저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 4~5년 내 자율주행이 주류가 되고 Tesla가 선도하며, 규제 변화로 Tesla 기업가치가 1조달러 수준으로 오를 수 있다고 주장. 다음 세대는 운전면허가 필요 없을 것이라 봄. Broadcom은 Apple 등과의 파트너십으로 AI 칩 수요가 커져 2027 가이던스상 연 60% 성장 시사, Nvidia는 2026년 약 21% 성장 전망 대비 고점 논란. Nvidia는 단기 조정 가능성 언급, Blackwell Ultra 이후 Rubin 출시 앞당겨질 수 있다는 소식 전함. 양자컴퓨팅은 이론 단계이나 Google이 상대적으로 투자 중이라 평가.
다듬은 글
when you think about the story going forward it's going to be full self-driving penetration autonomous and what I've ultimately so you believe that stuff oh I how about this I think Paul let us be respectful you wouldn't talk to je monster that way no I would not you're right so look I think over the next four to 5 years there will be a point where Sweeney is getting into a cyber cab no driver taking him to play golf that that will happen next four to 5 years IES predicts that within the next 4 to 5 years autonomous vehicles will become common with Tesla leading the way due to its advancements in self-driving technology he believes that regulatory changes will significantly boost Tesla's value potentially making it a trillion doll company IES also shares a personal story about betting that his daughter now 8 will never need a driver's license reflecting his belief in the inevitable rise of autonomous vehicles despite Tesla's full self-driving system not being perfect he sees it as a key driver of future growth and road safety he Compares Tesla's future to Apple's transformation emphasizing that like apple Services Tesla's autonomous driving technology will drive long-term value Ives also touches on the growing influence of companies like broadcom in the tech sector noting their strategic Partnerships with firms like apple right that that I mean if that happens that is a whole new game but but but that's our and again the whole issue is that between the musk Trump Romance the reason it's so important for the stock is because now regulation in this country is going to rapidly change in terms of autonomous and that we believe a trillion dollars alone for Tesla's valuation just based on autonomous Jean get us up to speed on this and you come at this from Loop Ventures and deep waterer asset where you've really dived into the entrepreneurial part of Technology do you buy the IV story caps now take a look at Nvidia versus the eco8 semis within this sector it seems to me there's a bit of a seesaw trade going on uh playing the dispersion of Nvidia relative to the rest especially if you look uh since uh Nvidia reported earnings November 20th you see nvidia's kind of done not much of anything and actually had a little bit of a downward tilt here while you have the average semiconductor stock going up obviously Nvidia is the big known growth Story the quality in the group and you see how it's essentially almost trading reverse of uh of the rest of the uh sector we'll see if that holds up sometimes this is just about crowded positioning kind of rectifying itself in the short term guys you're choosing IBM over Google you're choosing IBM over Nvidia well I think Nvidia right so nvidia's top clients are its top competitors so that the writing on the wall is is there not that I don't think it can go higher but I think that it's probably run its course right now and needs to pull back thank you I'll ask you this question then on the back of that who should be worried about this I saw in your notes probably not Nvidia not AMD yet but somebody has to be yeah I think you know there's some of the other uh Quantum uh companies there's private companies on that side but I think on the public side um you know the the worries are are probably because this again is so far away I think the the piece that uh the rest the mag 7 needs to be contemplating here and Nvidia needs to be thinking about is just what are they doing to have some sort of position within Quantum Computing it is it's Theory right now but I think you have to pursue Theory similar to uh when Aviation was Theory before we got flight I mean all these things go from projects from the lab and so I I would say the the potential losers are the companies that aren't doing that and I think Google is standing alone right now uh with within the mag uh 7 in terms of their investments in Quantum Jee monster deep waterer asset manager we're just showing the chart of Nvidia um and remember Nvidia fell yesterday in the back of the news of the China investigation so it's interesting that it doesn't you know it can't catch a bid today and then we have interesting superc computering uh news Well it it it certainly this is a a a trade today about tomorrow Nvidia arguably could be you know yesterday's trade today I don't know but but I I I would look at the semiconductor space you cannot single out Nvidia I would look at semis which today hit another important relative value underperformance to the S&P which takes you almost all the way back to February of this year which was when they were going to to the moon so it's you know again a relative value chart looks a little bit like a reverse Head and Shoulders on on the way down did you write last week that uh maybe there's some U earlier news on Reuben which would allow you to build in some better numbers for 25 well so we all know about Blackwell and then the next Chip's Reuben in between there's a chip called Blackwell Ultra which is going to potentially boost the back half of next calendar year however Nvidia does seem to be asking their supply chain and their memory makers hey can you pull this thing up we want to get Reuben out a little sooner and the evidence is just stacking up up now of course uh these launches are very complex these are very complex chips but it's good to see them wanting to keep to that one-year Cadence and if Ruben does get pulled up in 2026 calendar you could see faster growth in the hundreds of basis points we said and then that helps uh there's a lot of folks right now going Ben I get it next year is growing 50% plus what about 26 well these are the types of things if we get 30% instead of 20 that Stock's going much higher um so Jean kick things off what do you think we learned this week Kell I think we learned a lot I think we learned a lot in terms of the sustainability of the AI infrastructure trade of