저자: Gailbarang · 한국인
요약 보기
팔란티어(PLTR)의 사업 구조(정부·상업 매출, AIP 플랫폼), 2024년 매출 28.7억달러(정부 55%), 2025년 매출 가이던스 약 36% 성장 제시. 시가총액 약 3,200억달러, 매출·이익 대비 고평가를 인정하며 과도한 기대에 따른 주가 급락 위험 경고. 포트폴리오의 약 20% 이내 분산투자, 분할매수(적립식) 권고, 장기 관점 접근을 강조.
다듬은 글
Yes, hello everyone. This is Gailbarang. Today, I have brought another very interesting and useful investment idea. There is a company that I have recently become interested in . Now, it is a company called Palantir that Koreans love very much and has grown very rapidly and hotly . Many people are curious, so can I buy it now ?
You've asked me about this a lot, so I did some research. So, I’m going to explain while looking at the materials. What kind of company is Palantir? Simply put, you can think of it as a company that comprehensively gathers all data to establish relationships, and creates a competitive edge by properly utilizing data and AI so that the company can use this as a weapon to stay ahead .
So, it is a stock expected to grow rapidly, and the stock price has grown very quickly. It's not overvalued. Since you have mentioned this a lot, in today's video, I would like to talk about what kind of company Palantir is, what business it conducts, its performance, and its pros and cons from an investor's perspective .
First of all, Palantir was founded in 2003 by Peter Thiel, who is now a huge power player. Peter Thiel, the current power broker of the U.S. PayPal Mafia who made Trump president and secured Vice President Vance as his backup, is the founder of a company co-founded by Alex Scarf, Nathan Gettings, Joryson, and others .
This company was established in 2003 to support the U.S. government in better analyzing and utilizing intelligence data following the 9/11 attacks. Peter Thiel, co-founder of K8, stated that government agencies' ability to analyze terror intelligence was too poor, and thus created a new type of software company that incorporates new technologies from Silicon Valley.
So, what was created there is Palantir. So, Palantir faced a huge struggle to attract investment funds during its early commercial days, but it was very lucky to receive investment from In-Q-Tel, a venture capital firm . So the CIA became Palantia's first client. Even now, Palantir's key clients are considered to be the U.S.
government, particularly intelligence agencies and the Department of Defense. Also, Palantir does not cooperate with countries or companies that they deem detrimental to U.S. national interests or harmful to the public interest . And what is Palantir? It is said to be named after the magical orb from The Lord of the Rings, and it carries the symbolism of being able to see through the truth of everything.
However, depending on who handles it, this can be a weapon for mods, or it can be a weapon that turns everyone hostile . In fact, Palantir combines this data with AI to provide a platform that reads the flow of the world and hidden patterns . So, the headquarters is currently located in Denver, Colorado, USA, and it was directly listed on the New York Stock Exchange in late September 2020 .
The sticker is PLTR. It is necessary to examine the main product services, which consist of four major categories. The first is a data analysis platform for the Gotham government and industry. So, it is being used for counter-terrorism, crime analysis, and military operation simulations, and the U.S.
military is using it to predict terrorist movements in Afghanistan or to track drug trafficking at the border . The foundry business still accounts for the core of government revenue and is currently growing significantly. The second solution is called Foundry, which is a data call platform for enterprise customers.
So, we put the data scattered within the company into a single Palantir solution to analyze it and derive meaningful relationships . It is being used in various fields such as healthcare, energy, finance, and manufacturing, and once created, it can be applied to all industries . It is said that the scalability is excellent because it requires only a little customization .
It received attention, in particular, for being used in vaccine distribution during the COVID-19 pandemic . Currently, based on 2024 annual revenue, foundry accounts for more than half of commercial revenue . The third is an automation platform that rapidly deploys and maintains Apollok Palantir software in cloud or on-premises environments .
Therefore, it acts as an autonomous system that helps easily update and maintain Foundry or Gotham. And finally, the one that recently emerged and is causing a huge stir is AIP. The Palantir AI Platform was introduced in 2023, integrating generative AI into the Palantir Data Platform. Therefore, it enables customers to train large-scale language models (LMs) based on their own data and utilize them for enterprise business automation.
