저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 배리가 13F에서 팔란티어·엔비디아 풋옵션 등 대규모 숏을 공개했으나, 실제 노출은 약 900만 달러 수준이라는 주장이 제기됨. 배리는 이후 자산운용사 청산을 발표하며 AI 기업 실적과 감가상각 연장(메타 등)의 적정성, AI 버블 가능성을 시사. 진행자들은 닷컴 버블과 달리 AI가 사라져도 구글은 수익이 나므로 비교에 동의하지 않으며, 현재는 버블 과열 단계는 아니라고 봄. 메타 보유 사실도 언급.
다듬은 글
Hey, welcome back to Two Super Guys Socks. I'm Dylan. And I'm Vinnie. And man, oh man, it's a wild week in Michael Bry world. Uh Dylan and I have been following Michael Bry's moves for a long time. We've done separate videos on like every 13F he's done. Uh when he was tweeting actively, we were talking about like anything that seemed interesting that he he tweeted about um or whatever you want to call it now.
Um but he he went on like an absolute tirade on Twitter or X if you will. And then he just like rage quit the game to give the punch line away here a little bit. But we're gonna we're gonna talk about the news here. All right. Yeah. Another one bites the dust, man. Yeah. [sighs and gasps] Yeah. It's going to be interesting.
I I I don't know, man. I feel like he can't stay away from the public eye forever. I I actually think I'm going to see him in like three months tweet something. So, yeah. Yeah. Well, I didn't realize he was back on Twitter actually until relatively recently, too. Um, but this is the thing that kind of really prompted everything here.
We did a separate video on this. This is his 13F filing. Came out quarterly. He put it out like a week and a half early, which it was interesting to me. Uh, I was kind of wondering what was going on there. That was not his typical pattern. Usually he put out on the very last day. And [snorts] of course like you know there there's two basically things here that got really picked up by the news media.
Uh this Palunteer put and Nvidia put. All right. Yeah. Yeah. The I mean and we had looked at that last uh week. If after the drops because after after the news came out there was some drops. It looked like prior to when he would have bought it, it would have been at about the same price after the drop.
Yeah. As to you know where it was. Exactly. And then, you know, of course, it's not a perfect science, particularly when you're doing options on these 13F filings. All it does is give you the maximum notional value of how many shares it controls here. So, this looks like it's a $912 million position and almost a $200 million position.
So, Michael Bur having control over like a billion dollar bet is the way this could be looked at if you really don't know what you're talking about. Yeah. Right. Yeah. So, this is what you saw as far as headlines. Oh, $1.4 billion short bet. like the the man from the big short himself, Michael Bur is now shorting the AI bubble.
You know, we've been talking about the AI bubble for like a month now. And then finally, he's thinking it's time to start betting heavily against the way this is interpreted when it first came out. All right. Of course, there was like a flurry of of Bur responses here. This is one of them. I am not 5 foot6.
Nothing wrong with that. Okay. Just, you know, I'm just trying to say he's not really short is is his point here. Uh but he has to do it in the Michael Bur way, of course. Yeah. Okay. I was like, where is this going? Okay, that makes sense. He is very literal. Yeah. Yeah, he he he's an interesting character.
Um, so this one he actually has pinned, but uh I thought this is interesting where basically saying sometimes we see bubble, sometimes there's something to do about it having crisis. Sometimes the only winning move is to not play the game. All right. So that's what he's just saying. He's just he, you know, I I don't know.
I forget what character it is, but in like Peanuts or something where they pick up the ball and just leave and like they're not playing the game anymore. That that's kind of what I thought he referencing. That's pretty much what like Charlie Munger said with Tesla, right? Where he's like, "I won't bet in it.
I won't short against it. It's just not worth the play because there's just too much risk and there's too much possibly manipulation." So, yeah, I get it. It makes sense. Yeah. Yeah. Just stay away. Like, if you don't know, stay away. Now, he did have some really interesting [snorts] stuff to say. This this is really pertinent because like, you know, Dylan and I both are are on M uh Meta Mudo.
Muda Meta and Google are two of our larger holdings personally, right? Yes. Uh I actually just bought more of Meta. I think it was around like 630 or 640. Yeah, I know. And they absolutely tanked after most of the earnings. What he's calling out here is basically the uh the kind of depreciation timeline for their their server investments.
Saying how they've been lengthening it over time from 2020 to 2025. They're now going from say Meta from three years depreciating the entire cost of their server infrastructure to now five and a half years for going into next year. So you see as a result of that they're not recognizing the full cost depreciation during the actual useful life of the item.
