저자: Yeodeot · 한국인
요약 보기
미국 시장이 2월 초까지 급등 후 조정 중이며, 조정 기간 추가 매수를 위해 현금을 확보 중이라고 밝힘. 과거 2010~2021 장기 강세장에서는 TQ/SOXL 장기투자로 큰 수익이 가능했으나 미래도 그럴지는 의문. 나스닥이 30% 하락을 3~4회 겪었고, 나스닥 200% 상승 시에도 TQ(TQQQ)는 마이너스가 될 수 있다고 백테스트 결과 제시. 국내 SK하이닉스 10년 백테스트: 1배 220%, 2배 214%, 3배 -7%. 삼성전자 2013년 1월 기준 1배 92%, 2배 96%, 3배 5%. LG전자 10년 1배 21%, 2배 -53%, 3배 -94%. 결론적으로 TQ는 단기 강한 랠리 구간에만 적합, 장기 보유는 위험.
다듬은 글
Hello, this isYeodeot. I am currently testing whether retirement is possible. The US market surged until early February but has been undergoing a correction for about a week starting last week. I am securing cash to make additional purchases during this correction timing, but I need to continue investing to rescue the 36 million won loss in my account that I am stuck with as a "bullish stock" (TQ and CWEB).
I am constantly debating how to send this rescue team. Since I believe the market will definitely rise this year, I am agonizing over whether to make these additional purchases on TQ or QLD. I mentioned this in a previous video, but I am bringing it up again because I discovered areas that could be very risky while backtesting TQ in various directions.
In the past, from 2010 to 2021, when bear markets were short and bull markets were long, it was possible to earn significant profits from long-term investments in TQ or SOXL. However, if asked whether things will flow that way in the future, I do not think so. TQ generates massive profits only if the Nasdaq trends upward nicely, but [ based on QQ] has faced a 30% drop three or four times...
Even if the market trends upward and QQ rises by 200%, there are still situations where TQ could end up negative. Please note that the indicators shown in the example video were created by me using stock data, so there may be significant discrepancies compared to reality. Last time, I tested the returns on domestic stocks SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and LG Electronics using 2x and 3x leverage.
Among them, SK Hynix showed a 220% return on the standard stock over 10 years, while the 2x leverage yielded 214% and the 3x leverage yielded -7%. Looking at the Hynix chart, it appears there were two drops in the 40% range and two drops in the 30% range over the 10-year period. This suggests that long-term investment with 3x leverage can be risky if you experience several large declines like this.
However, the data indicates that up to 2x leverage appears to be a safe bet. For Samsung Electronics, if you had purchased it around January 2013, the standard stock has a 92% return as of January 13th, while the 2x leverage yields 96% and the 3x leverage yields 5% over 10 years. The base stock has risen by over 90%, but the 3x leverage yields only 5%.
Lastly, I ran LG Electronics; looking at the chart, the base stock shows a 21% return over 10 years, while the 2x leverage shows -53% and the 3x leverage shows -94%. The stock price clearly rose by 20% over 10 years, yet the 2x and 3x results were like this. You can calculate the return by leveraging all these stocks.
You can check it via the pinned link. Looking ahead, if the Nasdaq trend follows an upward trajectory like SK Hynix, we might see a situation where QQ or QLD rise by 200%, while only QQ or TQQ shows negative returns. Given these test results, it is clear that TQ should be used for investing in zones where a strong short-term rally is expected, but I believe long-term investing carries significant risk.
I think I need to give some more thought to how I will send out the rescue team. I wish you successful trading today, and please subscribe and like. Thank you.
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