저자: David Carbutt · 외국인
다듬은 글
Dan Ives just shared some bombshell predictions. Check this out. All right, we're back on the belltech earnings kickoff in just a few weeks. Our next guest says it will be a popcorn moment for AI. Joining me now, Wed Bush's Dan Ies. It's good to see you. I don't think anybody is really surprised to hear you say that given how bullish you've been.
Is there a name that you're most bullish about of all the companies that you cover and people are so used to hearing you speak about? Scott say look about 30% of the deals have been accelerated on the Microsoft side. I think that continues to be when I look at Azure and where they are in AI. I mean that that's why I believe Microsoft you know is trend toward a $5 trillion market cap but that that's the one to me this quarter that sticks out front and center.
And look and that's bullish for just use cases what we're seeing across the board as Nadella is sort of leading the charge $5 trillion market cap. So, I'm I'm actually kind of surprised that of all the names that are out there, Microsoft is is the one that you've chosen. Um, sure, the stocks performed quite well, but it hasn't performed the best of the group.
Why? I think Street is underestimating what this demand looks like. I mean, look, I could say, you know, 6 months ago it was Alphabet, right? And that sort of I think caught up a bit even though we continue to be very bullish in that but I think it really just comes down to like what we're seeing in the field from all the partners from these cloud accelerations.
Street is underestimating the hyperscaler demand and that goes for Google that goes for Amazon goes for Microsoft and I think that when I look at next year you're I think ultimately underestimating numbers across the board for tech by 15 20% and underestimating cap X by probably 30%. That is why we feel it's a get the popcorn out moment for tech stocks.
But you don't you don't feel like you're overestimating anything. And I know you talk about these, you know, the popcorn moment. I think some people fear that people are eating too much cotton candy, right? Big sugar high. You you heard more of that was it was Ken Griffin talk about a sugar high um this week.
Do you as an analyst, do you think you're going to be able to identify when when things look like they actually have gone gone too far? Yeah. Look, that that's my job. I mean, that's why like I travel around the world talking to customers, talking to more customers later today is trying to understand what the demand curve looks like, what the use cases look like even on software names like MongoDB, Snowflake, of course, Massive AI, Palanteer, and others.
But that's what we're focused on. And as we continue to still see it accelerate and the demand plays out, to me, that's why we stay pound the table sort of bullish going into year end. We've talked about NASDAQ 24 to 25,000 and that continues to sort of be our view. Still two to three years left in this tech bull market where we are in this AI cycle.
And you don't look at any of these circular deals, so to speak, and raise an eyebrow in in any way wondering whether it all really is going to lead to the promised land. Look, it's a great question. I get like some of the concerns out there, you know, especially someone like myself covered tech stocks back in the '90s.
The difference here is that it's the use cases and ultimately the buildout that's the validation moment. And when you look at some of these deals, I think it's just laying the foundation for the fourth industrial revolution. But when you look at OpenAI, for every dollar they put in Nvidia in AMD, they're going to get 12, 15, $17 in revenue.
And I think that's why I'm not concerned about it because this is you're building really the foundation for enterprise and consumers over the coming, you know, decade. And that's why overall in tech as it goes into the second, third, fourth derivative across chips, software, autonomous, the grid, right?
I mean names like AO, GNOVA and others, you know, Nebus. I think that speaks to our view. The ripple effect is going to be massive here in tech. I may have said this to you. I said it the other day and I can't remember if it was directly to you. Apple feels like the afterthought in in all this again.
I mean, the stock has had an actually a really nice move. No one's really talking about it much, but it's on the precipice of a new closing high, right? The first, in fact, since December of 2024. What happens from here? And and and why? I think it's going to be a massive outperformer. Apple, I mean, that's why we've stayed with it despite obviously them not being on the outside looking in when it comes to AI.
It's for two reasons. One, it's that Google Gemini partnership. I think that's going to be the game changer for Apple. That's going to get them into the AI game and and that's very significant in terms of the biggest install base in the world. The two is that look numbers are going to move up because look what's happened.
China from all of our checks will be in Asia next week. I mean it's trending what 5 10% above expectations. That's not factored in. And it goes back to like the last few months, right? I mean the streets been extremely bearish on it. You're starting to see a little more positive. I continue to think New York City cab driver is bearish on Apple.
