저자: Motivation2Invest진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 크루즈 주식은 단기 반등이 있었으나 수익이 0인 상황에서 너무 위험하며, 장기적으로 회복은 예상하지만 지금 직접 투자는 피하는 편이 낫다는 입장. 하워드 막스 인터뷰 인용: 로열캐리비안이 11% 수익률로 3억 달러 이상 담보부 선순위 채권을 발행한 것은 연준의 시장 지지와 저금리 환경에서 나온 인위적 현상이라는 취지. 막스는 개별 기업 평가는 하지 않겠다고 했으며, 기업이 회복 시 75% 수준까지 돌아와도 선순위 채권 투자자는 괜찮을 수 있다고 언급. 카니발: 1월 말 급락 후 사우디 투자 펀드가 약 8% 지분을 취득하며 주가가 반등. 노르웨지안 등 동종주도 동반 상승. 재무 지표: 카니발은 PE 약 3.5로 낮지만 유동비율 0.23으로 단기 부채 상환 능력이 취약하다고 분석. 애널리스트 컨센서스는 보유. 단기 트레이더는 반등 구간에서 수익 가능하나 신중해야 한다는 의견. 진행자는 여행 수요 회복은 장기적으로 기대하나 심리적 위축과 규제 완화 시점이 불확실하다고 봄. 진행자는 본인이 FTSE100 ETF(Vanguard)로 간접 보유 중이라고 밝힘. 영국 여행 산업 회복은 장기적으로 낙관.
다듬은 글
due to the recent global pandemic travel restrictions were implemented and the planet was put into complete lockdown one of the hardest hit industries was travel and even more so Cruise Lines docks which plummeted to record lows however then something strange happened these cruise line stocks actually rebounded despite their companies earning zero revenue now partly this was due to government stimulus packages which boosted the entire stock market in general however it's interesting to see that these cruise line stocks rebounded more than the airline so why did the cruise line stocks rebound could they crash again and could they be a good turnaround investment to answer this I'm gonna turn to one of the greatest investors of all time Howard Marks has predicted multiple stock market crashes in the past and he is the voice of reason during volatile times his famous investing memos are even read by legendary investors such as the great Warren Buffett so in this video I'm gonna show you an exclusive interview of Howard Marks which was filmed less than 24 hours ago and I'm also going to deep dive into the Cruise Line stocks and look if they could be a potential turnaround investment or they are just too risky and you should stay away let's dive in Howard a few days ago Royal Caribbean the cruise line sold more than three billion dollars of debt secured debt I should add had a yield of about 11% now I probably don't need to remind you but this is a company with zero revenue and very little hope of returning to its pre coronavirus state any time in the near future yet the credit market is open to Royal Caribbean how do you make sense of that number one they'll get more back into business than everybody thinks because you know I think there's a knee-jerk reaction to say well you know the cruise ships were petri dishes for the infection we have this image of people floating around on cruise ships exchanging the disease with each other being refused entry to ports and so forth nobody will ever go back I understand Eric that bookings for cruise ships in 2021 are quite strong and that there there is a coterie of fans for cruises and they want to demonstrate their support for their for their beloved pastime that's number one number two they're there the cruise lines for example do have great asset protection and if you can come in to a situation and if you can buy senior debt which will be paid ahead of all the other creditors and it's a small amount backed by a large amount of assets then you can feel okay about doing it business won't come back a hundred percent to what it used to be but if it comes back 75 percent the people who buy that senior debt will do okay and then the other thing is that you know the Fed buying has caused high grade bonds to drop in yield when people look at that they say man those high-yield bonds yield too much we're gonna buy them that causes them to drop in yield the people of the stock market look at that and they say well we can't get much yield from bonds anymore stocks look much more attractive we're going to buy those so those go up in price we don't talk in the stock market about down in yield so everything is relative to everything else and the strong fed participation and and support of the markets has caused people to say oh you know a cruise line bond at 11 looks good to be you know non-energy high-yield bonds yield about seven four hundred extra basis points for taking the risk of a cruise line with good asset protection we'll do that and so they get sold it's it's what happens in a market which is I would say artificially ordered by Fed buying so let's talk a little bit more about the artificiality of it in your opinion Howard wood Royal Caribbean be able to sell secured investment grade debt at all or just secured investment grade data to yield at 11% if the Fed weren't back stopping the market I don't know Royal Caribbean I don't even know if it's Caribbean or Caribbean but I don't know that company that well and I wouldn't I can't and I wouldn't comment on any one company but I think it's fair to say that that there is a yield at which they can sell well collateralized senior debt even if the Fed were not in operation but it probably wouldn't be eleven right guys so documents Carnival Cruise Lines we can see that over the past five years the stock was trading between forty and sixty dollars per share and everything was going fine and the ship was sailing great and then on the 31st of Jan around that sort of time there was a big plummets due to obviously the global health crisis however it hit the cruise lines even harder than you might imagine now this is because if you check out here in January an outbreak on the carnival own Diamond Princess ship actually led to 712 passengers contracting the virus and nine deaths which is not good sign if you're going