course broadcom focuses on custom silicon which is different than nvidia's gpus but the storyline that this is going to run out the AI infrastructure is going to dramatically slow next year essentially a strong data point that this is going to be growing faster for longer and just want to quickly put some numbers around that is that if you take broadcom's 2027 guidance which it's remarkable that they're stretching out that far but 2027 guidance it basically implies about 60% annual growth right now investors are expecting Nvidia to grow in 2026 at around 21% and so I think that that's one piece that we learned uh this week the second is that the pace of AI Innovation continues to be rapid of course with Google coming out with Gemini 2.0 and so this is a big week for AI Steve would you differentiate for us between Nvidia on the one hand and broadcom on the other and why people have become so currently excited with broadcom the numbers the earnings that the report this week good right not kick ass great but uh well there was also this report earlier in the week that Brock's working with apple now to help them do some artificial intelligence ship so it's a different yes to your point Nvidia makes those gpus they're more expensive but broom has become this player that companies go to Google by the way is using broadcom to make their artificial intelligence ships as well now reportedly apple is getting in on that as well that get that makes it really exciting and these are the of course the ones that run in the servers for training their AI models what's really interesting about Apple at least what we've learned so far what they publicly disclosed so far they've been using these alternative chips to train their apple intelligence stuff they've been using chips from Amazon they've been using chips from Google which by the way like I said broadcom has a hand in helping make those uh what they haven't been doing is running out there like Microsoft and and meta have been doing and and Google to some extent buying up gobs and gobs and gobs of Nvidia chips and putting them in a server Farm somewhere and training their AI models they've been renting these other alternative chips doesn't mean they're not using Nvidia but it does mean at least what they publicly disclosed they're looking at these Alternatives it's pretty impressive they've been able to do this and and launch Apple intelligence in the way they have without spending as much as some of the rivals have 100% I I think that the reality is is that if you're born today there's no chance that you're going to born in the US today there's no chance you're going to ever need a driver's license if you're eight years old today there's no chance talk about what you talk about like with your kid like how you always say like your kid like will will your kid yeah so she um I have a daughter she's 8 years old and uh I had a bet when just after she was born that she would never have a driver's license and a couple weeks ago i' had a uh I tried the latest version of Tesla FSD for 20 minutes and had a couple interventions it's not there yet but it is remarkable the progress that's making I think that the whole conversation around Tesla very few people are actually experiencing how far along they are and then you layer on top of that the fact that humans are becoming worst drivers 40,000 plus people lose their lives a year in Auto accents in the us alone and then uh you layer on top of that what GM Cruz announced this week basically backing off from autonomy it just leaves this wide open opportunity for Tesla to really be I think one of the two key players within autonomy and so I think that that's not fully appreciated in shares of Tesla so Dan when we think about the Tesla Story I mean I pardon me the cynic of me thinks Elon Musk is trying to get me to take my focus away from bending metal which is a low margin business competitive business to other bets to use a term but you think those other bets like autonomous driving Robo taxis are real but I view it similar like as keen's talked about for a decade it's like with apple but originally and Jean talk about as well you just looked at Apple as a hardware player smartphone but what's been the key of the valuation why it's going to be the first one the $4 trillion Market Club it's because of services it's because so when you think about Tesla I would compare autonomous the software FSD to Apple Services relative to that Cupertino story that's why it's so important 7 million Vehicles out there you have 10 million vehicle over next year or two and even when you look at weo which is a Google Play Those are $200,000 I got to get this in yesterday we had great coverage thank you to our team for linking it up with the president-elect at the New York Stock Exchange the billionaire of the United States was not there I answer the critics of eon must IES is he getting taxpayer support for all of his Ventures is he getting a free ride off the back of the American taxpayer I I I disagree I would argue you're talking about he made a bet for the ages with Trump and essentially iced out if you look at last administrations when it comes to Biden Administration especially around EES and now you're going to really see him doubling down and and within the Beltway there was going to be major changes and when that knock at the door happens it's m Dan IES predicts that autonomous vehicles will become mainstream in the next 4 to 5 years with Tesla leading the charge he believes regulatory changes will drive Tesla's valuation into the trillion dollar range similar to Apple's growth through its services Ives also highlights the increasing likelihood that future Generations won't need drivers licenses emphasizing the growing shift towards self-driving cars he also discusses the role of companies like broadcom in the AI and semiconductor Industries noting their strategic Partnerships with tech giants like apple this evolving Tech landscape presents significant opportunities for both both Tesla and companies in the semiconductor sector how will regulatory changes affect Tesla's Market position what is broadcom's potential in shaping the future of AI and semiconductors
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