저자: The David Lin Report Clips · 외국인
요약 보기
Silicon Valley Bank 붕괴 이후 채권 시장의 신호를 다룬 영상 요약이다. 발표자는 대형 은행보다 AI 섹터의 사모대출이 더 큰 리스크라고 본다. CoreWeave는 10월 한 달 주가가 40% 하락했고 고점 대비 약 63% 떨어졌으며, 부채는 약 500억 달러 규모다. Oracle 채권도 부실에 가까워지고 있다고 지적한다.
다듬은 글
Part of the crisis that led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank was that wealthy investors realized that money market funds yielded higher returns than bank deposits, so they also began withdrawing funds. Um, but that's not a problem for the big banks, is it? No. Big banks are too big to fail. They can, they adjust their rates accordingly.
If they need deposits, it's not, it's not a big problem for them. OK. What is a problem for investors is private lending in the AI sector. I want to open up a chart of one particular stock to illustrate this, Dr. Honig. This is CoreWeave. CoreWeave is what we call a cloud-less company . They buy GPUs and rent out AI computing power to other companies.
Their shares fell 40% in October alone. They have fallen by about 63% from their peak in May of this year. Some of their debt, by the way, they have about $50 billion in debt. Some of their debt now yields 15-16% per annum. Oracle is another example of a company whose bonds are approaching distressed status.
So, are CoreWeave and Oracle just isolated cases of companies with very high levels of debt that are being punished by bond investors, or are they, so to speak, the " canary in the mine" for the entire AI sector? Well, I would say, you know, it's like everything else . Those firms that have a higher level of debt load than others will be the first to feel the pressure, and that's what you're seeing there now .
So if interest rates continue to rise and the refinancing of these large private loans in other industries requires new loans to maintain borrowing levels, their cash flows will suffer, their financial prospects will deteriorate, and yes, confidence in the industry as a whole could be lost. And this is one of the problems.
And I consider it a completely valid fear. Another problem is the presence of interdependencies. You have private credit structures, you have private equity firms that buy life insurance companies, forcing them to, let's say, invest or, I would say, provide deposits to a private lender, which then makes loans to other subsidiaries of the private equity group.
So you have an intertwined industry that is now becoming increasingly complex and more debt-laden. And all these risks, in my opinion, the market is starting to take into account, because their money is at stake. And this is part of the folding process that may still occur. If, say, these financing costs remain high, they will probably attract less money in the bond market in the future.
This could slow down the development of artificial intelligence. Do you think regulators are paying enough attention to this? Well, it's hard to say whether they pay enough attention, but I think they do pay some attention to it, and it's worth doing. I think one of the consequences of crowding out is that the government, with its $40 trillion debt and $2 trillion in new debt every year, will borrow no matter what , regardless of interest rates.
This means that rates will generally increase, and for the private sector, whether it's AI, Oracle, or anyone else, their rates will increase even more. And that puts more pressure on them, making them unable to borrow as much, invest and develop their new systems, which slows down the economy . And depending on how serious it is, it could cause a real economic slowdown, affecting other companies in the economy.
And this is something that , without intending to be pessimistic, you as an investor should pay attention to. Why is the Nasdaq still at all-time highs? What does the bond market notice that the stock market doesn't? And the MOVE index, which tracks bond market volatility, rose sharply , as you may recall, earlier this month and last month.
However, the VIX, the stock volatility index, has actually barely changed. Why is that, Dr. Honig? Well, who knows for sure, but certainly as an investor, you know that the bond market is under threat. Profitability is increasing. If you invest in this, you could lose money very quickly if these returns continue to rise and the price of the bond you bought falls.
This is real. What you also see in the stock market is that the world is redirecting its investments. The foreign private sector has invested in U.S. government securities, but now they are investing in the stock market, surprisingly. So, they actually increase the demand for stocks compared to the demand for bonds.
And I think that's what you're seeing right now. And you will do this until people start caring more about cash flow and net free cash flow in the stock markets. And that might make them say, "Well, let's look elsewhere." And we'll have to see how it all unfolds.
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