Michael Burry SOLD His Stocks In Portfolio | Biggest Market Crash Is Coming (Stock Market Bubble)

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마이클 베리의 2021년 3분기 13F 공시를 바탕으로 그가 포트폴리오를 축소하고 현금을 늘리고 있어 시장 대폭락을 대비하는 것으로 해석한다. 포트폴리오 변화: 운용자산이 약 4,100만 달러로 줄었고 보유 종목도 6개뿐이라 평소 13~14개 포지션과 대비된다. CVS는 2021년 1분기에 매수해 계속 보유 중이며, 록히드마틴도 약 2.5~2.7% 신규 매수한 것으로 언급된다. 매도 종목: 디스커버리, 골든오션, 선코크, 스코르피오, 글로벌 성장주 등을 100% 매도해 대형 포지션을 정리했다. 현금 비중은 50% 이상으로 추정된다. 베리의 경고 근거: 트위터에서 테슬라 등을 버블로 지적하며 매도를 주장했다. S&P500 명목 PER 26, 실러 CAPE 39를 제시하고, 2000년(18)·2008년(58) 등 과거 고점과 비교했다. 현재 밸류에이션은 1990년대보다 높다고 본다. 진행자 반론: 구글·페이스북·애플·마이크로소프트 등 주요 기업은 실제 이익이 성장하고 시가총액 수조 달러에 시장 지배력이 있어 닷컴버블과 다르다고 본다. 반면 인플레이션, 공급망 문제, 미중 긴장 등 리스크는 계속 존재한다고 강조한다. 결론적 시각: 정확한 폭락 시점은 예측 불가하지만 사이클 후반부라는 점은 인지해야 하며, 필 타운(약 35% 현금), 워런 버핏(1,400억 달러 이상 현금) 등 유명 투자자들도 현금을 쌓고 있다고 언급한다. 시청자에게 현금·매도·보유 계획을 묻는 것으로 마무리한다.