So, thanks to this AIP, Palantir has recently acquired a new policy identity as an AI platform company, which is the main reason for the rise in its stock price. So, if we look at the 2024 annual revenue, it generated $2.87 billion in revenue, 55% of which came from the government . 45% came from the commercial sector, and commercial foundries are growing rapidly.
And here, AIP was released in 2023 and is now growing by gradually increasing its files . But why are you giving Palantir such a high valuation? The scalability of foundries plays a significant role here, and it is said that about 100 large companies are currently using foundries . However, Palantir and its investors believe that eventually, every company and every government will use Palantir solutions.
So, this is the introduction. So, when I asked CEO Alex Karp what the target was, he replied, " We have now reached 10%." Palantir's market capitalization is currently around $320 billion . However, since they are aiming for over $3 trillion, and the CEO has a goal that it can sufficiently grow about tenfold in the future, Palantir investors also think that it will likely increase tenfold in about 5 to 10 years.
Now, it's a bit similar to Tesla. So, I get the feeling that the tendency for Tesla investors to invest in Palantir and Palantir investors to invest in Tesla is quite similar in nature . So, what are the goals for this year ? Palantir's annual revenue guidance for 2025 is approximately $390 million .
So, we said we would grow by 36% compared to last year's sales. It is growing very rapidly. The market capitalization has already exceeded $3 billion, and a separate guideline was provided for the U.S. commercial sector. Since the foundry business segment is growing rapidly, that sector is expected to reach approximately $120 million, representing a 68% growth compared to the same period last year .
Now, of course, although they released such bold guidance, the stock price took an 8% correction after the earnings announcement as it was evaluated as failing to meet investors' expectations, but yes, Palantir's stock price is already continuing to rise . Even recently, there were rumors circulating that Pelantir solutions were used in the war between Iran and Israel .
Although there doesn't seem to be any concrete evidence yet, Palantir provides solutions to governments whenever wars or crises break out, and because of its tremendous scalability for the corporate sector, its stock price continues to rise without stopping . And as the workforce size increases to over 4 people, they say it will ideally reach around 5, so there doesn't seem to be any particular problem with growth potential yet.
Because both the government and commercial sectors are too solid. Now, if we look at the strengths and appeal of investing in Palantir, the first is the solid revenue base in both the government and private sectors that I just mentioned. In the early days, government- based revenue accounted for 90%, but now the commercial sector has risen to about half, bringing the balance.
Also, dependence on a single customer is decreasing. Not the US or the Uban government. Therefore, it has a second appeal in that it secures both stability and growth potential simultaneously and is a platform company for the AI era. Therefore, with the emergence of AIIP, the trend is shifting away from AI being merely a fad and toward a form where customers integrate AI to empower humans at the very top, enabling them to make sound decisions .
So, as of 2024, AIP is already being used by over 450 client companies and is growing rapidly . The new revenue base, ARP, is also growing rapidly. It has a high-margin structure and strong cash flow. The operating profit margin is over 20%. It is one of the few AI companies with tremendous profitability, with a free cash flow margin approaching 40% .
So, based on this, they possess the capital flexibility to continuously conduct R&D, make investments, buy back their own shares, and carry out necessary M&As. Fourth, they have a customer expansion strategy; they employ " Front Developed Engineers" who, rather than simply receiving information from the client, are dispatched directly to the client site.
They work with the client for periods ranging from a few months to nearly half a year, directly defining their problems, writing code, and creating the solutions needed for that specific situation. Since we are using customer reviews, it is not easy to find this type. The solution is already outstanding, and with the addition of AI, it ultimately assists the human at the top in making the right choices through AI or Palantir solutions, and it is said that the efficiency of this is tremendous.
Now, however, there could be one risk from Palantir . For now, the current stock price is around $140 as of June . It is up as much as 80% since the beginning of the year . So, the current market capitalization is over 200 times the Forboard PR expected ranking over the next 12 months. The market capitalization is 500 times higher than the net profit over the past 12 months .
So, actually, if you look at this from a traditional approach, it is a really ridiculous valuation. So, to maintain this valuation, it must demonstrate continuous growth. So, if this stalls, there is a risk that the stock price could fall significantly. So, I think it would be good for you to judge for yourselves whether this will continue or not by studying it yourselves .
