저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 2025년 1분기 비트코인 ETF 유입 가속과 전략적 비트코인 비축 기대를 근거로 BTC가 150k 이상으로 오를 것이라 주장. 미국 경기 측면에서 ISM 제조업 회복과 친기업 행정부로 S&P500이 2025년 상반기 약 7,000까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 인플레이션 재가속 우려는 과도하다고 보며 하방 위험이 있다는 입장. 영상 진행자는 이를 근거로 BTC 약 181k, 최대 250k까지 언급하며 레버리지 거래를 홍보함. 자막상 Tom Lee의 BTC 250k 발언은 진행자가 인용한 내용.
다듬은 글
how's it going everyone it's Sam more people need to listen to Tom Lee I think Tom Lee has been right on the money and today we have a very well-known Twitter account that has been talking with a lot of uh a lot of very important people behind the scenes for years ever since like the FTX Fallout and uh some of the other issues that came up during the bare Market they've been right in the ears of the most important people in the crypto industry and they heard from someone at a Bitcoin ETF firm today more people should listen to Fun Strat and to listen to Tomley when he makes Bitcoin predictions they also go over a couple other things that are happening so I want to show you what Tom Lee just said um in the last day and then also show you what this means for Bitcoin also if you want to trade crypto there's a link to blof fin underneath the video uh trading isn't right for everyone but you can make insane gains if you do this properly as you can see here we're up thousands and thousands of dollars on our positions and when you use the link to blow fin uh we're going to give you some sign up bonuses I actually just have a new sign up bonus to give you so uh check for that underneath the video and when you sign up and start depositing and do some trading that's when you can get some of these extra bonuses so definitely check that out um and also exing news end of 2024 um is here 2025 is going to bring up a lot of exciting things um we are going to do a total rehaul of the patreon um a a change up of the patreon geared towards beginners so be on the lookout for that in the future but let's start here Andrew AP Abacus says a conversation this morning with a source at a btcf firm inflows will accelerate in q1 2025 so they're probably hearing from different hedge funds or different uh different uh pens providers different uh companies that they are going to be buying these ETFs um they just need to wait until a certain dat the BSR will happen even if it's BSR light um so uh strategic Reserve it's going to happen in q1 they're saying we expect price to push over 150k and more people should listen to Fun strp when he makes Bitcoin predictions now let's look at what Tom Lee said just yesterday and then we'll extrapolate this to bitcoin and see what this means because it has direct implications on bitcoin well uh what you wish for earlier we were like wow there's nothing going on in the Futures uh we're down 20 points on the Dow and we we had just fractional losses uh and here you go uh it has turned into this Tom Lee um significant declines now especially after what happened last week on Friday Tom Le's here fun stri this is from yesterday today just so you know Global advisers Chief investment officer and a CNBC contributor this is not this is a Grinch Rally or the Grinch selloff this is not a Santa Claus rally it's not going as planned Tom it's not I think investors have been bit nervous since December 18th you know the fomc rate decision and worried that the FED may not be as doish as as investors previously thought but uh I think fundamental have remained intact so to us you know I think this is a bit a disappointing but it's I think a bit of profit taking some hes hesitancy around the FED but I think it doesn't really change that 2025 is shaping up to have a lot of tail lnds so you you this doesn't this just delays some of the the continuation in in uh a secular bull market that you've been talking about uh that's right I mean I think one of the since of 2024 has been we we've seen periods of Market wobbling and weakness um we know investors get pretty pretty quick to turn bearish when that happens but it turns out that these have all proven to be buying opportunities I I don't think there's a lot of signal to me that December's been a weak month it's it is obviously disappointing because it should be a seasonally strong period but you know if we you know end down even you know S&P 5900 into your end I I I don't think it just changes that in 2025 there's a lot to look forward to so the what you thought might have this year being put off so what what does that mean for next year let's say the first half of next year what what do you think we're in for and you know with with valuations and where multiples are right now with all that in mind do you think it could be a really positive first half of the year uh I I do think that one of the things we're watching most closely is uh what happens to CEO confidence early next year we know they've been cautious for the last two and a half years it's really evident and looking at me measures like the ISM Manufacturing that's been below 50 since October 2022 um and that's highly correlated with S&P earnings growth I I do think that that's going to finally recover to above 50 kind of signaling that we're back into an expansionary uh CEO mindset you know it is purchasing managers on top of that you know we have an incoming Administration that ultimately is going to be viewed by markets as Pro business and I think that ignites reignites animal spirits and I think the FED is going to prove to be doish even if they're trying to figure out where neutral is they're still supportive of markets so it's a good combination for for for I think upside for Equity so you know in the first half of next year I think S&P can get close to 7,000 and that's that's a lot of upside from here 7,000 you you've made made some calls some pression calls about inflation or about the markets based on uh inflation do you think um recent worries that it's that it's reheating or or misplaced right now uh I do think inflation worries are misplaced I know there's a lot of folks calling for a Resurgence of inflation and I know for whatever reason January typically doesn't seem to be seasonally adjusted away so we could see what looks like a surge in January CPI um but to me the drivers of inflation are wages and the FED is said the labor market is not in a place that is inflationary it's shelter and we know shelter is really just catching up from the gap between uh where market prices are which is not as inflationary to how the statistical adjustments get CPI to where where that needs to be and we know auto insurance has really distorted CPI to the upside for the last few years and that's cooling so unless there is a supply shock coming um I don't know exactly why we would have a second wave of inflation so to me there's I think there's downside risk to inflation in 2025 he says that the S&P 500 can go to 7,000 that is an 18.6% gain from where we are right now well this year we sold the S&P 500 go up 24% Bitcoin went up about 5x that it's up 22% so extrapolate that out that means that if Bitcoin does something similar it goes up 5x what the S&P 500 goes up we could be seeing about a $181,400 Bitcoin interesting interesting now Tom Lea specifically said that he thinks we could get up to a $250,000 Bitcoin you know I think when times are good people put more money and in things that are a little bit higher risk higher um volatility so yeah if we have another 20% move I could see Bitcoin going up even faster especially if we do see re accelerated um buys or accelerated buys from the ETFs again if you want a leverage trade and we are right let's say we're right about this these big moves in the future you can get really really wealthy from some of these leverage trades but you have to understand there's huge amounts of volatility and huge amounts of risks but there is that link to blof fin thank you so much I appreciate it and I'll see you all in the next one fu
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