저자: Alex · 외국인
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AMD는 3분기 사전 실적에서 매출이 10억달러 이상 하회했고 클라이언트(PC) 부문 마진이 54%에서 42%로 하락했다. PC 시장은 2011년 이후 구조적으로 감소 중이며 2023년까지 15% 가까이 줄어들 수 있다. 다만 AMD는 PC·서버 점유율을 높이고 있고, 데이터센터 매출은 전년비 45% 성장했으며, 자일링스 인수가 장기적으로 성과를 낼 것으로 본다. 최종 판단은 유보적이다.
다듬은 글
about Advanced Micro Devices AMD it's down by five percent after it issued preliminary third quarter results rare downgrade today for AMD they came in well below its initial guidance Barclay says the growth story needs a pause that is more than one billion dollars below estimates AMD stock is in serious trouble demand for their processors is drying up fast and AMD expects to lose over a billion dollars in Revenue as a result and that's just for this one quarter we'll find out just how bad the damage is in a few weeks when they report their earnings but with the stock being down over 60 percent year-to-date and down around 40 percent in the last two months alone now is a great time to see if AMD is worth investing in or if their collapse has just begun your time is valuable so let's get right into it starting with amd's most recent earnings announcement at the start of October AMD announced their preliminary earnings results for the third quarter of 2022.
they're now expecting 5.6 billion dollars in revenue for the quarter which is a over a billion dollars less than they previously guided for what's interesting is that this billion dollar shortfall is all coming from just one place amd's client segment which is responsible for processors and Graphics chips for home PCS and laptops not only that but AMD also reported that this part of their business is becoming less profitable than they previously expected gross margins on these chips shrank from around 54 to 42 percent this can really only happen for two reasons supply and demand meaning that it either costs AMD more money to get their chips into consumers hands or they have to sell each chip for less than they used to or both and not surprisingly the answer this time is both but what may be surprising is exactly why it's easy to look at the past few years and assume that the pandemic pulled forward a lot of amd's sales after all millions of people used their stimulus checks to upgrade their desktops and laptops as they started working from home and spending more time online in general but that's just one piece of the puzzle at the same time that demand for these chips started to Skyrocket the pandemic also caused the global supply chain to grind to a halt offices sent people home stores were forced to close factories stopped producing a lot of consumer electronics and logistics companies had a hard time moving anything that actually did get made so what did every company selling these chips and the computers that they go into do when they saw these massive decreases in Supply and increases in demand they started to double and triple order every product they could while they still could not only that but they paid higher prices to get them since the cost of production and shipping increased dramatically during all the shutdowns these are the kinds of things eating into amd's margins today but these same companies have another problem now they're overstocked with the products that they just spent all that extra money to acquire while consumer demand is drying up the thing is demand for Consumer chips isn't going away because everybody just upgraded and it's not because because we're all feeling High inflation or a lack of stimulus checks the consumer PC market has actually been declining for years now this is super important to understand not just for AMD stock but also for companies like Intel and Nvidia the decline in global demand for personal computers really started all the way back in 2011.
if we look at the total unit shipments of PCS worldwide we can see that they peaked in 2011 at a little over 365 million units in 2019 that number was just 262 million over 100 million units lower so what caused this almost 30 percent decline well a few things first a lot of workloads and services moved to the cloud which eliminates at least some of the need to have a beefy computer at your fingertips second a lot of computing has gone Mobile today we do almost everything from our phones from investing in banking to watching TV listening to music and even playing games even a good chunk of our day jobs can be done from our our phones as a result the average amount of time people spend on mobile devices has increased by well over 400 percent from 45 minutes a day in 2011 to over four hours a day in 2021 by comparison the average desktop usage increased by just 10 minutes per day over that same 10-year period in addition to everything moving to either the cloud or to mobile devices there's a funny third problem that companies like AMD Intel and Nvidia will probably never recover from as their chips get better and better consumers can go longer and longer between upgrades these chips are getting so powerful that you can build or buy a computer and then literally ignore newer chips for years at a time if you're somebody who uses your computer mainly for checking email browsing the internet streaming video or chatting with others you can probably go almost a decade between upgrades at this point that's how good these chips are getting a study published by the international data Corporation shows that PC shipments are forecast to decline by 12 point eight percent in 2022 further contraction is also expected in 2023 as consumer demand has slowed education demand has largely been fulfilled and Enterprise demand gets pushed out due to worsening macroeconomic conditions the combined market for PCs and tablets is forecast to decline 2.6 percent in 2023 before returning to growth in 2024.
