저자: DanIves · 외국인
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마이크로소프트 실적은 클라우드 중심으로 큰 호재이며, Ives는 클라우드 전환이 아직 3회 중 3이닝 수준이라며 주가가 400달러로 갈 것이라 전망함 실적 요약: 주당순이익 2.27달러(조정치)로 예상치 상회, 매출 450억 달러 이상으로 전년 대비 약 22% 증가, 인텔리전트 클라우드 부문 매출은 169.6억 달러로 전년 대비 약 31% 성장 클라우드 평가: Azure 성장률은 시장 기대치 약 46~47%를 웃돈 50% 수준으로 전반적으로 크게 상회, 실적발표 후 주가는 약 1% 상승했으며 연초 대비 약 40% 상승한 상태 가이던스 전망: 발표 콜에서 강한 가이던스가 나올 것으로 예상, 다만 Ives는 가이던스가 상회 가능하다고 봄 Xbox 및 PC 부문: Ives는 Xbox를 본질적으로 스토리에 대한 노이즈로 보며, 칩 부족이 PC 사업에 영향을 주고 있으나 투자자들은 이를 일시적 요인으로 보고 크게 우려하지 않는다고 평가 리스크: 러시아 해커의 MS 및 Azure 공격이 우려되나, Ives는 클라우드 확대에 따른 사이버보안 수요 증가로 오히려 보안기업(지스케일, 텐에이블, 크라우드스트라이크 등) 수혜로 봄, 해킹이 클라우드 성장을 막지는 못한다고 평가 핵심 체크포인트: 콜에서 가장 중요한 질문은 클라우드 성장 가속이 지속되는지 여부이며, 과거 코로나 특수 수요 반영으로 클라우드가 둔화될 것이라는 회의론은 반대로 나타나고 있다고 설명 수혜 확장: 이는 마이크로소프트에만 국한되지 않고 세일즈포스, 오라클, 도큐사인, 사이버보안 기업 전반에 긍정적이라고 봄 출연자 전망: Ives는 클라우드 스토리를 바탕으로 MS 주가 상승을 강하게 확신하며 400달러 도달을 예상함
다듬은 글
microsoft shares they are in focus here following the company's earnings report just a few minutes ago you can see shares up just around 1 earnings per share coming in at 2.27 adjusted that was better than what the street was expecting revenue of just over 45 billion is about a 22 jump from what we saw a year ago we know that microsoft's intelligent cloud segment that was a huge focus here for investors revenue in that division coming in just around 31 or excuse me showing 31 year over year growth and taking a look at that number here the revenue intelligent cloud coming in at 16.96 billion we want to bring in dan ives he's web bush's senior equity analyst for a little bit more on this and dan just taking a look at not much of a reaction in shares you can see the stock up just around one percent but what do you think of these results uh this was a cloud home run i mean if you look at the azure number whispers were about 46 47 gross came in at 50 really beat across the board i expect strong guidance on the call i think this is just more fueling the engine to drive this stock higher it just shows nadella in this cloud arms race is continuing to gain share dan as we look at the report i checked something on the yahoo page that the stock is up here to date 40 percent so if an investor is thinking okay now i'm going to jump in would you have them focus just on the fact that they seem to be hitting the home run as you say when it comes to azure or should they be looking more at you know where the xbox falls into the personal computing sector and can they expect this kind of growth in you know the next two or three quarters yeah this is all about the cloud transformation i mean they've turned into a cloud behemoth at microsoft what nadella has done it's big part of the re-reading and the story i mean this is a two trillion dollar market that's still in the third inning of playing out on a cloud transformation i think that's how you get a stock with a four in front of it everything else i kind of use gravy xbox i mean fundamentally that's really noise to the story right now and if you look at these results and gardens as we've seen over the last few years i think 24 hours from now a week from now there's a stock on its way to 400.
i know you're gonna say this is just a sideshow here but bringing up his pc business because of course it has implications here just in terms of the chip shortage how significantly that is hitting microsoft is this something that investors just simply aren't worried about given the outperformance of what you're talking about of what we're seeing in cloud look it's a great point that you bring up and you know our thought going into earnings is that when the new york city cab drivers talk about chip shortage it's out there and and i think investors are kind of looking through that dynamic and also understand it's transitory but also this is a cloud story i mean fundamentally it's our best cloud play i think it speaks to what you're seeing in terms of the secular demand digital transformation and right now nadella has the golden touch and that's continuing to actually accelerate not slow down um dan i'm curious there are the stories about russian hackers targeting microsoft and azure's cloud services could could that pose a threat going forward because it seems to be a daily thing that microsoft is having to deal with yeah microsoft is obviously caught in the middle i mean we saw with the solarwinds attack a year ago but i think what this just shows more and more companies governments move into the cloud and tangentially that's a massive beneficiary for cyber security companies like z scale or tenable crowdstrike among others and i think microsoft is going to further and further be entrenched on cyber security and that kind of you know that they can i call it a one-two punch in terms of what you're seeing on cloud and cyber i don't view those hacks as really you know stopping the cloud party here but it just shows more cautionary need to have software in there to protect from the bad guys dan what's the number one question that you want to hear answered on the call tonight i mean look i think the biggest question is about what they're seeing in terms of the acceleration of this cloud growth story go back to the last six months the haters will say that this was going to be a decelerating cloud because of a covet pull forward instead it's the opposite so given more cloudera went around what they're seeing from enterprises that's going to be the key and that's why i think you know coming off the call this is just combined with what i believe is going to be you know beatable guidance i think that is going to be front and center for investors what's the key question uh the analysts are going to ask them when that call begins i think the key question they'll really ask is it because it's not just for microsoft's about the broader cloud story in terms of what's going on because this is not just about microsoft i mean tangentia this is bullish for salesforce.com oracle docusign cyber security i think that's really the tea leaves that everyone wants to see but you know i think this is just another sort of trophy case report for uh for nadal and redmond uh you know as they as we've seen in these numbers dan is always great to get you on here with your instant reaction again microsoft shares moving to the upside a lot of that has to do with the strong numbers from its azure and its cloud services that dan has been talking about growth there just around 50 better than what the street was expecting so certainly a number or certainly a stock to keep in mind as we turn our focus to tomorrow's opening bells
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