저자: 미주 · 한국인
요약 보기
미국 10년물 금리는 피보나치 조정 구간에서 1.4% 부근까지 하락 가능하다고 봄. 고용·인프라 지연 등으로 하락 요인을 설명하나, CPI 등 인플레이션이 높아 장기적으로는 금리가 2.2% 이상으로 상승할 것으로 전망. 나스닥·S&P500은 금리와 역상관이라 금리 하락에도 크게 오르지 못해 시장이 불안정하다고 진단. 레버리지 상품은 거래량 감소로 일부 익절 후 현금 비중 확대를 권고. 장기적으로 금리 상승을 보고 TMV 계열 상품을 분할 매수 중이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Miju Dal, a lover of US stocks. For example, the 10-year Treasury yield continues to fall significantly, right? So, I really couldn't help but bring this up. I think we are currently in a Fibonacci retracement turn. If it goes down, I expect it to drop to 1.4. The reason it was bound to fall is that there was high demand for the 10-year bond yield, as the bidding environment was favorable.
If you look at it now, it actually closed at 1.4, but it is falling further. Have you thought about why it is falling? First, negotiations on infrastructure projects continue to be stalled. Usually, when infrastructure projects are passed, there is a lot of concrete in the market, right? But interest rates are bound to rise.
Yes, that is the second reason. Looking at the economic indicators, the employment sector reported 150,000 to 160,000 jobs, which came out a bit lower than predicted. On the other hand, there are many job postings. So, what does this mean? It means that while hiring is being halted, there are many job postings, which implies that the current favorable employment rate is not good.
In other words, tapering is not yet... It seems the market thinks it is too early. Right, there are reasons like this as well. And if we look at the economic indicators now, exports have increased, but imports have decreased compared to before, correct? Therefore, looking at this alone, how do we think about it?
It shows that the supply shortages and product shortages that the Fed has been continuously concerned about have been resolved to some extent. The fact that exports are increasing while imports are decreasing means that factories are gradually restarting operations, and it seems they believe that once supply chain issues are resolved, inflation will naturally be resolved.
So, if you look at the trade balance, it has decreased significantly compared to before. This shows that the economy is continuing to normalize. And what is the most important thing this time? Among the economic indicators, what you should be watching most closely today is, of course, the Consumer Price Index.
The CPI was previously recorded at 4.22, but the current forecast is 4.7. So, if it comes out lower, the 10-year Treasury yield will likely go down. Yes, the 10-year yield will inevitably fall further. And this is called the core inflation rate; what this is is food... You can view this as a rise in fuel costs excluding energy.
That is why we need to look at this carefully. Let's take a look at this by clicking. If you look at it now, it would be types 1 or 2, right? It's roughly a schedule. Then, it would be the highest figure since around 1992 or 1993, or rather, since 2013. So, looking only at this, the market doesn't seem to be shocked even if inflation comes out high.
Then, matching what the Fed said, inflation is temporary—yes, that seems to be the prevailing view. So, if we look at the 10-year yield now, if the chart returns to normal with the previous period, a rise in interest rates is inevitable. Yes, so if you think slowly and take a long-term view, interest rates are bound to go up.
And regarding the product I explained earlier— I just explained the TMV product to you and set it up for you. So, looking at it from a long-term perspective, I think this product isn't bad, so I am buying it little by little in installments. However, this is just my personal opinion, so please take it as a reference only.
Economically speaking, if you look at it right now, holding it like this wouldn't be a bad idea, would it? And some of you subscribers asked if this is exactly the same as SQ Cake. Yes, since this is a Lunch MV product, you don't know what the difference is. That isn't a secondary account either. Yes, and since it's a T MV product, is n't it essentially the same as ST Qura?
A subscriber asked that question in Part 1, so I've brought it here now. If you look at the Jetty MV product now, you could see money simultaneously with tapering because interest rates were rising. But what happens to S Cake and Q? Take it with you. Even if tapering is 1, it was used, so it went up.
I heard a lesson about this again last time. As long as you give the market some time to act, stock prices went up even with tapering. The SMP 500 consistently trended upward. Therefore, regarding these kinds of products, you should view them from a short-term perspective. You might be thinking, " What is that?
What does that mean?" Yes, so going back to talking about the T MV product, many experts are currently betting on rising interest rates. Well, Michael Murray is also betting on rising interest rates right now. So, long... If you invest in this product with a focus on breathing, I believe you will ultimately be able to make money.
Let me explain the 10-year bond market regulations again. Although the 10-year bond yield continues to fall, in my view, it is destined to rise. Looking at the current situation, I think the 10-year yield will rise to at least 2.2%, or within 2 points. So, even though the 10-year yield has fallen like this, the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and SMP 5 Bale haven't been doing very well.
Usually, the market should be rising, but let's take a look at the 5-minute chart. If we look at the temperature chart, it hasn't been very good. I will show you this along with the fever points. If you look now, the SMP 500 has broken through the mountain and is falling. Yes, so it wasn't good. And if we look at the Nasdaq, it has rebounded somewhat.
The Nasdaq, after using it, has managed to rebound. Anyway, it has an inverse relationship with interest rates, so although it moved in that direction to some extent, it could n't rise significantly. And if we look at the User's Index as well, the Dow front seems to be going down further. Yes, so looking at these aspects, even if interest rates rise...
The fact that stock prices have n't risen much despite interest rates dropping indicates that the market is somewhat unstable. Yes, as I have heard the explanation, the consumer price index and other figures are being announced today. Since the stock market could fluctuate again depending on these figures, I would appreciate it if you would keep these indicators in mind.
