저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 각국 정부·중앙은행이 부채 부담으로 계속 돈을 찍을 수밖에 없고, 실질 인플레이션은 공식 발표보다 높은 7~12%라고 주장한다. 금 가격은 현재 수준보다 훨씬 높은 $100,000/oz가 합리적이라고 본다. 명목금리가 실질 인플레이션에 못 미쳐 실질금리가 마이너스이고, 정부 이자 부담이 연 1조 달러를 넘어 적자 축소가 불가능하다고 한다. 주식은 채권보다 더 많이 잃을 것이라며 분산투자(현금·채권·주식·귀금속·부동산)를 권하고, 대형 디플레이션성 위기 이전에 매도하는 것이 낫다고 말한다. 다만 본인은 주식을 지금 당장 파는 것이 옳은지에 대해선 단정하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
If you look at the world, you have to sit and s say to yourself, I don't know. I don't know whether they will really follow through and print money like crazy like they will have they will be forced to do. It's not a choice they will be forced to do. And what are the consequences for that reason? I own precious metals.
Will precious metals go and make a new high right now? I don't know. But if I look at Mr. Trump and his administration and some of the idiots that are surrounding him, then I think that gold should be at $100,000 already. Global monetary systems are rapidly approaching an unprecedented crisis as central banks destabilize world currencies through continuous interventions.
Aggressive money printing and reckless government spending continue to erode genuine purchasing power on an international scale. Mark Faber, a distinguished Swiss investor, publisher, and veteran financial analyst, contends that Western monetary authorities will be forced into relentless money printing out of absolute necessity rather than choice.
This deliberate currency debasement renders fiat money fundamentally worthless, compelling prudent investors to seek shelter in tangible hard assets like gold and silver. Official government statistics aggressively understate economic reality, concealing true cost of living inflation rates that actually rage between 7% and 12%.
With interest rates held well below real inflation, price increases will accelerate rapidly while interest obligations surpass $1 trillion annually. Considering this severe political and fiscal mismanagement, Faber predicts that gold should realistically be priced at $100,000 per ounce as currency destruction unfold.
Now the problem is of course and this is very important to understand when you print money in theory you can keep uh stock prices up because uh there are no alternatives when you print money really in earnest uh money becomes worseless. So people jump into some assets you know [clears throat] that tend to appreciate through the money printing usually in gold or in silver or sometimes in real estate and sometimes in stocks.
But money printing can lift asset prices in nominal terms. Nominal then then we have to measure real. Real is inflation adjusted. But the government, they cheat with the figures they publish about inflation. Inflation that I'm prepared to vouch for it for nobody of your viewers is inflation 3 or 4%.
Inflation, the cost of living increases is running at between 7 and 12%. depending do they have children and where they live and and then but is not three or 4%. So when the 10 years bond yield or the fed fund rate is below 5% essentially interest rates are negative and when interest rates are negative in real terms inflation adjusted terms it's promoting inflation and so inflation will accelerate.
The government is an agency of cheaters. They lie and cheat about everything. And in my view, their problem, of course, they will not say it's a problem because they don't want to tell the truth to the public. The problem is that the governments in western democracies have borrowed money in order to keep up the standards of living of people and of the government officials and so forth and so on and keep the corruption going.
And therefore the government debt as a percent of the economy is now very substantial. And this government debt carries interest rates. Okay. And if interest rates go up, the debt payments on the government debt, the interest payments go up. And it's all in the US, it's already over $1 trillion a year.
It's going to be the largest expenditures by far of the government in future. And so the deficit cannot go down. actually say the deficit is so large and it will go up and it will actually force more money printing. I mean quite frankly the government will never tell you this but the situation is actually hopeless hopeless as a private citizen with some wealths and so forth.
My grandparents used to say you can put your money on a bank deposit. No, that is no good because the money loses its value. You have to have a money that keeps its value. I would say precious metals will help you a little bit. I think that more money printing is inevitable inevitable. When the stock market will be down 10 20% they'll print money because they the rich people don't like to see the stock holdings down 20%.
The portfolio is down 20%. And Trump is a typical stock market person. Actually, he has some money because inflation and money printing bailed him out. For the last 70 years since he entered business, uh the family of Trump, his real estate holdings and whatever he had was bailed out repeatedly, repeatedly.
Kevin Worsh is a very well educated person economically speaking. He's read the classical economist. He's well aware of money printing is well aware of economic complexities and relationships and so forth and so on. That is one side of him. Now there's another side of him. He's in government and he will do what his body, Mr.
Trump, tells him to do, namely keep interest rates artificially low. He may not cut interest rates, but uh the Fed should actually have increased interest rates and they didn't. So that tells you something. He shouldn't have cut in October 2024 because if you look at the bond market since October 2024, bond prices have gone down.
In other words, long-term interest rates have gone up. This you can say thank you to the Fed. You can also say thank you to the Fed because had they not cut rates at the time probably the US would be in recession. In my view, it's already in recession, but it doesn't show up in the stock market yet.