I'm actually surprised that the IDC expects the PC market to grow in 2024. in my opinion Computing will keep moving away from desktops and onto the cloud or onto our phones and as a result our computers will probably be good enough to handle whatever's left until something big changes with the internet like it moving to 3D in other words not anytime soon these are secular declines they're happening for industry-specific reasons that are not likely to change now on top of that add in inflation and a weak economy and you can see why demand is really drying up so if the best estimate save C Market is going to shrink by 15 percent through the end of 2023 and I personally think it's even going to be worse than that then there's your answer AMD is in serious trouble and the collapsing PC market will take them with it right well not exactly even though the PC market is declining AMD is still gaining market share in it year over year according to Tom's Hardware and Mercury research amd's revenue market share for processors increased by 0.7 percent in desktops so not a huge deal there but their market share is also up 12.1 percent in notebooks amd's market share also increased by 11.3 percent in servers bringing their total share of server Revenue up to almost 23 percent combine these increases give AMD a whopping 28 market share for x86 processors that number gets even higher if you add in their internet of things and semi-custom chips which I'll talk about more in a minute my point is that AMD is offset setting at least some of the declines in the PC market by capturing a bigger piece of this Pie as it shrinks and who are they capturing that market share from you guessed it Intel Intel has dominated the data center CPU market for decades but AMD has been slowly eating Intel's lunch when it comes to servers and data centers where they now have a 14 share one reason is because AMD can pack a ton of cores onto a single chip they expect their epic line of server processors to have up to 128 cores in 2023 these chips have much better specs than Intel's current Xeon chips which have around 40 cores and usually end up costing more than the AMD equivalent another key reason that AMD has been able to gain so much ground over the last few years is that Intel faced pretty substantial production delays caused by issues with their 10 nanometer process Intel's next Generation server processors called Sapphire Rapids were supposed to come out in 2021 but now they're planned for 2023 so they'll have to watch AMD release at least one or two more processors as Intel Xeon chips keep losing ground but AMD also operates in two other markets that Intel doesn't have a strong foothold in AMD has been making graphics cards since they acquired ATI back in 2006 Intel did just release a line of discrete graphics cards called their Arc gpus they're literally coming out right now so we'll have to wait a few quarters to see if they pick up any meaningful market share for now AMD currently has around a 17 share of the GPU market and Nvidia has around 78 percent of that market that leaves around four percent for Intel mostly because of their integrated Graphics chips AMD is also the dominant chip maker when it comes to gaming consoles providing the semi-custom CPUs and gpus for the PlayStation 4 PlayStation 5 steam deck Xbox series s and series X consoles it's not a stretch to think of this segment of amd's business will keep growing as supply chain issues keep going away and more game consoles get bought over the holidays the only consoles that AMD doesn't build chips for is the Nintendo switch the switch uses an arm processor which is the preferred architecture for mobile devices another area where AMD could see growing demand is inside cars AMD provides the embedded chips that drive the infotainment displays in the Tesla Model S and the model X both the ryzen and Radeon chips will also be found in Tesla's model 3 and model y's infotainment systems as well most of amd's embedded chip business is actually going to come from their acquisition of xilinx I want to spend a little time talking about this because it's one of the biggest Acquisitions in Market history it diluted amd's shareholders by something like 33 percent but it's maybe one of the most important Acquisitions in the semiconductor space as well so here's what you need to know this was an all stock deal where 35 billion dollars when it was announced in 2020 but it ended up being worth about 50 billion dollars thanks to amd's Rising stock price device at the time just for reference that's almost 10 times more than what AMD bot ATI for back in 2006.
xilinx is a leader in the development of field programmable gate arrays or fpgas field programmable means that you can change what the chip does after it's built as opposed to CPUs or gpus which are hardwired when they're manufactured xilinx has over a 60 market share for these kinds of chips which are useful across a wide variety of Industries today ranging from cloud computing and Communications to automotive and Aerospace here's the thing reprogrammable logic is becoming more and more appealing for applications that constantly update after a chip is made and installed for example let's think about machine learning where a model can go through many different changes and optimizations over time at Tesla's recent AI day they showed how their self-driving neural networks changed as they got retrained or as they removed certain features like when they got rid of Radars and all the data associated with them because fpgas can be reprogrammed and re-optimized after applications change they can perform anywhere from two to ten times better than a CPU for specific functions especially if that function can be highly parallelized that's where fpgas really shine in addition to being able to process multiple data frames at once they can run multiple processes on a single piece of data at the same time for example scanning one video frame for many different kinds of objects in parallel like road signs Lane markers hazards other cars and so on in addition to processing one frame at many different ways in parallel these chips can also do that for multiple frames at once for example frames coming in from multiple cameras every fraction of a second but reprogrammable chips aren't just useful in Edge Computing for sensor data they're also becoming more mainstream for data center applications since fpgas can be reconfigured with code one fpga can serve many different purposes inside the data center which removes the need for a wide variety of different application specific integrated circuits the same one chip could switch between many very different kinds of workloads such as machine learning or networking or security besides simplifying server architectures another big benefit of integrating these things into one CPU package is lower power consumption transferring data between different kinds of specialized chips takes a lot of power heat and power consumption are huge concerns for data centers as much as 40 percent of data center power consumption comes from cooling these kinds of systems so amd's AI enhanced xilinx chips could play a key role in increasing the power efficiency of their high performance chips by a factor of 30 over the next four years making them very attractive options in the data center Market which means they're going to keep eating into Intel's market share and now we've come full circle we have all the contacts we need to really understand amd's preliminary earnings results for the core order overall even after all this bad news amd's revenue is still up 29 year over year so just because it's in the same camp as stocks like Intel and Nvidia and tsmc doesn't mean it should be blindly falling with them this is a strong Growth Company and hopefully now you see why their Data Center business now makes up roughly a quarter of their revenue and it grew 45 percent year over year and eight percent quarter over quarter even in this horrible Market that's pretty insane growth I expect data centers to become their biggest business unit from now on their client revenue is down 40 percent year over year and over 50 percent quarter over quarter and we know that their margins for this segment are also going down no doubt this is going to be real trouble for AMD stock over the next few Quarters at the very least now roughly a quarter of their revenue also comes from gaming which includes the semi-custom chips that go into all the gaming consoles as well as their discrete graphics cards that we just talked about AMD Gaming revenue is flat for the quarter but it's still up 14 percent year over year and finally we have their embedded chips up just four percent from the last quarter and up a whopping fifteen hundred and fifty percent year over year thanks to their acquisition of xilinx which we spent a lot of time on so we'll have to see how that normalizes over the next few quarters but I expect this massive 50 billion dollar acquisition to pay off big time over the long run but there is one company that could crush AMD in almost every market and if you want to know how consider hitting the like button and subscribing to the channel that lets me know to share more research like this yo
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