Also, I suddenly decided to add to this video. I set inflation at 5%, and I also include the water consumption rate at 3.8%. Since this is for processed foods, it counts water consumption excluding energy. However, even this is rising. Because it is food, you need to account for the base effect regarding energy consumption; it is still on the high side to be viewed simply as a base effect.
Therefore, the market situation is not good. Furthermore, the RPC (Renewable Portfolio Control) figure will likely be mentioned. This is the water consumption rate that is frequently referenced in FM3. Therefore, tapering will definitely be discussed at the FMC meeting. I think I can tell from the mentions.
From my perspective, while tapering must begin next year, I am sharing my personal thoughts on whether we might be able to control this inflation. So, I hope you all make sure to refer to this data. Please do your best and keep this in mind when investing. As I explain every time, now is not the time for stock investing; I recommend gradually increasing your holdings.
Yes, so although you have only heard about the negative aspects, all indicators are good right now. The " Smart the Money" trend continues to widen. Looking at the SMP 500d and Earnings Per Share, what does that mean? It means the company is consistently making good money. What that implies is that even if prices rise, if companies continue to grow, inflation can be tolerated to some extent.
Also, regarding the Price Momentum Oscillator that I explained last time, if you look at this alone, when the yellow line crosses the red line and goes up, the stock price went up. If you look now, it carried the price up at this point, and it carried it up again at this point. And when the yellow line is below the previous red line, it went down again.
So, what I mean is that since the TRS Momentum Oscillator is trying to go above the red line, it is not bad in terms of its indicators. Yes, so all indicators look fine right now. Whether it's the Morning Sudden or the SMP 502, it does n't look good on a 5-minute chart, but it looks fine on a full-length chart.
To show you the chart, looking at just the chart, it isn't bad. That's because it is currently rising while holding onto the P line. If you look at the Dow, it is also rising while holding onto the P line. Then, if you look at the Nasdaq, the index is also rising. So, all the indicators are not bad.
Therefore, I am not viewing it too pessimistically, but in the current situation, too much money has been released. Let me show you the commodity prices. Yes, corn is also continuously rising, right? This is corn, and this is corn futures. The fact that prices are rising in that area shows that inflation is continuing.
And copper prices are also continuously rising. Commodity prices are not falling. And although the number has found some stability, it is still on the high side. Yes, it is still on the high side, even though it is falling a bit. Let me show you how much it has risen over the past few months. If you look at yesterday's inflation, ah, how much has it risen compared to before?
Ah, that means it has risen 150%. Yes, you saw that. Therefore, if commodity prices rise like this, inflation continues. Then, naturally, the economic situation is not good. Yes, the Fed's interest rate hike is inevitable. There isn't any, and tapering is inevitable. So, looking at the current market situation, I hope you don't get too carried away or view it too pessimistically.
Even though things have been difficult for a while, the Nasdaq has continued to perform, and the SMP 500 has also been trending upwards. So, as long as you have that faith, I hope you continue to look at the market situation positively. Also, regarding leveraged products, I recommend a Z-frame pattern.
Right now, looking at the chart flow, leveraged products aren't particularly bad or good. Let me show you more about the skin points. If you look at the PO pointer, it's not bad, right? It is rising while supporting the Z-line, and if it suggests the 51 line and goes up, it isn't bad. However, if it doesn't break before 51, then the probability is high, depending on the circumstances.
So, let's load the 5-minute chart. Looking at the parent chart , the flow isn't that good right now. It went up, supported the point, and then ultimately came down to S-won. Usually, this isn't good. If you look at yesterday, the S-lines supported each other and went back up until B-won. So... The next day wasn't bad either, right?
Yes. That is why the fact that it has gone down like this isn't exactly a good signal. Yes. So, you have heard the explanation regarding that point. And the important thing right now is that the trading volume is gradually decreasing due to leverage. You understand what I mean, right? Yes. In leveraged products, if the trading volume decreases in tandem, I think there is no solution.
So, I recommend taking a little less profit from these leveraged products. And let's look at EXO Excel as well. In a situation where we don't know how the market will go, in the case of EXO Excel, I hope you all make some profit and don't get too greedy. The trading volume is also decreasing little by little on this one.
It is better than my fn fuel. Anyway, since semiconductor stocks have been coming in continuously until now, that aspect is undeniable, but if we look at EXO Excel now, I will show you this as a fever point as well. Yes, if we look now... Anyway, it was selected. Looking at the chart, it isn't bad. 51 is supporting each other and going up.
If we look at the 5-minute chart, it supported the p and went up, but then went back down. In the end, it entered at the very end of the window, and it is still a bit at the bottom. So, if I were to explain something you might not know right now, well, regarding these leveraged products, I’m sending you a little bit of advice.
So, going back to talking about my XXL again, well, it’s not bad as a first target, and holding onto it isn’t bad either. However, I don’t know if the Consumer Price Index is good or bad today. But I suppose inflation is temporary. Nevertheless, regarding these leveraged products, if you have made a small profit, you have realized it, so I suggest you cut back and increase your cash holdings.
I want to emphasize that point once again. Yesterday was the day of the video I prepared today. So, today I told you to reduce leveraged products and keep securing cash, but I didn't say anything too negative. I am thinking positively about the US stock market. So, if a cheap offer comes up, I will fully use that cash to structure my portfolio with these TF products, and if a company I want appears cheap, I intend to buy that company as well.
So, if you liked today's video, please make sure to subscribe and like. Then, see you next time. Goodbye.
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