Western democracies remain trapped in an inescapable debt spiral driven by decades of artificial economic stimulus and fiscal irresponsibility. Sovereign debt obligations now generate crippling interest costs that outpace government revenues, making deficit reduction mathematically impossible. To prevent widespread financial panics, central banks will attempt to backs stop equity markets by injecting massive liquidity at the slightest market dip.
However, these short-term monetary fixes will fail to resolve the underlying structural collapse. Core economic indicators signal that a severe recession is already taking hold beneath artificially inflated asset prices. As emergency rate cuts push long-term yields higher, systemic risk will escalate sharply.
Projections indicate that an unstoppable global debt crisis will trigger widespread severe defaults, completely wiping out market participants relying on central bank safety nets. Now, let's get back to the interview. My view is that uh an investor in absence of knowing how crazy the world is going to become in the next few years.
I mean, people are unbelievably con complacent about the possibility of a major war. I think we're very close to it. I'm not predicting that it will happen, but it could happen. And all these things combined, they lead me to believe the best is to be diversified. own some cash and bonds and own some stocks and own some precious metals and own some real estate.
Then we have to decide where and ideally we diversify some in Latin America and some in the US. I don't have in the US but some in Europe and some in Asia and so forth. And the bond idea is this on bonds say on 10 years I now get say more than 4%. And uh I think that in stocks uh looking at at stocks as I would uh consider the S&P 500 as a benchmark.
I think in stocks you will lose more money than in bonds. I'm sad to say I don't think that people should look at making money now. They should look at how do I lose the least money considering the quality of government officials and criminals that run central banks. How do I lose the least money? Is not that the government has victoriously evicted the mafia.
The government has become the mafia. [clears throat] But that is what has happened in the world. If you being from the nation of geniuses can find a way to eliminate all the debt in the world without causing any damage then I would say yes there is a way. Unfortunately the elimination of debts is not going to happen under normal circumstances.
It has to happen in a crisis where people simply can't pay and governments can't pay. But a debt crisis in my opinion is inevitable. But I would have told you the same 5 years ago. Do you understand? With money printing you can postpone things. But in my view now we at the stage where events will accelerate and the I wouldn't bet that you can buy say stocks and sell them before the before the hits the fan.
I I'd be very careful about that view. I think that it is better to sell early. The only problem I can see as an individual or as a wealth manager is once you sell assets, what do you do with your money? Because the banks are not that safe either. I own banks and so forth and some banks are cheap relative to the rest of the market.
But I'm as as a depositor, if the system breaks, the banks are also gone. So the one thing that you can keep probably is your gold but then the government can come and say emergency you have to give the money the gold back to the government and your bitcoins as well as whatever. I mean I saw a massive selling wave in the crash in 87.
And I remember very well and I mean people don't talk about this but the fact is simply the stock market went down 21% in one day. In one day can you imagine what would happen if the stock market went 21% after a 5% drop Mr. Bessant and Mr. Walsh and Mr. Trump, they would step in and print money like crazy and buy up everything and support the market.
It may not work. It may not work. If it doesn't work, they'll have to print more money. That's why I say things will accelerate very soon. You have to ask Mr. President Trump. He knows everything better than anybody else in the world. Many things can happen but one thing I'm quite sure about is that a lot of people in a year's time will have lost a lot of money lost a lot of money because I I used to run two American brokerage firms in Hong Kong and I saw the speculator at the time we didn't have internet and we didn't even have fax machines.
They came at night to gamble on gold and silver and copper and oil and anything, you know, that anything that moved, they gambled in, but they came in at night. We had a visitors gallery at night so people could come and and they brought up their girls that they bought out of nightclubs and so gambled there.
Anyway, of all the speculators, they called in from Indonesia, they called in from Brunai, from everywhere in Asia because I had built a book of lots of clients. None of them made money of these day traders. Not one. And when the crash occurred in January 1980 when silver and gold collapsed from the peak, I've seen people cry.
And same in D87 crash, they lost everything. Everything. They had some savings. They lost the whole family. I mean, is a tragic experience. I can tell you. Go to Korea already. Now, lots of people have lost everything. Navigating the unfolding financial realignment demands transitioning away from chasing speculative market returns toward aggressive capital preservation strategies.
Historical market cycles clearly demonstrate that short-term day trading and excessive leverage lead to complete financial ruin during sudden panics, echoing the catastrophic market shocks of 1980 and 1987. When severe market crashes occur, central bank interventions will hyperinflate fiat currencies, leaving traditional bank deposits highly vulnerable and cash balances worthless.
Concentrating assets exclusively in paper holdings or domestic real estate exposes investors to extreme systemic dangers. Achieving genuine portfolio resilience requires broad asset class and international geographic diversification, distributing wealth across physical precious metals, global real estate, cash, and defensive international equities across Asia, Europe, and Latin America.
Predictions indicate that a massive wave of unprepared investors will suffer catastrophic financial losses over the next 12 months as deep debt fractures open across the global economy. Furthermore, desperate government authorities facing mounting insolveny may impose emergency gold confiscations or strict digital asset controls.
Prudent investors must focus on minimizing potential losses and securing physical gold to weather an impending global debt collapse. .
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