저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라의 슈퍼차저 개방은 테슬라의 주류 자동차 업체화를 보여주는 신호이며, 전기차 시장 성장 기조에 강세(bullish)라는 주장. 슈퍼차저 개방 및 업계 영향: 네덜란드에서 비테슬라 전기차(BMW, 메르세데스 등)도 슈퍼차저를 이용할 수 있게 된 것은 시작에 불과하며, 향후 12~18개월 내 글로벌하게 확대될 것으로 전망. 테슬라 주가 및 허츠 계약: 테슬라 주가가 급등해 분할 조정 기준 5,000달러를 넘을 수 있었다는 언급. 허츠와의 10만 대 구매 계약 등 긍정적 뉴스는 주류화 전략의 일환으로 평가. 전기차 침투율 전망: 미국 자동차 판매 중 전기차 비중이 현재 2%에서 2025년 10%, 2030년 30% 수준으로 증가할 것으로 전망. 허츠 딜은 주류 채택의 전환점으로 평가. 생산 및 수요 상황: 테슬라는 공급망 문제를 비교적 잘 관리하고 있으며, 중국에서도 점유율을 회복 중. 수요는 공급을 초과하는 상황이고 현재 문제는 수요가 아닌 공급 문제라고 강조. 중국은 내년 테슬라 인도량의 40%를 차지할 핵심 시장으로 언급. 니오(NIO)에 대해서도 긍정적 입장 유지. 유럽 전략: 폭스바겐 전기차 수요 둔화 속에서 테슬라는 점유율을 유지하거나 확대. 베를린 기가팩토리가 유럽 공급 거점이 될 것이며, 현재 중국 생산 차량을 유럽으로 수출하는 구조가 베를린 가동으로 개선될 것으로 봄. 오스틴 공장과 합쳐 연간 생산능력은 약 100만 대에서 200만 대 이상으로 확대 예정. 수요 및 전환점: 중국에서 나타나는 전기차 수요 증가가 유럽과 미국으로 확산 중. 높은 유가와 충전 인프라 확충이 전기차 판매를 촉진할 것. 자동차 산업의 1950년대 이후 최대 변혁으로 묘사하며, 글로벌 시장 규모는 향후 10년간 5조 달러로 전망. 보조금 및 리스크: 정부 보조금이 차량 가격 경쟁력에 중요한 역할을 하며, 소비자 입장에서 최대 1만 2~1만 5천 달러 수준의 보조금이 큰 차이를 만듦. 보조금 축소 가능성과 의회 논쟁이 리스크 요인. 일부 투자자의 우려(단기 공급 차질 등)에 대해서는 일시적(transitory) 현상으로 평가. 출연자 전망: 테슬라 주가가 1,500달러 강세 시나리오로 계속 상승 중이라는 견해 및 장기 성장 베팅 관점 유지.
다듬은 글
are you suffering from range anxiety if you're not a tesla owner and you live in the netherlands soon you'll be able to use tesla's extensive supercharger network on your bmw bmw or mercedes ev here to talk about all things tesla and the ev world is uh wed bush securities dan ives you are the managing director there and we thank you for joining us here let's talk about this story because this is all about tesla going mainstream this is something that i've heard some other owners uh kind of pine for i guess you could say this is only a roll out program or test program in the netherlands but how big is this for tesla well i think it's just the tip of the sphere i think they're going to be doing this more and more because musk and tesla recognize and the supercharger obviously they built that mode but to really see more widespread eevee adoption as part of this green tidal wave that's going to be a key so them opening this up now view is bullish for the space i think it's both for the sector and i think it's something we're going to see more and more over the coming call 12 to 18 months globally and we were just talking over the break this is an issue that arose a couple weeks ago but you know with tesla stock soaring high like this and as you said on a split adjusted basis it would have topped five thousand i think that even bested kathy woods uh target from years ago um a lot of a lot of times any positive news comes out from tesla like the hertz deal where they're gonna buy a hundred thousand cars there's this whole contingent on on twitter and elsewhere um where they offer some competing thesis but as you said this is all part of the rollout plan of tesla becoming a more mainstream uh automobile maker this is what ford and gm do what are your thoughts here look i i think today in the u.s two percent automobiles are evs you know we think that goes to 10 percent by 25 30 by 2030 and i think what the reason that hurts deal was such a tipping point we're seeing more and more mainstream adoption that was key to what we saw in herds both deals in the auto industry though there were always a scene there's never just one bulk deal and that's what we're seeing play out now look in terms of the haters continuing the hate they hated a hundred they hated 5 500.
