저자: Gabaram · 한국인
요약 보기
팔란티어는 AI 수혜와 흑자전환으로 크게 올랐으나, 8월 들어 고밸류에이션 부담, 차익실현 매도, 연준 정책 불확실성, AI 반도체 조정, 공매도 리포트(Citron) 영향으로 약 17% 하락했다. 공매도 리포트는 OpenAI 대비 고평가, 확장성 한계, 경쟁 심화(Databricks), 플라이휠 부재, 내부자 매도를 지적했다. 발언자는 팔란티어가 단기 하락 추세를 피하기 어렵다고 보면서도, 장기 투자자는 분할매수와 자신만의 체크리스트로 대응해야 한다고 강조한다. 월가 목표가는 현재가와 비슷한 약 155달러 수준이다.
다듬은 글
Yes, hello everyone. This is Gabaram. Uh, the end of August has arrived. Now that September has arrived, the year is already passing by so quickly, and today I would like to talk a little about a new stock, Palantir . When I log into the Korea Securities Depository’s SAVERO system for the first time in a while, I can view overseas stocks by custody amount and settlement amount, either weekly or monthly.
Recently, Palantir’s stock price has fallen by nearly 20% from its peak. At the same time, the U.S. stock that Koreans currently own the most is Tesla. Next is Nvidia and Palantir. The top three are Tesla, Nvidia, and Palantir, followed by Apple and Microsoft, and so on; the point is that Palantir is one of the top three.
However, considering that Palantir ranked 3rd in terms of purchase amount and 8th in terms of sales amount over the past week, it is receiving a tremendous amount of interest from Koreans. So today, I studied why Palantir's stock price has been falling recently, what the current situation is, and what points we, as investors, need to know .
Now, as far as I remember, back in late 2021 when I first invested in IONQ, IQ and Palantir were treated pretty much the same . So, in the case of Palantir, it was a stock that people were telling us to get out quickly—that we shouldn't buy it and should sell it right away and run—but now it has completely changed.
Compared to that time, it has risen more than tenfold; in the case of Palantir, the stock price was in the $6 range as recently as early 2023 . But since it is currently $156, it has risen by more than 20 times . Palantir, which rose about 25 times and was consequently the subject of the most hatred and ridicule from Western stock investors, and which is currently writing an undefeated legend and is the stock most held by Western investors following Tesla and Nvidia, is giving many investors a hard time as its stock price has recently plummeted by about 17% to 156% as of last Friday's closing price in August 2025 .
Also, investors need to properly understand why Palantir was so hot in the past and why its stock price is falling now . Now, first of all, Palantir is a software company that originally collaborated closely with government agencies such as the CIA and the U.S. Department of Defense . So, it is a company that analyzes and provides vast amounts of data to create solutions that can be utilized in the fields of security and war intelligence.
Because of this, Palantia has gained a trust premium since its early days, being known as software that nations trust and use . And there are three reasons why retail investors were enthusiastic about Palantir. First, as AI and big data were integrated, AI became a key technology and emerged as a future growth engine.
In particular, amidst the production-oriented AI Star Balloons that flared up with Choi Ji-T since 2023, investors identified Palantir as a key stock in the AI sheet sector. Secondly, there was stable government- based revenue. Therefore, there was a sense of stability knowing that even if private companies did not use it, it would not fail because the U.S.
government would use it, and thirdly, it had the appeal of being democratic. Immediately after the IPO, the stock price surged from $10 to $40, and it was even viewed as a stock to invest in with dreams, much like Tesla . A few years ago, Korean investors also viewed Palantir as the next Tesla starting from the end of 2020 when it went public, and indeed, a great many people invested in Palantir.
But this trend changed completely after turning into a surplus . Palantir's stock price really started to gain momentum after it turned profitable; in early 2023, Palantir recorded a profit for the first time on its founding date, based on Gap and now on the official U.S. accounting standards . Until then, Palantir had good technology but was constantly running at a loss.
So, in a way, some people treated it as a penny stock, but as it turned profitable, investors realized that it was making money, and as AI stocks took over the market, they started rising like crazy. As AI beneficiary stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft surged unexpectedly following the launch of the Chaeji T, Palantir also rose sharply as it was evaluated as an essential company in the data era and an AI beneficiary stock.
