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결론: 진행자는 인플레이션과 금리인상이 주식시장을 더 밀어내릴 수 있다는 Michael Burry의 경고를 소개하며, 특히 시가총액은 크지만 적자인 성장주를 피하라고 주장한다. 거시 환경: 9월 미국 CPI는 전년비 8.2%로 예상보다 높았고, 근원 인플레이션은 사상 최고치를 기록했다. 연준의 금리인상에도 물가 둔화 신호는 뚜렷하지 않다. Burry의 경고: 2021년 2월부터 인플레이션 위기를 예고했고, 주택시장 붕괴(모기지 금리 약 7%)와 빅테크 감원(메타 최대 1만2천명 등)을 지적했다. 그는 S&P500이 현재보다 약 50% 낮은 1,862포인트까지 하락할 수 있다는 계산을 제시했다. 시장 지표: 2022년 상반기 기준 물가 조정 시 S&P500 약 -25%, 나스닥 약 -34%, 비트코인 약 -64%였으며, 진행자는 이를 멀티플 압축 후 실적 압축이 이어질 수 있는 국면으로 해석했다. 적자 성장주: Burry는 시총 10억달러 이상이면서 EBITDA가 -1억달러 미만인 기업을 경계했다. 진행자 스크리닝 결과 266개 기업이 해당하며, 그중 Snowflake, Uber, Palantir, Snap 등이 포함된다. Ark Invest(Kathy Wood) 포트폴리오: Wood는 Exact Sciences(EXAS), UiPath(PATH), Block(SQ), Twilio(TWLO), Intellia(NTLA) 등 Burry가 경고한 종목에 대규모로 투자 중이다. Wood의 최상위 보유 24개 중 Burry 경고 대상이 아닌 종목은 Tesla, Zoom, Roku, Coinbase, Teladoc, Robinhood, Ionis, Nvidia 등 소수다. Wood의 반론: Wood는 CPI가 후행지표이며, 공급망 문제가 일부 해소되면서 디플레이션 압력이 나타나고 있다고 본다. 연준이 후행지표에 의존해 금리를 과도하게 올리면 경기침체를 심화시킬 수 있다고 주장한다. 장기적으로 Tesla를 최대 보유 종목으로 유지하고 있다. 리스크: 진행자는 훌륭한 기업이라도 단기적으로는 안전한 투자가 아닐 수 있다고 강조하며, 다음 연준 회의를 주요 변수로 꼽는다. 진행자 시장 전망: 진행자는 자신이 S&P500이 추가로 50% 하락할 것이라고 직접 예상하지는 않는다고 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
inflation data for September shows prices in the U.S remain at record highs Prices rose 8.2 percent year-over-year higher than analysts expected the direction of the U.S economy befuddling the experts again and rattling investors in a huge way the Federal Open Market committee's overarching Focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our two percent goal and there are no signs the Fed rate hikes are having a meaningful impact even though the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates at a Breakneck Pace core inflation just hit a new record high and while new inflation data keeps blindsiding the markets Michael burry actually predicted this scenario well before it began prepare for inflation reopening and stimulus on the way pre-covered it took three dollars of debt to increase GDP by one dollar and it's worse now an inflationary crisis that's what he called it back in February of last year he immediately followed that up with this the US government is inviting inflation with its modern monetary Theory tinged policies trillions more stimulus and reopening will boost demand as employee and supply chain costs Skyrocket hashtag paradigm shift I think a lot of people actually could see how closing the economy while Printing and handing out trillions of dollars would end up causing a lot of widespread damage now that damage is here the housing market is collapsing as mortgage rates have doubled over the past year making the thought of buying a home nearly impossible for many mortgage rates have reached almost seven percent a level that we haven't seen since the.com Bubble Burst back in the early 2000s and these mortgage rates are not done climbing likewise big companies are starting to freeze hiring and weigh people off by the thousands meta platforms could weigh off as many as 12 000 people or 15 percent of its entire Workforce as it restructures to help brace for a global recession according to layoffs.fyi over 80 000 Tech workers lost their jobs in 2022 alone with a lot more pain to come as some of the best companies on the planet like Google Microsoft and Apple are cutting hundreds of recruiters and closing thousands of job posts before deciding on their next move but not many people could predict just how much damage inflation would end up doing directly to the stock market speaking of Paradigm shifts and speculative Peaks the S P 500 bottom 13 lower than 2002's bottom in 2009 17 lower than 1998's low in two thousand two and ten percent lower than 1970s low in 1975.