on a nice vacation so Carnival was obviously obliterated at that point and then it received here received a nice little boost from the Saudi investment Trust which caused the stock to rally so effectively Saudi government now owns eight percent of Carnival Cruise Lines this act of goodwill or purchase in a fallen angel as some may call it actually cause the other stocks such as Norwegian to also rally at a similar time as optimism was in the air for this stock to also receive help now as you can see these stocks are very very volatile so so as you can see Norwegian Cruise Lines is up seventeen point nine five percent today Royal Caribbean cruise lines secured a two point two billion dollar loan to keep itself a flow the fact of the matter is that these rallies are significant given that these cruise line companies are effectively earning zero and that's just the fact of the situation checking out the stocks in more detail here so it's currently got a stock rank of 62 over the last thirty days of trading says it's great value at ninety no momentum and the quality so that's just the numbers side of this but as you can see up until the incident it was doing very very well as a cruise line so it's have increasing revenues here increasing profits current analyst consensus is to hold so they're not saying buy they're not saying sell the Saint just hold at the moment the p/e ratio is obviously great three point five here the risk comes in with its current ratio so the current ratio is how many times can this Cruise Line company pay its debts and liabilities so if it can pay those debts and liabilities once it should have a current ratio of 1 and really with companies you want to be looking for a current ratio approximately 2 or 1.5 so you know it at least it's got enough cash in the bank to cover its short term liabilities and debts in this case it's 0.23 which is not a good sign for the cruise line industry in general just got high debts it's basically got bills to pay and no income so there's a lot of traders in the moment and they're looking at the cruise line stocks and I believe if you're trading the cruise line stocks you can make decent returns at the moment so as you can see it's up 15% today so those people who are jumping in and out of the cruise line stocks they can do very well but it must be done with caution if you did want to invest in these as you believe the industry will recover in the future I personally I believe it will recover but I don't believe it will be a a simple and straightforward path and I believe there's better businesses to invest in at the moment also at great prices so if I compare the crew the cruise lines here click compare if you did wish to invest in a cruise line which should you invest in now according to this software here it's compared Carnival Norwegian and Royal Caribbean cruise lines it says Carnival is that is the best place Cruise Line to invest into looking at its net profits looking its price to earnings ratio to the lowest price earnings ratio so Carnival is in the best position to weather the storm out of the cruise lines and it's also the company which has had the Saudi investment so that gives it that extra security now so if I did wish to invest in the Cruise Lines is a speculative investment Carnival would be my choice now let me just check out the carnivals in the footsie 100 so Carnival Cruise Lines is actually in the footsie 100 which is the top 100 companies in the UK by market cap so personally I have actually already got shares in this company indirectly and in a safe manner so I've got investments into the Vanguard footsie 100 ETF which is a great fund which tracks the footsie 100 so that also has given me shares in Carnival Cruise Lines however because I'm not directly exposed to this company my investments are a lot more protected footsie 100 is beginning to climb but it really did take a sharp drop and I believe the main reason for that is due to the fact that the main components in the footsie 100 are oil companies banking stocks and of course you've even got Cruise Line stock in there there's an airline in there there's a couple of travel companies in there so you can see why there's been a big fall here overall I believe Cruise Line stocks are way too risky right now and despite their recent rebounds I don't believe this will last another issue to take into account is a psychological impact of this great health crisis well people wish to be contained on a giant metal ship in the middle of the ocean away from all healthcare services and pay over the odds for this luxury I don't think so especially not in the short term however I am optimistic of a recovery of the travel industry definitely in Europe and especially in the UK the UK is notorious for its bad rainy weather and the British will not sit on the sidelines forever without their holiday in the Sun so I believe in the long term the government will have to ease restrictions and quarantine periods I made a previous video on my top 5 UK stocks to invest in and there's a special trouble stock in there which I think you should check out I'll leave that on the link below in addition be sure to check out the full interview with Howard Marks I'll leave that on a link below so what are your thoughts on Cruise Line stocks risky investment or turn around comment your thoughts below ay as I do these Wonder Bread yeah yeah yeah coming down yeah I just wonder way
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