저자: TomLee · 외국인
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연초 시장 조정은 매수 기회이며 S&P500이 올해 중반 7,000까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 제조업 회복(ISM 반등)과 연준 완화 기조가 상승 동력이며, 금융여건 완화로 중소형주·금융·지역은행·산업재로 상승이 확산될 것으로 봄. 비트코인 9.7만달러 유지는 위험선호 신호로 해석하고, 블랙록 ETF 유출은 세금·리밸런싱 등 일시적 요인으로 우려 낮다고 함. 과거 주가 상승 설명은 제외.
다듬은 글
how's it going everyone it's Sam Tom Lee just talked about what he thinks is happening in the market that's a buy the dip Market he recently said to load the truck up back the truck up to buy some of these assets and he goes through why black rock sold a decent amount of Bitcoin had a record outflow um reported yesterday so we're going to be playing that clip I'll give you some of my thoughts at the end if you want to trade crypto there is a link underneath the video to coin w we have some exciting things happening I I've been trading and we've gotten really good returns um with coin W can leverage trade you can set it up in just a few minutes because there's no kyc you don't need a VPN also they're doing a pretty sweet uh giveaway right now so deposit you get 10% deposit bonus and up to 3,000 soie just depending on a couple different things how much you trade you can see as you trade more you get more soie definitely check that out underneath the video I've been opening trades and I actually have a video on trading coming in the next 24 hours or so so be on the lookout for that thanks so much and let's get over to Tom Lee is the market now free of the indecisive December choppiness that dropped the average stock by more than 6% and what are the crucial catalysts to watch from here as January unfolds here to take on those questions is fun stretch Tom Lee a CNBC contributor of course Tom good to see you happy New Year Happy New Year to you so first off Tom what's what's your diagnosis of what the Market's been contending with here in the last several weeks as we've gone sideways and had sort of this negative skew toward Market breath markets kind of did flail into the end of last year and the first day of 2025 and I think it was trying to digest a few things you know that the pretty dramatic move in long-term yields and the dramatic droing yields in China I think that there has been some concerns about macro as you saw some events um over the past few days and I think there was General profit taking and some sort of like let's wait and see how 2 has given we just book two 20% backtack years and do you think that those things will remain overhangs I mean obviously you you you certainly have a bullish orientation you feel as if the S&P 500 can get to 7,000 by mid year before perhaps a pullback well if we're getting from here to 7,000 in less than 6 months you're talking about you know 35% annualized pace of of gain so how do we get there well I think one thing you know the viewers need to keep in mind is that just just because the calendar year changed doesn't mean that the strength that we saw throughout 2024 suddenly has evaporated um you know there are Tailwinds building because the FED is dovish um even if they're making fewer Cuts but I think one of the sort of two important things happening early in 2025 is going to be one we seeing manufacturing recover you know the ISM Manufacturing you know posted one of the highest readings in almost 2 and a half years I mean it's been below 50 basically for for nearly 3 years and the second is that I think the labor market could be softening in a way because you whether you look at linkup data or the ism employment to tell us that the FED now has to be focused back on supporting the economy so I think this month could be quite decisive in the sense that we've got weakness because of some insecurities building but I think it's you know the same tail ones are in place I mean I I I think it's still a buy the dip kind of market and in terms of perhaps the same themes being in place does that mean that the leadership profile of the market you expect to stay similar to 2024 I mean I know it's waxed and Wayan between Mega cap growth leadership and then some broader participation but we did finish again with dominance by the NASDAQ 100 type stocks investor still are going to pay for earnings visibility and that's why I think the mag 7 including Nvidia are going to be important Holdings um but Financial conditions should ease this year easing Financial conditions does allow some iCal to post better earnings growth like financials and Regional Banks Industrials and and small cap so I think that the there should be a case for broadening of the markets this year and then finally you know I think in terms of risk appetite still one of the good measures to to look at how risk appetite is is to look at something like Bitcoin and and at 97,000 it's still telling us that you know this is still a risk on Market yeah I mean obviously it's held almost all of its gains uh since that little poke above 100 ,000 in Bitcoin although I do wonder what you make of the the relatively heavy outflow we were seeing in the uh in the Black Rock ETF that holds Bitcoin whether it was just sort of deferred profit taking into a new tax year or something else uh it's hard to tell and I think with the ETFs uh it is creating I think an interesting Dynamic which is that um someone who sells a black rock ETF doesn't have a 30-day holding period if they buy another Bitcoin ETF so I think in some ways uh you can see people doing basis swaps and stepped up in and tax optimization strategies and not really having to worry about that 30-day holding period This is a buy the dip Market still if there's a dip you better buy it up and we've seen that a lot on bitcoin let's just pull up a Bitcoin chart here ever since inauguration actually really since early September we've been rallying up whenever there's a 10 20% dip bought up 10 20% dip bought up 10 20% dip bought up 10 20% dip bought up and we see that with other stocks too I mean or with with just the stock market in general he's basically saying if you have an opportunity you should you should buy and he said that recently he said back up the truck with a recent tip he said back up the truck truck we are buyers here and largely that's been correct um the S&P 500 has done extremely well and just continues to see small small pullbacks I think we just saw a 4 or 5% pullback from the all-time high yeah 4% pullback and now it's being bought up a bit uh over the last one year the S&P 500 up 26% if you look at Bitcoin too BTC has been uh on a tear over last one year up 130% it has not there's not been a bad time to buy basically uh with the exception of just recently with all-time Highs but generally everyone's up so he thinks there's going to be a broadening out as well that smaller stocks will do well because there'll be more um liquidity there will be looser conditions same thing could be said for altcoins uh in a way obviously they're very different beast but you could look at them similarly which is people will go to higher risk Investments um and yeah altcoins a higher risk version of cryptocurrency investment um also explained there why black rock was selling why they were forced to sell their Bitcoin that's because their clients are putting in sell orders it could be just to it could be for various reasons for rebalancing to um tax uh reasons but generally he doesn't think it's a big concern I think Tomley continues to hit the nail on the head he's been right for a very long time and that's why he gets asked on to CNBC multiple times a week because he has been correct almost every single week uh on most predictions obviously he did predict that small caps would perform pretty well last year and they were kind of lackluster but uh comparatively to some of the big caps obviously like the top stocks did extremely well the mag 7 did extremely well let me know your thoughts though thank you so much for watching I really do appreciate it I'll see you all in the next one bye for
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