15 percent lower than kovid's low would mean the S P 500 hitting 1862 points so Michael burry is predicting that this inflationary crisis will literally cut the S P 500 in half from where it is today that means the market could still have a long way to drop and for the record I'm not saying that I personally expect the market to drop another 50 right now but I do want to point out that Michael burry made this prediction well before many of the things adding fuel to this fire even began complicated and interconnected factors like the lingering Global Supply Chain issues the escalating tensions between China and Taiwan the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and oh yeah the absolute Market meltdown happening right now in the UK and not to bum you out even more but all those things are only contributing to the FED raising interest rates separately many U.S tech companies are experiencing weaker than expected earnings as consumed tumors continue to close their wallets or choose cheaper alternatives which should drop Company's stock prices even more and in a tweet from earlier this summer Michael burry pretty much called that too adjusted for inflation at 2022's first half S P 500 is down 25 to 26 percent the NASDAQ is down 34 to 35 percent Bitcoin down 64 to 65 percent that was multiple compression next up earnings compression so maybe halfway there here's where things get really interesting over the past month Michael burry has been taking shots at a different much more specific Target on October 10th he tweeted this was coming because it has always been this way before how anyone over the age of 40 didn't see it coming is a riddle the answer being greed with a capital G attached to Michael Murray's tweet is a chart of RK Arc invests Flagship Innovation fund managed by Kathy Wood Michael burry has been constantly warning against investing in the types of companies held by Arc invests funds for example a couple weeks earlier Michael burry tweeted a warning against investing in companies with high market caps and negative earnings on September 30th there were still 218 primary stock listings in the United States with a market cap of over 1 billion dollars and an ebitda of less than negative 100 million dollars 29 of them had market caps of over 10 billion totaling a market cap of 655 billion dollars saying it again all the silliness must go he didn't mention any specific companies by name so I went ahead and found them all on Yahoo finance I screened the NASDAQ and the New York Stock Exchange for companies with an ebitda of less than negative 100 million dollars while also having a market cap of a billion dollars or more today 266 companies make the list so even more than the 218 that Michael burry mentioned in his tweet there are some pretty big names on this list including companies like snowflake Uber rivien palantir and Snapchat I want to respect your time so so I won't read this full table to you but let me at least call out a few of Kathy Woods biggest positions across arkinvest's family of actively managed funds Kathy Wood has 504 million dollars in exact Sciences ticker symbol exas 501 million dollars in uipath p-a-t-h 458 million dollars in Block ticker symbol SQ 435 million dollars in twilio twlo and 409 million dollars in intelia Therapeutics ticker symbol ntla that's over two billion dollars worth of the exact stocks that Michael burry is warning about in arkinvest's top 10 positions alone Kathy Wood has many billions of dollars more in these companies across the rest of her funds which I'll show you in just a little bit no wonder he's calling out Arc invest's Flagship fund directly in his tweets here's the thing Michael burry focuses on short-term price action whether we're talking about his huge short position against Tesla stock last year or when he said he should be short Tesla stock again last month it's clear that he's not really thinking five or ten years out like Kathy Wood is that's why she's been keeping Tesla stock as her number one holding even as the market keeps tanking while Michael burry is calling for inflation Kathy Wood has been talking about how deflation has already been making its way through the economy as commodity prices keep falling inventories keep piling up and almost every store is preparing to slash prices for huge holiday sales so let me show you exactly what Kathy Wood thinks the Federal Reserve is getting wrong then we'll take a look at some of her other biggest Holdings based on this point of view here's a quick clip from her recent interview with Yahoo finance but now we're joined by someone who has her eyes on potential deflation that of course is Kathy Wood and you recently wrote an open letter to the FED where you warned about deflation the market after today's data is now more fully pricing and not just a 75 basis point increase at this upcoming meeting but the one after that as well do you think the FED should be done do you think they should even raise 75 basis points at this upcoming meeting or do you think they should stop here