Um therefore they're overstating the earnings by in meta's case by 20%. What are your thoughts on this? Um I honestly would like to see Mark Zuckerberg respond um because I I I don't know enough about this. I think that that would have been seen during earnings calls. Like I think I feel like we would have heard about this sooner.
Um but you I also don't know this is a whole new realm like in 2020 versus data centers when we're using now versus 2020. It's not even close. Like this is a whole new world like the last two years because of AI. Yeah. Yeah. I think it's definitely interesting. Certainly the fact that they're they're they're lengthening this useful time period out here.
Now my my question this is really something you would have to have answered by like an AI like engineer. um or even like a kind of a nonAI like just database engineer I would think is that I understand for the cutting edge Nvidia chips right like two to three years is pretty much like the product cycle for when they come out with brand new ones however that doesn't mean that the older kind of legacy nodes you know one generation old is completely useless right so even if we go out to five and a half years
that's now just like two generations effectively of of these products um they still may have a very useful life I don't think they need the necessary the most cutting edge you know chips from Nvidia to be powering their reals recommendation angle, you know, al algorithm. Yes, I understand they may be using it for that.
Um, but it can recommend to me things that um, you know, I interact with on a regular basis pretty accurately, probably without being the most cutting edge technology there. Right. Yeah. I will say so um, Jensen, the CEO of Nvidia had a comment about this, not not to this directly, but it was about AMD's chips versus Nvidia's.
And granted, you know, this is he's selling chips here, so take what I'm about to say with a giant grain of salt. But he was essentially saying you can make AMD's chips free, but the compute technology being superior is really where people get their return on investment. So according to him, granted, he sells chips.
So yeah, we got to take that in mind. But the just the level of compute is more important because we're all we're we're all kind of at a power maximum consumption that we can do. So everyone has you know 1 2 3 kilowatt whatever it was they can't go above it or gigawatts. So the compute is really where you know the technology takes over.
So yeah I mean chips I I I think it is interesting to watch this uh as it evolves. So really really important particularly for people that are investing in these mega cap tech companies like we are. Um, but I don't necessarily say just because they're extending it that means that they're artificially propping up their earnings.
It's certainly something to keep an eye on and be suspicious of, but I'd love to hear the thoughts of someone that's a really, you know, database engineer here, how useful last generation chips really are. Yeah. Um, and then of course he actually went out and tweeted some of these other things were interesting.
So talking about just like um the decelerating growth amongst cloud, that's that's what this whole chart here is about. Um and that despite that fact that they're actually putting their capex at like a all-time high uh even uh you know greater than what we saw as far as the run-up to the um uh 2000 bubble here as far as percentage of uh total market um yeah tech capex 5-year growth rate just saying that we're spending a lot of money and you know are we necessarily getting return on investment because the growth rate for cloud has gone down so much and then of course you tweeted this this bubble image that uh you know Dylan and I have talked before about the interconnectedness of of the AI like sphere right now.
Okay. I did not realize cloud segment had actually decreased that much. That's pretty wild. Well, yeah, it makes sense, right? You can't grow in, you know, at 50% per year infinitely, right? Because you end up taking over the entire world. It has to decelerate over time. So, like that's not earthshattering to me in any way, shape, or form.
It's also still pretty high. It certainly makes me wonder like are they getting a good return on investment, which is something they're recording. I want to say you know Google recently is recording 20% return on investment capital for the last like several years like uh at least right now they're showing positive ROI and it makes sense and Meta has talked about how effective their algorithm been at you know getting customer conversions for for for their their advertising clients saying they are getting a good return on investment right so yeah they have data points to say yeah it's actually probably might be still worth it
um this is another funny one so you know Alex Karp the CEO of Palanteer which was you know the main position that he had taken against here Yeah, he came out as soon as he called him uh batshit crazy. Did you see that highlight? I did. It's kind of funny because I don't know the hair on um Alex Carpier says like I don't know if I can entirely trust this guy's assessment of the world.
Maybe that's just me. Uh you know, bald middle-aged man. Um but uh but very difficult to stop back here saying that like you know he's like you have this leading edge like AI company and you couldn't dissect my 13F basically. I thought it was pretty interesting. That is I mean that's pretty solid. He's Yeah.