So, even after the announcement of the first profit in the first quarter of 2023, the stock price continued to rise steadily, and the stock, which was $6 in the first quarter of 2023, went up to $150 and $160 in August of this year. So, it can be said that Palantir's stock rally began in earnest as the turnaround to profitability coincided with the AI boom.
However, the background behind the recent sharp decline in the stock price since the beginning of August—particularly the 5% drop from $190 to $156 in just two weeks, down 17.5%—can be largely attributed to three factors. The first is the valuation burden. So, Palantir's PER already exceeds 700 times .
So, market expectations got ahead of themselves, and investors should have known that the stock price could fall with even the slightest fluctuation . It is scalable and this is just the beginning. Starting with the defense sector and expanding into the civilian sector, companies benefit from improved productivity and revenue when Palantir solutions are implemented.
As a result, Palantir solutions are being widely adopted by the military and major corporations in Korea . The PR has risen more than 700-fold on the expectation that this is just the beginning, but for that to be purified, the growth potential must not be dampened . However, in this situation, it can be seen that investor sentiment was shaken a little as short sellers like Citron Research publicly criticized Palantir, claiming it was a bubble detached from its fundamentals .
So there was a valuation burden, and profit- taking sales also started to appear. So, looking at 2025 alone, Palantir has risen by 140% compared to the beginning of the year . So, as investor sentiment wavered slightly near the peak, investors sought to lock in profits, leading to a flood of sell orders and a drop in stock prices.
Finally, there was also macroeconomic uncertainty and sector corrections. So, uncertainty regarding the Fed's policy has increased ahead of the Jackson Meeting at the end of August . Of course, Powell did not rule out an interest rate cut in his speech last Friday. While emphasizing the importance of the labor market and hinting at the possibility of interest rates, a flow of money out of overvalued tech stocks has started again.
Furthermore, AI semiconductor stocks fell significantly on Friday due to concerns that the proportion of revenue previously generated from U.S. exports could disappear, especially after China announced during Alibaba’s earnings call that it is testing its own AI chips . So, with all this going on, and with talk from Sam Altman and the MIT Report even claiming that AI is a bubble, leading AI players like Nvidia have undergone a correction, and it can be seen that Palantio has also followed the same trend .
So, in the end, there was the catalyst of the Doldo report, and regarding the selling for profit-taking, macroeconomic uncertainty, and interest rates, opinions are still divided on whether or not to proceed. With these uncertainties compounding, it can be said that Palantir's stock price could not avoid a short-term downward trend .
Now, we need to study the recent short-selling report from Citron Research . I always get reports on short selling of very hot and growing companies like IQ, Innoitor, and so on . So I studied them, and there were rarely any cases where they were completely wrong. They cleverly exaggerate or distort existing facts to sway investors.
However, investors with sound judgment can now study short-selling reports to identify specific weaknesses and areas that need improvement. Therefore, when a report is released regarding a company they invest in, they do not blindly dismiss it as wrong from a third-party perspective; instead, they can think, "Oh, there is some truth to this," or "This is a weakness of the company that needs to be fixed." You need to study in this way.
So, this Palantir short selling report came out on August 18, and on that day, Palantir's stock price actually dropped by more than 10% . There was indeed an impact from short selling . So I looked into the content, and the main logic is this: Palantir's valuation is excessive compared to OpenAI. Open AI has a corporate value of $5 billion and is expected to generate about $30 billion in revenue next year, so its PSR is about 17 times.
However, Palantir's projected revenue for next year is $5.6 billion, and if you compare this to OpenAI's PSR of 17x, the fair stock price is $40. However, before the drop at that time, Palantir's stock price was close to $180. So, I was saying that it is overvalued by about 4.5 times . By comparing OpenAI and Palantir.
So, Citron Research suggested that the current stock price of $160 to $190 is too expensive and also attacked the limitations of the business model. OpenAI is highly scalable because it operates on a SaaS model targeting consumer and enterprise developers worldwide, whereas Palantia relies on government contracts and some large enterprise projects.
