저자: BradKaellner · 외국인
요약 보기
잭인더박스 주식은 DCF 기준 주당 약 83달러로 평가돼 현재가 65달러 대비 약 21% 저평가라는 결론이다. 마이클 버리가 2020년 1분기에 잭인더박스 30만 주를 매수해 최대 보유 종목이 됐다는 13F 공시를 근거로 분석을 시작한다. 잉여현금흐름 3억 1천만 달러, 장기 성장률 2%, 할인율 10%, 10년 후 15배 멀티플 등 가정으로 DCF를 수행했으며, 부채 23억 달러와 현금 1억 3천만 달러를 반영했다. 주가는 2월 21일 고점 89달러에서 3월 18일 약 18달러로 한 달 만에 약 79% 폭락했고, 버리가 저점 근처에서 매수했다면 안전마진이 매우 크다고 설명한다. 다만 그가 실제 매수 가격은 알 수 없다. 부채가 많지만 현금흐름이 유지된다면 매력적이며, 약 41달러 수준이면 관심이 크게 생길 것이라고 언급한다. 또한 가치투자 커뮤니티(Value Investors Club)의 과거 분석글을 참고할 것을 추천하고, 이 자료가 1년 반 전 것이라 업데이트가 필요하다고 덧붙인다. 이 외에 버리의 페이스북·보잉 매수, AMD·알리바바 영상 요청 등을 언급한다.
다듬은 글
hey what's up guys Brad here so today we're gonna talk about jack-in-the-box stock okay it was disclosed that Michael burry in the force first quarter of 2020 but 300,000 shares of jack-in-the-box it is now the biggest position in his equity portfolio as you can see here on date aroma he's got you know almost you know ten and a half million dollars in jack-in-the-box stock you can see he added to a few of his positions he bought Facebook for the first time at least he didn't own it prior to the first quarter of 2020 and he bought Boeing which I covered in a recent video but today I really want to dive into jack-in-the-box stock to see you know if we can understand why this was an appealing investment to Michael burry of the Big Short Fame okay so let's dive into jack-in-the-box so I took a stab at doing a discounted cash flow valuation of jack-in-the-box and so I assumed you know pretty modest growth rates in free cash flow for for ten years two percent we're using a ten percent discount rate that's kind of the conservative discount rate I like to use we have a fifteen multiple of free cash flow so after ten years we're assuming we want to sell the business based on a multiple of the free cash flow that we generate in year ten which is right here so this number here the terminal value is simply fifteen times this terminal year free cash flow on macro trends is where I found this free cash flow for the latest year 301 million dollars excess cash of cash and cash equivalents I found at Morningstar that was a hundred and thirty million dollars as of the most recent quarter so this is trailing twelve months cash and cash equivalents the debt is two point three three billion dollars so that goes there shares outstanding I took the market cap divided by the current share price to get twenty two point six four million shares outstanding okay now based on all that we have the equity available to shareholders which is simply the present value of future cash flows which is a sum of cash flows for each year one through ten and the terminal value they're discounted to present value so that's the sum of all these gives us the present value of future cash flows add the cash subtract the debt and we have what's available to equity holders take the equity divided by shares outstanding and we get eighty three dollars per share is what I valued jack-in-the-box at now the current price is sixty five so you know it's not a crazy deal it's it's a twenty-one percent discount for jack-in-the-box as of today based on my estimates here but in from February 21st of twenty twenty on February 21st the the stock was at 89 dollars a share eighty nine thirty four was the peak okay now only what three four weeks later on March 18th the stock had dropped from eighty nine down to about eighteen okay the stock dropped seventy nine percent in less than a month so you know we don't know at what price Michael burry was able to snatch up his 600,000 300,000 shares of jack-in-the-box at but you know when I you know look at these things I assume they they got in at the low that when I look at 13 FS when I look at activity from these top investors what they bought in the last quarter I just assumed that they got in at the low price in the last quarter okay you know if I'm gonna clone the investor I assume that to try to figure out okay is this a good buy now versus you know when they may have bought in so I mean you can see if if Michael burry got in at the low of 1859 which I'm sure he didn't get all of his shares at that price but let's assume he was able to get in then he's in a 78 percent discount from fair value as I calculated with my simple discounted cash flow valuation that's crazy a 78 percent margin of safety so you know I can I mean it jack-in-the-box looks like it has a little hair on it there's a lot of debt but you know if they're able to continue that 300 million in in free cash flow and grow that very modestly you know you can see here it's it's a compelling it's certainly a compelling buy it at eighteen fifty it's probably a compelling by quite a bit higher than that I like to get in this kind of business about half price so it around 41 you know it really gets my attention of course it's at 65 now but you know looking at this you can really see why Michael burry may have been interested in jack-in-the-box especially if he was able to buy in at that really low price around $19 so I was surprised to see how much this dropped in the first quarter who knows what he got it at like I said but that that's impressive now if you're interested in exploring jack-in-the-box I highly recommend I always recommend you search for ticker symbols at value investors Club right so you'd go there you get a value investors club you would just type Jack in here and you can see when all the jack write-ups were now Jack of the boxes is what we want the last write-up was December of 2018 which is the one I have pulled up so you know these are really smart investors who submit these write-ups for individual stocks and so I would definitely dive into this I know it's a year and a half old so I'm sure there are things that you know you're not gonna want to there's gonna be updates let's put it that way you're gonna want to update these numbers and the investment thesis but I think this this is a really good example of how a high-level investor kind of breaks down the investment thesis of a company so I highly recommend checking that out at value investors club and yeah I'm curious to hear from you guys or have you been looking at jack-in-the-box what do you think of it if you have definitely I know we're starting to build a nice community of thoughtful investors here so please you know chime in in the comments if if you're looking at jack-in-the-box or you know what you think of it based on this video and you know what you've seen so that's all I wanted to share guys exciting time of the year as all these investors release their 13f filings and let us know what they've been up to so a lot of activity from Michael burry and Facebook is definitely on my list bowing was interesting bowing actually dropped a lot as well in the first quarter of 2020 and here's another example of a company that dropped a lot in the first quarter so that's all I got guys if you liked videos like this on specific companies smash that thumbs up button let me know in the comments which company you'd like me to dive into next I know AMD is on the list a few of you have asked for that Alibaba someone mentioned recently but yeah let us know what what you're looking at and you know what your investment thesis on it is it's always nice to get an extra pair of eyeballs on you know when you're considering an investment anyway that's all I got guys stay safe out there take care and I'll see you in the next video
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