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01. hello everyone welcome to just invest today man and today we're talking about michael bury's 13f filing his stock market portfolio update for q3 man what is michael berry doing what is going on man is michael very expecting a crash man he is super prepared like he is ready ready like you've never seen anything like this man so guys please like this video subscribe to this channel i'm gonna be providing you with a lot more content so let's get into this so man michael bury scion asset management like look at his portfolio value now only 41 million with only six stocks remember michael bury usually has like whatever like 13 14 positions going in and out just doing a lot with his portfolio but now yo he has been like on the forefront of saying like elon musk like all tesla is a bubble he's saying everything basically is a bubble right now and i'm gonna show you later on that his tweets are just saying like screaming sell sell sell so guys tell me down below what do you believe do you believe what michael berry is saying because remember he he predicted the big short the the whole freaking uh crash with the housing market he did predict that in 2008 2009 so is this prediction right this time like you have to understand like where he's coming from and what he's seeing in the market and we're gonna get into what he's seeing but first let's go in his portfolio cvs he really believes in cbs because he's been holding cbs and he hasn't been really selling so he really believes in cbs and that's a good sign he bought it in q1 2021 and he's been holding ever since so guys we might have to do a deep dive on c uh cbs and why he like loves this pharmacy retail company but it has to do with the freaking um the modern shots and all the pfizer and all the the whole pandemic and that's how they're getting a lot of the revenue man that's how they're gonna continue to grow and he still sees that as a undervalued stock right now so we might have to do a deep dive on cbs because probably cbs might be looking undervalued right now let's see where it is in the market since october 2020 has had a 58 run it's only that 16 pe 123 billion market cap so cvs hasn't been doing too bad not too good just probably mediocre but he still sees it as a huge opportunity because he's there's a 40 position in it even though that's not a lot because you know he has man he's ready like he's ready for the crash you know how much cash he probably has on the side right now lockheed martin man and this is an interesting buy because we know what's happening with the us um us and china relationships with taiwan the military defense all that stuff they're just picking that up there that's gonna keep picking up as biden and uh biden and ji jinping sees their like uh competitiveness go up and they're trying to compete on like defense on a freaking military on just the whole landscape of just growing the economy so lockheed martin actually looks like something that you might have to dig into it it might be interesting buy man so man i'm prob i might look into lockheed martin man there's probably already good uh write-ups and there's good like valuations on the internet but that's an interesting um concept that michael berry is thinking so like look how defensive like just look how like on defense he is like cvs like see that cvs isn't gonna go anywhere like that's always gonna be around like like even if the economy tanks like cvs is still going to be their defense like lockheed martin like building like all those freaking fighter jets and selling them like come on like think about that that's never going away so he's really on the defense industrial dina industrial supplies like he just bought 2.5 uh 2.7 percent so just he understands what's going on in the economy right now what he's seeing and if he's right he might like he's gonna make a lot because i wager that he's probably 50 in cash right now just sitting on the sideline waiting for something to happen because just look at all of this cell cell discovery freaking remember when i i thought about actually going into discovery and look at it but like he's sold out of discovery golden ocean sun coke like pharmaceutical scorpio just everything global growth like he's just sold 100 100 100 so like let's think about that like these are not small positions 13 18 of his portfolio 18 like like he's selling uh like five he's selling out of these positions preparing for the worst and we can just see that he expects a huge bubble pop like the market crash he expecting is going to be worse than 2008 2009 he i think he's honestly thinking that this could be in great depression territories like so but like we have to really think about it like michael berry come on like he can't predict it he did it once but man like it's just too hard to predict like so let's look at what michael bury is seeing right now and all his tweets regarding the crash man because these are interesting tweets and man we're gonna go into it like look at this more speculation than the 1920 man more over valuation than the 1990s and we know what the tech bubble did man we know the great depression we know all of that stuff more more geopolitical economic strife than the 1970s biden and china taiwan we have russia like there is so there's man but like think about it too there's always going to be new market headlines new market stuff there's always going to be war predictions there's always going to be supply chain issues there's always something new like it's never just steady there's always something coming up always something new they have to build drama right players grabbing the barrel of color in the house's rifle with the set gov whatever right and then riveon a hundred guys i ipo it's valued 120 billion and hasn't produced anything so that's how he's looking at it he's just like how is his company priced at this much hasn't produced anything like hasn't made anything hasn't sold anything really like they have contracts with amazon which is like really strong but still it still hasn't produced anything and this is how he's just relating it to tesla i think this is because it tesla people see what happened with the electric car company with tesla and they're predicting this where uh revion too so that's what i'm seeing look what michael berry said again the s p 5 uh the s p 500's nominal p e ratio is 26 the schiller cape is 39 23 neither necessarily nor sufficient but the s ps was 18 before the 2000 and 2009 58 crash so in 2008 2009 it was at 18 and now we're at we're at 39.

02. think about that we're at 39 and it was at 18 before it crashed the s p and then 20 before the 1929 1939 80 crash so that crash was only that's crazy man when you really think about it it's this like it makes sense but at the same time companies are doing way better than whatever in 1990s and in the freaking 1929's like companies like google facebook apple microsoft they're actually growing and they have real earnings it's not like the tech bubble where yahoo was selling at like a thousand p e and it had no earnings like or pets.com with no earnings it's like it's not like that as the main i'm talking about the main companies those main companies are still growing 20 20 they have trillion dollar market caps and they have dominant market positions so i'm not sure if i totally agree on what's happening in 19 before the 1973 1975 crash 48 crashed so and earnings fell 91 in 2008 2009 73 and 29 39 so this one i'm seeing like michael bury has his head down he has more than i guarantee he has way more than 50 in cash predicting a crash so guys what are you doing with your money like are you having are you saving it for a rainy day because we see inflation we see supply chain issues we see biden and china going back and forth what are your views on the whole market are you bearish bullish for the next five to ten years what are you doing with your cash are you selling off some positions are you just holding because you know that you cannot predict the next cycle the next crash but you can understand that if anything we are in the last innings of a baseball game we're probably in the ninth inning like evaluations so you see phil town even too he is he's still 35 in cash right now so you see some of these investors warren buffett he has over 140 billion dollars in cash waiting for something to happen so you see a lot of these super investors having a lot of cash on the side waiting for something to happen but we don't know if that's gonna happen so tell me just tell me down below what you guys are doing man like subscribe to this video and i get back to you in the next one peace