and give some time for their increases to make their way through the economy yes as we're thinking about this question we compare what chairman Powell is doing to what chairman volcker did in the late 70s early 80s when he was fighting an inflation problem that had been building for 15 years Vietnam War Great Society closing the gold window that was a real inflation problem that built up over 15 years this inflation problem has been 12 to 15 months by the time the FED started addressing it and we think it's much more a function of supply chain imbalances caused by covid and then again by Russia's invasion of Ukraine these are very very different circumstances so what the FED has done this time around is it has increased uh interest rates if they go another 75 basis points which is very likely on November 2nd they will have increased interest rates from 0.25 to 4 four percent and that's a 16-fold increase this is a real shock to the system and I do believe we will see the ramifications in many ways we're seeing housing shutting down uh and I think we're going to see a lot of other activities shutting down as well we're seeing lots of inventory overhangs and and even online sales are suffering uh Amazon just had its uh second prime day and it showed no increase which is really from a year year over year which is uh telling us that either units are down or prices are down so I think the CPI that we got today is a lagging indicator it always is a lagging indicator and we're seeing a lot of prices in the pipeline that are falling we believe we're in a recession and we believe this recession now will be sustained so Kathy would think that the Federal Reserve isn't fighting the recession but causing it and the depth of the recession really depend on how far the FED is willing to go that's because they're relying on lagging indicators to raise interest rates but not giving the economy enough time to adjust to them tell me who you agree with in the comments below do you agree with Michael burry that there's much more pain to come especially for stocks with big market caps and negative earnings or are you siding with Kathy Wood and think that the FED is causing more harm than good by crushing growth in almost every Market either way what I've been doing is grabbing Arc invest Holdings data and looking for Trends and changes over time so let me wrap up this episode by showing you Kathy Woods top Holdings that way if you agree with her you know what kind of growth companies to watch or if you agree with Michael burry you know which ones to avoid so here's a table of Arc invests biggest positions when you combine Kathy Woods six actively managed funds each row is one company the rows are ordered by the size of Kathy Woods position in that company and each position is colored by its change in size since Michael burry tweeted his warnings against Arkham invest positions colored in green grew relative to the rest of the funds and positions colored in blue shrank keep in mind that there are two ways for kathywood to increase the size of a position she can either buy more shares which is shown in the change in this first change in shares column or she can hold shares instead of selling them as they go up in price which is the second column showing the change in share price holding shares as they go up in price obviously grows the size of the position but it also adds in the risk of the stock going back down as the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates either way the green rows are the positions that Kathy Wood is currently growing now that we're clear on what all the columns in this table mean let me show you which of these positions Michael burry is specifically warning against wow only one third of Kathy Wood's top 24 positions don't fall under Michael burry's warning Tesla Zoom Roku coinbase teledoc Robin Hood ionis Pharmaceuticals and Nvidia are the only ones that don't make the list so maybe those are the rare few growth stocks worth paying attention to right now now the other 16 of Arc invest's top 24 stocks have at least a billion dollar market cap while losing over 100 million dollars per year by the way many of these are great companies making huge impacts around the world Shopify crispr Roblox Unity software the list of great companies goes on and on but just because they're great companies doesn't make them safe investments in the short term especially with the next fed meeting coming up soon but at least now you have some context on two very high profile investors with completely opposite views on where the market is heading next let me know in the comments below which side you're on and which stocks you're watching right now accordingly e like button and subscribing to the channel that lets me know to put out more research like this want to see what else Michael burry has been warning about check out this episode next or if you want to know which stocks I'm watching right now based on my own research this episode is for you
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