저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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엔비디아는 H100 수요와 xAI 데이터센터 확장으로 AI 핵심 수혜주지만, 실적 서프라이즈 폭이 줄고 수율 문제로 마진 우려가 있음. 주가는 과거 급락 이력이 있어 변동성 주의. 반도체 섹터 전반은 부진하고 엔비디아만 홀로 강해 Cramer·Amy는 섹터 대비 상대강도 약화를 우려해 비중을 줄이는 중. 실적 발표를 앞두고 기대치가 높아 120달러 부근까지 조정 가능성 언급.
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and right now you musk still says that Jensen makes the best chips he's not it doesn't seem like it's very begrudging y you know you say like yeah Jensen's good um I me you know I mean Jensen was quoted as saying you know as far as I know there's only one person in the world who could do that and that being putting together in 122 days this Colossus that's what they actually call it on the supercomputer uh that's housed there one of the more interesting dichotomies within Tech is the software vers versus chips debate how do you want to be positioned and the chips look like a mess right now um first of all the the ratio of Nvidia to SMH is at an all-time high so as great as in Nvidia continues to act the rest of the group is fading hard Jim Kramer discusses nvidia's upcoming earnings highlighting concerns about smaller Revenue beats due to challenges like lower yields from current Generation ship despite this Nvidia remains critical in AI development with significant demand for its h100 gpus especially from Elon musk's AI Ventures and Rapid data center expansions he points out nvidia's outperformance compared to other semiconductor stocks as the broader sector struggles however Kramer warns investors about nvidia's history of sharp Corrections even after strong results urging caution given its high valuation lastly he notes mixed investor strategies with some trimming Nvidia Holdings due to tax concerns while the stock continues to thrive Kramer emphas izes nvidia's dominant role in AI but advises managing expectations in a challenging semiconductor environment what about uh Deutsche Banks point yesterday that uh Nvidia next week uh may not beat as much on Revenue as they normally do average beat on Revenue last 5 quarters $2 billion I I think that could be true you're still de dealing with the idea of a yield on on a Blackwell their current generation yield being you don't not all of them are done you you might make for every thousand maybe you have to throw away like 400 so the gross margin is not going to be what people want I don't think there going to be as many watch parties as there are for saquan Barkley whoa uh uh my understanding is this will be closed as soon as early next week and they're going to just keep buying those h100s he's you know again in only the way must can and the information did a very interesting story on this a few days ago I mean what they've done in Memphis in as short a time as possible to build this data center and to Network all of these h100s is nothing short of many say uh somewhat miraculous so much faster than any other company can build a data center it also may be one of the reasons why I know that I'm not looking for a big offside surprise Nvidia but the h100 is not the current that's not the most current u g is but but what's great h100 then h200 Blackwell maybe if you've already started with h100s you got to I don't know okay so what what Jensen would tell J wrong this CEO is that you they're all cumulative cuz they use software and it's not like it's not like a 46 and then you want to turn it back as a pennium they were you do the h100 works well the H2 they don't they don't depreciate right and Jensen mentions the greatness of working with musk on this self-driving um five straight quarters of triple digit earnings growth is the reason why Amy and myself and many people have clients with really big uh embedded uh tax liabilities here it's a really it's a really tough thing um we utilize custom indexing so that we can algorithmically tax loss Harvest against some of that position but to Amy's point the stock just continues to strengthen um they gave guidance for this quarter they're they're about to uh report judge they said uh 32 A5 billion so the prior consensus was 31.7 billion on data center revenue from my perspective if they can do the 32 and a half billion plus on data center revenue and not disappoint on raised guidance that they themselves just gave the last time they reported I think you're okay in the stock um but I want I want to remind people this stock even with good news has had a history of really short really sharp draw Downs uh that can shake people and as recently as this August September the stock was in a 24% correction a a bare Market um it didn't last long if you blinked you missed it but if you're in this name just be aware of that potential and it doesn't mean Nvidia is a good or a bad investment um it's just the nature of the stock not only does it infuriate people who missed it it also doesn't make it easy always to stick with it because of that that beta and uh you've got to accept that if you're going to be part of this trade going into an earnings report man if you if you needed another reminder of of just how influential Nvidia is and how it how much it's going to remain so in in the great AI buildout you look no further than David Faber's reporting of earlier today when musk's xai is Raising as much as $6 billion in New