That's a good thing relative to what I think is a stock just starting this next phase of acceleration. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon's cloud AI demand is accelerating faster than Wall Street estimates capture with 2025 earnings likely underestimated by 15 to 20% and capex by 30%. Dan states about 30% of the deals have been accelerated on the Microsoft side.
He emphasizes the street is underestimating what this demand looks like. And when I look back at next year, you're under. I think ultimately underestimate numbers across the board for tech by 15 and 20% and underestimate capex by probably 30%. He also says Wall Street is underestimating the hypers scale demand and that goes for Google and that goes for Amazon and that goes for Microsoft.
This is one of the most significant market calls from one of tech's most connective analysts. When Dan Ies says 30% of Microsoft deals have accelerated, he's talking about enterprise customers moving up their cloud and AI adoption timelines, shifting purchases planned for later quarters or years into immediate deployments.
This acceleration pattern is the opposite of what happens in weak demand environments where deals get pushed out. It signals that companies view AI capabilities as urgent competitive necessities rather than nice to have future investments. The specific focus on Azure is important because Microsoft cloud platform has become the primary gateway to OpenAI's models and broader AI capabilities.
When enterprise want to deploy AI, they're increasingly doing it through Azour because of the tight Microsoft Open AI integration. This creates a powerful cycle where AI demand drives Azour growth which drives overall Microsoft revenue and profits. The claim that the street estimates are 15 to 20% too low for earnings and 30% too low for capex is enormous if accurate.
On Microsoft scale, a 15 to 20% earnings underestimation represents tens of billions in additional revenue and profits that aren't necessarily priced into the stock. The larger 30% capex underestimation is even more significant in my point of view because it shows the infrastructure buildout is accelerating faster than Wall Street models assume.
We've been hearing this time and again from CEOs such as Nvidia CEO from Jensen Wang. He keeps saying hyperscalers are making forecasts of how much chips they want to buy and then 6 months down the line the forecast turned out to be wrong on the downside. Higher capex from hyperscalers means more chip purchases from Nvidia and AMD, more data center construction, more power infrastructure, basically validating the entire AI infrastructure thesis at a larger scale than the consensus expected.
Dan Ies isn't making this call just based on financial models or industry reports. He's talking directly to Microsoft channel partners, system integrators, and enterprise customers who are actually implementing these solutions. This ground level intelligence gives him visibility into demand before it shows up in reported financials.
When partners report acceleration across their entire book of business, it's a leading indicator that companies reported numbers will beat expectations. The statement that this applies broadly goes for Google, goes for Amazon, and goes for Microsoft means this isn't a one company phenomenon, but an industrywide acceleration.
All three major hyperscalers are seeing demand exceed Wall Street expectations at the same time. This validates that AI workload migration to cloud is a lasting trend rather than market share shifts between providers. A rising tide lifts all boats means the total addressable market is expanding faster than expected.
The $5 trillion market cap target for Microsoft is also significant. Microsoft currently trades around $3 trillion. So reaching five means roughly a 65% upside from current levels. That's an aggressive target for the world's third largest company, but it's based on the thesis that AIdriven cloud growth will drive earnings substantially higher than consensus models over the next few years.
For a company Microsoft side and maturity to have that much upside potentially shows just how transformative Dan Ives believes this AI cycle will be. The timing element going into year end and looking at next year suggests this acceleration will become visible in upcoming quarterly reports. This isn't a long-term speculative call, but a near-term prediction that Q4 2025 and 2026 earnings will surprise significantly to the upside.
If I is correct, we should see evidence in the form of raise guidance, beat and raise quarters and upward earnings revisions across the hyperscala group within the next few quarters. The underestimation of capex is particularly important for semiconductor and infrastructure investors. If hyperscalers are spending 30% more on capex than street models show, that translates directly into more revenue for Nvidia, AMD, networking equipment providers, data center construction companies, and power infrastructure firms.
This creates a multiplication effect where one underestimation hypers scale demand leads to another underestimation infrastructure spending which leads to yet another underestimation chip demand. The popcorn moment framing suggests Dan Ives is expecting these earnings reports to be dramatically better than expected entertainment level size beats rather than modest surprises.
This implies he's seen demand acceleration that's significant enough to shock even bullish investors. If you found this video of value, why not consider hitting subscribe?
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