i think if many of these haters were nfl scouts they probably would have been super negative on tom brady coming out of the 2000 draft well who wants five super bowl titles i don't even know if that that i might have low ball seven but yeah seven that's that's very impressive especially considering he is my age i couldn't take those hits i can tell you that but i want to talk about some of the numbers um the delivery numbers that came out over the weekend for the month of october tesla uh they they seem to be managing this supply chain crisis pretty well and you compare them with neo complete opposite story here yeah i think almost have fun like in terms of what you're seeing but also remember when we talk about neo in china tesla saw those headwinds earlier this year now those are talons and we're seeing demand outstrip supply pretty significantly globally but even in china and i think you're seeing some share gains them really starting to gain back some of that momentum in china china's the linchpin to the story that'd be 40 of deliveries going into next year for tesla you and neo i continue to view them as gold standard love that name in terms of everything they're doing now in relative to some of the supply chain issues that's hurting them but i still think investors have that goldfish mentality view this is transitory it's part of this sort of green tidal wave playing out globally and what about the demand in europe we saw vw really it looked like they were going to overtake potentially tesla earlier this year but the demand for vw evs have fallen off and tesla has really remained and kept a large part of its share maybe even grown it i haven't checked the last month or so but how critical is china to that strategy i know that they import a lot of vehicles from china into europe and then we have the gigafactory in germany and other places which continue to get built out so you just give us an overview of the demand for evs in europe well it's a great point and i think a big part you know you hit on hurst and four but a big part of the story will quite hop in berlin with giga you know gig of berlin that's going to give a major supply artery in europe right now they're making cars in china shipping them to europe so that that's something where in europe that's in our opinion going to be a big growth driver going into the next few years giga berlin is going to be key and then of course what's happening in austin as well i mean when you take a step back you know this is a coming out right now called about million capacity in terms of units a year from now they'll be over 2 million but i think it just shows now they don't have a demand issue they that's actually a high class problem they have a supply issue that gets alleviated now with berlin and austin well on then let's stick with the supply front um is there going to is there pent up demand right now for evs across the world the answer almost seems obviously yes because there are shortages of cars everywhere but uh what's the horizon what's the turning point uh when can we see that well i think there's a few turning points i mean one is that naturally we are seeing what we're seeing in china is starting being mirrored now in europe as well as the u.s and that's why you're seeing more and more ev automakers go after you know what i've used the biggest transformation to the auto industry since 1950s now when you look at gas prices where they are especially globally but you look in europe where they are in the u.s that's going to catalyze more and more you know i think sales to ev and then the supercharger network's getting built out the grid it's carried in the stick but now the infrastructure starts to get built out and i think that this is just the start it's not just going to be tesla it's going to be star wars like gm ford and others that benefit vw in europe as part of what we're seeing is a 5 trillion dollar market over the next decade and getting back to that hurt steel one of the items that stuck out to me are the subsidies and government subsidies are going to play a big part in reducing the cost of some of these of these cars the fleet um i'm just wondering at what point do these disappear and how does that affect the competitiveness of the price point on these models well i think they they have disappeared but now you'll see them getting ratchet up and that's a big thing that's getting battled in the beltway right now especially if it's a union or a non-union ev factor but it's significant it's all about you know from a consumer perspective it's in apple's apples what am i paying for an ev versus a traditional gasoline fuel car subsidies are key some of them you could be getting upwards of 12 15 000 that's going to make a big difference and i think what we're going to see more and more a year two years from now evs or something it's not just going to be in california and some other states so we've seen it you know i believe this is something not just domestically but globally it's part of just a massive transformation that's just starting to play out that's why tesla's in the 1500 bull case stock continues to move higher but it speaks to right now which is the massive market that investors trying to play dan we always appreciate when you stop by dan ive's web
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