Capital post money Val of 50 plus billion what are they going to do with the money well they're going to buy more GP h100s 100,000 of them by the way uh for the new data center they have in in Memphis okay let's move on to the chips uh you chose Nvidia it's always hard to tell if people are going to love or hate kind of the leader in in any given space you're liking it today it is down about 4% this week it's tripled on the year it's also down 4% today why because there's nothing else out there you're going to do a d play on Micron you're going to do a relative valuation play on qcom they have the the only thing that exists and so while I hate the concentration I hate breath I'd rather wallow around in small cap value like it's 2002 if you're going to bother in chips just go for the 800 lb gorilla and go home it's Friday it's been a really interesting you know uh view of how semis have traded versus software for example the lad up the former down you you say that you want to rotate out of semis broadly can you be more specific on on why you think that and how broad yeah look I mean it's it's relative performance for us Scott that's where we draw the line and so we've seen uh most of the trend conditions in an equal weight uh relative performance on the semiconductor index for the Russell 1000 really with the exception of say Texas Instruments broadcom and Nvidia uh there's a lot of bad charts there that's everything from qualcom to microchip to um you know to Micron for that matter so uh Nvidia is kind of the exception to the rule and that always makes us nervous when one stock is swimming against the tide of the entire group forget the market but when it's when it's swimming against the tide of its own group um that's usually something that we try to avoid in in uh in Mass so uh we're a little bit more cautious on Nvidia probably than uh than you might otherwise expect given the chart I mean is is is one Tide though if if Nvidia delivers a blowout quarter is that enough in and of itself to raise all the other boats it might be but you know your your previous guest hit something uh uh Professor seagull hit something really important right it's priced it's priced for upside and so there are high expectations and that's usually a point particularly when you have deterioration in the group that you want to be careful I'm not I'm not overly bearish on Nvidia I just think it probably trades closer to 120 before we're all said and done from election day through today Nvidia is up 8% the SMH is up only 2% which sounds not so bad only up 2% but when you look at the fireworks that we've seen elsewhere it's a big lagered group now you have an index that is 2% below its 50-day um only 2% above its 200 day and within the SMH when you look at the names judge the median RSI for the group is 39 Nvidia is 54 the S&P is about 52 so the stocks are ice cold only 28% of SMH names are above their 50-day and the rest are in like little mini bear markets so that definitely um makes an impact on psychology people being a little bit Chooser when they go into Tech and I think trying to be positioned in areas where tariffs aren't so so much of a big threat international trade in general is not so much of an issue and that I think explains why we are where we are and uh it it's where PE people are putting to money money to work currently anywhere but uh uh semis and the performance of the hyperscalers are uneven uh or is uneven excuse me um they're obviously spending a lot of money with Nvidia uh Shares are up 16% in the past 3 months Amy you own Nvidia I do tell me your thoughts on this um you know we've owned it forever and um I keep trimming it and it's still the largest position in my portfolio it just keeps working and keeps working I'll probably trim it again we have a big issue with gains in the stock um our clients are very tax sensitive and so that becomes a big issue um but look I think this continues to work until they sort of eat through more and more of this backlog I think that's at some point in 2025 not exactly sure when it is um we'll talk a little bit about this new raise by um by musk's AI company but this your largest position now it's my largest position just be because of movement because of stop that because it keeps working so well but I've trimmed it multiple times this year Josh how you thinking about Nvidia going into the report next I think it's Wednesday in conclusion Jim Kramer highlights nvidia's critical role in the AI Revolution driven by strong demand for its h100 gpus and Rapid data center growth despite concerns about smaller Revenue beats and sector challenges while Nvidia outperforms its semiconductor peers Kramer cautions about its high valuation and history of sharp Corrections urging careful investment decisions as in investors navigate nvidia's sustained success and broader sector struggles questions remain about its ability to uplift the industry or continue excelling on its own with mixed strategies among investors the focus remains on nvidia's next steps in maintaining its leadership in AI can nvidia's dominance in AI offset the broader semiconductor sector struggles how do you balance nvidia's potential with its history of volatility and high valuation you're compared to larger companies
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