저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥이 평탄했으나 과거와 달리 큰 일일 낙폭이 드물어 변동폭이 정상화되는 중이라고 봄. 나스닥 약 5%(약 600pt, 1만2천pt 기준) 조정 가능성, S&P500도 약 5%(약 200pt, 4100 기준) 조정 후 반등 가능성 제시. RSI 30~40 구간 매수 전략을 권하고 과매수 매도는 지양. 코스닥은 RSI 80 근처로 10%까지 조정 가능성, 국내 고평가주 주의, 시장 하락 중 역행 주도주 선별 중요성 강조. 미국 시장은 주도주 에너지가 약하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Yes, this is an introductory . Based on the Nasdaq, the market remained almost flat yesterday. You have likely noticed that, unlike in the past when the market was just entering the initial phase of a correction, it is difficult to see daily drops of 2-3%. Consequently, movements with smaller amplitudes are common these days.
Since index fluctuations of over 3% were typically rare occurrences—occurring only once or twice a year during crises—we may have become accustomed to them over the past year, but they are not actually a normal occurrence. Because typical negative news usually leads to a correction of around 1%, I believe the market's amplitude is in the process of normalizing.
Therefore, we should avoid overly extreme views. As you may have seen during the CPI and FMC events, the index did not move within a broad framework. In the past, with the CPI, there were times when it dropped by 4%, and there were even instances where it went up to 45%. However, that level of volatility has now been absorbed to some extent.
So, rather than considering such extreme views, even if a correction comes this time... Based on the index, a correction of about 5% is possible. In other words, since a 5% correction is possible, for example, if we are currently at around 12,000 points, 5% would be about 600 points. So, you just need to think of it as a possible correction of around 600 points.
In the case of the S&P 500 as well, it looks like a correction zone of about 5% is coming. Since it is currently around 4,100 points, the trend suggests a correction of around 200 points, touching the 4,000 mark before coming back up. Therefore, in terms of amplitude and wave pattern, this level of correction is not really at a level where we need to take a sudden exit or anything like that.
That is why if we take an overly extreme position at a time like this, incidental costs such as commissions, transaction fees, and taxes will increase significantly. In fact, it is better to buy multiple times with a small amount of your own capital because almost all taxes and fees are settled when you sell.
Therefore, even if we can take a little longer with the buying process, it is advantageous to sell quickly and strongly. From that perspective, that is why I keep advising against frequent selling. Now, looking at the market as we did previously, when should we make additional purchases? Let me briefly explain using the auxiliary indicators we have with us.
We call the Relative Strength Index the RSI, right? It shows overbought and oversold conditions, but its basic characteristic is that during an uptrend, the RSI stays around 70 or 80 while rising. So, those who previously engaged in amplitude or swing trading often missed out on significant profits if they simply sold in the overbought zone based on the RSI.
This is because the overbought state persists. That is a characteristic of a bull market. Now, if we consider the characteristic of a bear market, the oversold state persists. I see the RSI staying around 30 or 40 while continuously trending downwards. That is the characteristic of the bear market we experienced last year.
That is correct. As you can see, the RSI value itself has been hovering around 3-40, showing a decline for nearly two months. However, if we had judged this as oversold and entered a buy position, it would have been practically difficult to see a profit. Now,conversely, oversold conditions in an uptrend and overbought conditions in a downtrend have significantly high entry points.
In other words, judging the peak in a downtrend tends to be quite accurate, as you can see. This is because the position is maintained for a short period; in a downtrend, the upward energy lacks the strength to stay at a high position indefinitely because supply zones keep pouring out. Therefore, as you can see, the timing for the overbought in a downtrend hit a very high entry point.
So, what about now? In an uptrend situation, the RSI can indicate a significantly high entry point for buying. So, to give you some advice, if you plan to accumulate shares going forward, just watch. Simply hold onto your chart and watch, and if you enter a buy position when the RSI approaches the 3-40 range, then we can successfully execute an uptrend investment.
The point is that there is a possibility. Conversely, if the RSI were to collapse as it shifts back and forth, you would have to cut your losses. However, as long as we are currently in an uptrend, this type of investment strategy can serve as a way to establish a simple yet consistent investment principle.
I don't usually talk about this with indicators, but I do occasionally mention it this way. I am only giving you truly practical advice, so I hope you understand that aspect well. Therefore, since the RSI has now entered an uptrend, I hope you realize that it can be quite useful for identifying buy timing on the downside.
So, instead of making a fuss just because a correction has occurred, we should note that it is currently going down from the 50s to 60s. If a correction happens, it will likely touch the 40s or high 30s range. Since it is an uptrend, then we can identify that zone as a buying opportunity. So, rather than investing out of excessive fear, you simply need to take advantage of the indicators to some extent, observe the trend flow as a swing trade, and determine your buy and sell timings.
The S&P 500 is similar, and so are semiconductors, for example. In this case, it is currently dropping to 40, right? Then you can sense it. You prepare by thinking that there might be buy or sell timing in the next draw. Actually, investing simply in that way can be a bit easier to manage in an unstable market like the current one.
Now, in the case of QQ, it is currently positioned at the upper end, and a full-scale correction hasn't started yet. So, at a time like this, we could say we should buy or, for example, sell. You might say you want to liquidate your entire position and find a new entry timing, but what I am saying is that it only looks easy because I have expressed it simply.
Ultimately, even if the RSI goes near 3 or 40, there are numerous whipsaws within that range. In other words, it is full of movements that shake out your positions or automated buy and sell orders in the upward direction, so it is not as easy as I am saying. However, the reason what I am saying seems easy is that when investing in a bullish trend within the broader framework, this method has a high probability of hitting.
So, I hope you understand those aspects. So, in the case of TQQ as well, such market conditions actually occurred. That is why US stocks are always People say it is the answer, but emerging markets are actually offering much better returns right now. You need to invest in the US market while understanding these aspects.
So, based on current standards, both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ are at the beginning of a correction. In fact, since the KOSDAQ's RSI rose to nearly 80, it could pull sharply and quickly in the short term. Therefore, it is a zone where a correction of around 40 to 50 is possible. However, in the case of the KOSDAQ, the extent of the correction could go up to 10%.
Stocks that have risen significantly could experience a sharp correction, or stocks that haven't been receiving much attention might fall even more. Therefore, regarding domestic stocks currently at a high level, you need to be cautious unless you are at a starting point. However, since the market has already dropped nearly 5% in just two days, pulling back now won't necessarily save a significant portion; you should consider the remaining 5% to be the same.
So, the overall global index is entering a phase of a minus 5% correction, and in a market like this, choosing which individual stocks to invest in is actually quite important. It is important. In other words, even while the market is falling, there are stocks that are actually starting in the opposite direction.
Personally, I am always making an effort to identify these stocks and sharing my findings. Therefore, please keep this in mind and observe which stocks are rising against the market trend. It is necessary to invest by riding the wave of the leading stocks at that moment when the market starts to rebound.
However, in the case of the US market, the energy is so weak that the presence of a leader is not clearly evident. I would like to mention this difficulty one last time before wrapping up the video. If you found today's video helpful, please subscribe and like. Thank you.
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