Yeah. The the leverage bet is not the same. Also, it's very possible he was also out of this trade during this entire time which is really funny. He could have been out well before this. If he is or if he officially said he was, he did have um a tweet which I don't think I included unfortunately. Um, but he did say in reality it was about a $9 million position and it expires like the beginning of 2027 u that he had bought these puts for it because he's like I bought these thingies for $267 per thingy uh and they expire in 2027 and they give me right to sell paler shares I think it was like $50 strike price or something like that.
Yeah. Um but yeah u like in reality it was a $9 million bet not not a $900 million bet as the 13F would have you believe. Um this was a interesting thing talking about the over building of capacity related to telecom back in the dotcom bubble here. Um yeah. Yeah. He's talking about how just basically less than 5% of US telecom's capacity was in use in 2002.
Just saying that they had massively massively overbuilt. I thought that was kind of interesting. Um and then wholesale telecom prices fell by more than 70% from the year 2001 2002. uh many of the companies which long before had been valued at huge premiums to their invested capital now um sought protection from creditors right so saying we may massively overbuild the AI infrastructure and that all of a sudden Google is be instead of being antitrust it's going to be going to uh the federal government going like yo please sir we need some money otherwise the entire internet is going to collapse like that that that that's what he's trying to hint at here I think which is a little bit extreme
which I do disagree with because this is this is where this the biggest difference between now and the.com bubble is if you completely eliminate AI, Google still makes billions upon billions, you know, of dollars. So that's I just I did I disagree with this one heavily. Yeah. Yeah. Although like you know, you got to be skeptical.
I I I just I I definitely think we're not anywhere near comb bubble prof, right? So many people are calling for bubble and all that sort of stuff. It's the most obvious bubble of all time. I've seen people saying that sort of thing. To me, to me, what that really says is that the the market is still in check.
There's enough people that are very suspicious of it that it hasn't gone full exuberance. Like, you know, I haven't talked talked to someone that's a dog walker yet that's talked about how they've maxed out their credit cards and put it all into, you know, Palunteer stock, whereas that that's happened in the past.
Yeah, that's a bubble. I will say the the quantum bubble has absolutely popped a decent amount because those stocks are down like 70% now. So, nice. Nice. You did call that, man. Um, and then, you know, little uh nod here back to the the big short movie, but me then, me now. Oh well, it worked out. It will work out.
So, he's just trying to be a little optimistic there. But with uh that note, this is as of this week, he dregistered his signed capital asset management um and sent out this letter to investors saying that it's a heavy heart. I will liquidate the funds, return the capital, but for a small audit tax hold back by this uh year's end.
estimation of value of securities is not now and has not been for some time in sync with the markets. So he's just saying like he doesn't understand the market right now. Therefore, he doesn't want to play this game. So he's taking this ball. Respectable. Yeah, respectable. It is. It is indeed. Uh I don't know, you know, the breakdown of how much of the money he was managing was, you know, outside money versus his own and his families.
But you know what he's he's saying is that they just can't find. I think Buffett did this at one point in time and then it's kind of funny took off after this. Um but uh heartfelt thanks also with apologies. I wish you well in your future investments. And then he does suggest this other gentleman um Phil at Palm Curion Capital um that uh investors should reach out to.
So hey man, I guess he gave us another 13F worth filing. We'll have to look at this Palm Curion Capital from now on. Um Phil is tremendous young talent, Phil investment, and most prestigious thinker I have ever encountered which is quite a compliment from a guy like Uncle Bur. Yeah. Um, yeah. Yeah, I think he is purely doing this so he doesn't have to file 13Fs.
I don't think he's out of the game at all. I think he's tired of the scrutiny and he doesn't like being in the public eye because after his 2008 short, he was very much in the public eye and you know, every time he tweets there's 100,000 retweets what I said. So, I don't think he enjoys that. I think that that's more of this is I think if the market tanks here, there's going to be a tweet that like I called it showing his account or something.
He just that it just wasn't in a 13F. Yeah, I just put this one particular slide here uh just to make sure I I called out Bry so that way if he gets really really angry and sees this video, he'll reach out to us and we can maybe have him on for an interview. Yeah, we're totally qualified for that. 100%.
Absolutely. Yeah. Hey, uh, you know, he remember he did train as a physician, so like, uh, we have some other stuff we can talk about medicine in general. That's it. That's all we got. Yeah, that that'd be pretty cool. Come on, Barry. Let's do it, man. Exactly. Email down below. Have you checked her email?
Yeah, occasionally. A lot of like crypto things in there. Yeah, I stopped. All right, guys. Let us know what you think.
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