There is also some policy risk . Now, the government's national interest revenue could be affected by factors such as a reduction in the defense budget or a change of administration. Since government sales still account for about 40% to 50% of revenue, this risk is highlighted, especially during the US election season, depending on who takes the lead .
Thirdly, there are also regulatory and privacy risks. Therefore, experts say that if data protection laws in Europe or the U.S. strengthen data regulations, there may be restrictions on business expansion . Finally, as expectations for AIP have grown significantly and the stock price has risen, there is also instability that the stock price could plummet if quarterly earnings are even slightly underperforming or guidance is lowered .
So, the pros and cons of this company are clear to us. I think it would be better to allocate an appropriate amount based on how we study and evaluate, and when buying, instead of buying indefinitely, perhaps approach it in installments whenever the price drops slightly . Currently, analysts' target price is around $100 .
It was around $104, but since the current stock price is $137, it means it has risen quite quickly . Even more than analysts' estimates. And on Wall Street as well, 17 analysts gave evaluations, and four of them gave a neutral rating. Three recommended buying, four recommended selling. So, by Wall Street standards, the current price is a bit expensive.
Let's wait and see a little longer. You need to take this kind of stance into account as well . Now, if you invest in Palantir, you need to understand that Palantir's core concept is ontology, but they say this is very difficult. So, last weekend, during our Fanding special lecture, we invited Empal Joa to give a two-hour lecture on Palantir, and this is what I understood .
There are various systems and various data within this organization, you know . But regarding this, it redefines the relationship and creates meaning when the person at the top level makes decisions. I integrated various data and systems, so I am the decision-maker. So, from my perspective, I want to do a scenario like this, but how would it turn out?
Then, the Palantir solution will automatically retrieve various systems and data, and if you do it this way, it will turn out like this . It helps with decision-making in this way . I understood ontology as the process of taking the vast amount of data and concepts from this real world and making them useful to humans.
So, ultimately, the core of Palantir is helping people understand these systems and data to make good decisions, but so far, no company is doing this properly. There are various software companies like Oracle, but while they focus on fragmenting data to make it meaningful, I heard that Palantir solutions are like a huge bucket.
basket. So, if you input things like SAP, ERP, and various SCM solutions all at once, meaningful results are derived, and a person just needs to take them and make decisions based on them. However, since its excellence is being proven, atmospheric science is currently being introduced domestically at a very rapid pace .
Even in the U.S. So, the growth potential is tremendous. So I am also taking an interest and trying to get into public service . So, to summarize once again, the company Pelantir excels at combining AI and data to create something meaningful that is useful to people . So, it is a company with a unique positioning that is growing very rapidly, with a solid foundation in the government sector and a rapid increase in commercial and corporate clients .
However, since expectations are high and this is already largely reflected in the stock price, it would be good to keep three things in mind. First, it is good to diversify your investments. Uh, the risk is too high to go all-in. That is something the experts will have to handle. As for a small portion of the overall portfolio, based on your assessment, I think I can manage about 20%.
I think it would be best to manage your risks and diversify your investments. The second is split buying. I told you earlier, didn't I? Rather than going all-in when the price is too high, if you think, "This company looks good, but when should I buy?", you could buy a bit when it has dropped significantly, and buy again when it drops further.
However, if that is difficult, I think it would be better to buy a little today and then buy more when it drops about 10% from that point, using a dollar-cost averaging strategy to buy whenever the price drops . The third and final point is, well, obvious. I said that instead of short-term trading with a mid-to-long-term perspective, this company is really similar in nature to Tesla.
It has the potential to grow significantly in 2 or 5 years . It has already been proven to some extent . So, the point is that we need to approach this from a long-term perspective . So, today we have comprehensively examined everything from Palantir's history, core technology, performance, investments, strengths and weaknesses, to risks, and it is clear that data and AI are currently leading the future .
Therefore, in a world like this, Palantir is definitely a company that deserves close attention and study. If you are an investor. However, at this point, the most important thing is having a cool-headed eye to the gap between expectations and reality . I think that if you study it and invest wisely, it could become another good opportunity.
If you found this video helpful, I would appreciate it if you could subscribe, like, and turn on notifications . Well then, I will see you again in the next video . thank you It was a gala wind.
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