저자: PeterSchiff&GrantCardone · 외국인
요약 보기
Cardone는 금리 상승으로 부동산 자산 가치가 약 800억 달러 증발했다며, 현금흐름 압박 속에서도 기관급 자산을 장기(3~5년) 관점에서 매입 중이라고 밝힘. Schiff는 40년간의 채권 강세장(1981~2021)이 끝나고 고금리·고부채 시대가 왔다고 주장하며, 인플레이션이 금리보다 빨라 금에 우호적이라고 봄. 다만 Schiff는 주택가격이 50% 폭락하진 않고 소폭 조정이 나타날 것이라 함. 대부분 주택담보대출이 4% 미만 고정금리라 매도 유인이 적다는 점도 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
You're not even going to start, let's talk about growth. I would like to know what you both think about what to do in the face of rising interest rates. Let's start with Grant. This directly affects real estate. How would you allocate your real estate portfolio differently now, with a 7% mortgage compared to much lower rates a year or two ago?
Yes, well, these are very, very difficult times for real estate professionals. I can tell you right now that this is not what a person like me wants. I mean, probably $80 million has evaporated from the value of our real estate in the last three or four weeks. Just in a very short period of time because of these rates.
We have been very active in buying large, institutional- quality assets, and we will continue to do so, because when rates rise, prices fall. Our entrance is very cheap now, but it's very scary to buy now. It's like...your cash flow is getting squeezed. David, as you know. But our cost base for these assets...I buy institutional- quality assets in great locations.
We believe that in three to five years we will look back and this will prove to be a great investment, even if cash flow is limited. Okay, Peter, rising interest rates, gold doesn't like higher real rates either. So are you doing anything differently? Well, first of all, I don't think we have higher real rates.
I actually believe that inflation is rising faster than rates. And I think that will continue. I think nominal rates will continue to rise, but not as much as inflation. So I actually think it's quite bullish for gold, even though investors have seen it as a headwind. It's actually an incentive, but regarding the real estate comments, I'm not entirely sure about the composition of Grant's portfolios.
But I really think the stakes are going to go much higher from here. This is not a peak, and it will create a lot of problems in the real estate market and in the economy as a whole, especially in the US economy, which was really built on real estate, because we were in a " bull" bond market for 40 years, from 1981 to 2021, bond yields were falling.
Ten-year Treasury bonds fell from 16% to 60 basis points . A huge "bull " market. The 30-year fixed- rate mortgage fell from 18% to 2 and 5/8 by 2021. So what's happened over these 40 years is that mortgage rates have fallen, which has helped real estate prices rise, they're doing the opposite. And so it happened that American homeowners received this priceless gift—a lifeline: every few years, they refinanced their mortgages, cashed out, and at the same time reduced future payments.
So that was great. They could pay off their credit card debt. They could have made repairs to the house. They could do whatever they wanted and had a wealth effect as they became wealthier due to the constant rise in real estate prices. Now we are in the opposite situation, where real estate prices are not actually increasing, and may even fall significantly, but mortgage rates will continue to rise.
Did n't you recently say they could drop 50% or something? Well, no. What I meant was that if mortgage rates hit 9%, which I think we could do in the first quarter of next year, then for a house to cost the same at 9 % as it did at 3%, the price would have to be cut in half to keep the monthly payments the same.
But something else is happening: insurance premiums have skyrocketed, maintenance costs have also skyrocketed, utilities are becoming more expensive, home ownership is becoming increasingly expensive, and the lifeline has been cut. No more cash-out refinances, no more monthly payment reductions, and we are entering a new reality in America that has never been seen before .
We started with low interest rates and low debt levels. It was wonderful. Then we had low debt levels and high interest rates. This was acceptable. Peter, you know... finish it. I'm almost done. We had low debt and high interest rates. Then we went into a period of high debt and low interest rates, and that was something we could handle.
Yes, we had high debt, but it was cheap, so we could afford it. We have entered an era of high debt and high interest rates, and of course debt levels are higher than ever. And who knows how high these rates will go, but they will be significantly higher than the five or six percent we are at now. Okay, Greg, go ahead.
How...how, Peter, how high before they can't grow any higher? Because there is a limit beyond which they can no longer rise. Well, well, there is no limit beyond which they cannot grow. But they just can't ... there's a point where they get so high that everything collapses. But that in itself doesn't lower the stakes.
There may come a critical moment when the Fed steps in and says: you know what? We can't let rates go up any further, and then they'll start the printing presses and start buying up all the debt. But then we will get uncontrolled or hyperinflation. So it's not...you know, then it wo n't change anything .
And then, of course, the only debt that will stop growing is the one that the government buys up. So if the government, if the Fed buys Treasury bonds, mortgage rates will still go up. You know, they're going to have to buy mortgage-backed securities. They will have to buy corporate debt. They will have to start because anything the Fed doesn't buy will continue to become more expensive as inflation rises.
So if inflation is 10% or 15% per year, I won't borrow money at a lower interest rate. Yes, but again, this is all talk about the end of the world. I didn't say the world was ending. I just said the stakes would get significantly higher. I know, but it's always like that with you, man. And the reality is that things are always getting better in this country.
Literally everything, they'll just get worse at first. Look, I'm optimistic about AI. I think there are many reasons for optimism, but we have to pay for it . There is a price to pay. The consequences of this cheap money will be felt. We lived lavishly, beyond our means. How long has this debt clock threatened you throughout your life?
time. I'm watching, I've seen this crisis coming. since then, understand? Not since the beginning of time. I'm not that old. I'm not that old. Ever since debt came into existence , ever since we have debts, my whole life, since I was ten years old, there has been a debt clock. Yes, debt No, well, every year it was like: we have too much debt, sorry, we have too much, we can't afford this anymore, the world is coming to an end, you know?
They said the world was coming to an end. Half of the homes, half of the homes in America, there's $35 trillion of equity concentrated in homes today. Listen, the world hasn't ended. We had the financial crisis of 2008, the world didn't end, right? So, bad things can happen without the world ending.
There will be, there will be a debt crisis, a sovereign debt crisis. If you had bought, if you had bought all the foreclosed homes in 2008, 9, and 10, you would be so rich today that you wouldn't have to move to Puerto Rico. Okay. So I'm richer because I moved to Puerto Rico. But yeah, I know, but you wouldn't have to, you wouldn't have to make that choice.
You would say, But I love, but I love living here. In '9, '10, '11, and '12, if you bought real estate when it was falling rapidly, you would be so rich, but the difference was, Well, I'm rich, I'm rich enough, sorry. Well, you don't know what you don't know, you know? So 50% of all loans in this country, 50% of all loans in this country have a rate below 4%.
And they have 27, 27 years left until the end of their term. about losses. will not depreciate, people. Okay, well, let me tell you what you do. to see—these are things, I apologize. Sorry. Let me just finish, please . What you will see is a lack of activity. You won't see housing prices fall , okay?
You won't see a 50 percent drop in prices for any private home in this country. OK. So, let me tell you, you're going to see some small setbacks. Sorry. Let me just finish. I'll finish. You will see small pullbacks. You will see small pullbacks where people are forced to sell because the housing market needs movement in the secondary market, not from first-home buyers.
And half of the homes have a loan rate below 4%. So no one will trade that for six or seven percent.
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