They attacked it for being service-oriented and having low scalability. Now, regarding the total market share available, OpenAI is worth trillions of dollars, whereas Palantir is only at the level of hundreds of billions of dollars . There are limitations to the business model . I also mentioned intensifying competition as the third point; Palantir's expansion into the commercial sector is not easy because it is clashing head-on with giant competitors such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and the Data BRICS .
And they also made the claim that Data BRICS is actually lower than Palantir . So, Data BRICS is not yet publicly listed, but it is a company founded in 2013 by researchers from the University of Berkeley in the United States . So, what this company does is store vast amounts of data in one place and run AI and machine learning on it separately to extract insights needed by humans— this technology overlaps with Palantir's technology.
Citron Research stated that they are competitors . And Data BRICS has released its own AI model called DBRX, which is evaluated as having the best performance among open-source AI models . So, Siltron Research is saying that instead of simply collecting data, they utilize it to run AI directly and provide humans with necessary insights, and that this is superior to Data BRICS and Palantir's .
So, I said that Palantir's valuation is not justified due to this intensifying competition, and the fourth point is that the flywheel is missing. What this means is that while OpenAI has a network effect where the model improves and value increases as the number of users grows, Palantir is customized for each customer, so if one customer customizes and uses it, the results are not transferred to other customers .
So, they harshly criticized it, saying it was consulting packaged as software, but I don't think that's entirely true . I understand that once Palantir makes adjustments to fit a specific sector, multiple companies within that sector can use them . So, I think this is a slightly distorted point, but anyway, it lacks scalability and is too customized.
Finally, as the fifth point, I pointed out insider selling . CEO Alex Scaph sold off $2 billion worth of stock over the past two years . 2 billion dollars is over 3 trillion . He made a huge amount of money, which is in contrast to Tesla's Elon Musk pouring his own money into saving Tesla. They attacked, saying that even the management seems to believe the current stock price is excessive or cannot rise any further .
It was a short-selling report arguing that Palantir is still too expensive and needs to drop to $40, but the reason Palantir is still attractive is that, first of all, it has stability because it has a government agency client base, and secondly, its AI data analysis technology has already been verified by reliable large corporations across various sectors .
After turning a profit, profitability was calculated, and there is also a long-term vision for the leadership. Even Alex Karp said that we would grow more than tenfold within 10 years. However, as pointed out in the short-selling lift, the dependence on government revenue remains high. Since it involves customized tailoring, there is a disadvantage in that while it may be usable within a specific sector, it is difficult to apply what is tailored here to other areas.
Additionally, due to intensifying competition from companies like Microsoft and Datablix, it is difficult to say that valuations are cheap. We need to be aware that while this growth trend must continue, there is a downside where the stock price could plummet if it takes a sudden turn. Therefore, if we are investing in Palantir as a long-term investor, we need patience to remain unshaken by long-term volatility while grounded in its strengths and opportunities, and to do this, dollar-cost averaging is essential.
I have n't seen many successful people among those who just live by fighting. I have met hundreds of subscribers and members, but the people who look for big profits over the long term are always those who bought consistently, and when stock prices dropped significantly and people were struggling, they became a bit more ambitious.
They have these things in common. So, actually, if you are a long-term investor, you should study whether Palantir is doing well right now, and if you can make a judgment, you should buy it, happy that you can actually buy it cheaply when it drops. That is why split buying is important. Also, going all-in is always a bad idea.
In my opinion, it is appropriate to diversify and concentrate on about three or four core stocks, so I always think that going all-in is a bad idea. It is written in the holiday called Donation Psychology that it is foolish to bet everything on getting a little more excess profit . So, I am currently adopting that as my investment philosophy as well.
Anyway, the important thing is that we need to see how much more revenue growth Palantir demonstrates in the private sector in future earnings, and whether management moves in the same direction as the shareholders . So, earnings, contracts, and the absence of further insider selling will now become the key indicators for investment decisions.
In any case, Palantir is an AI company with both light and shadow, and no one knows whether the current correction is merely a breather or the beginning of a full-scale bubble burst . However, as an investor, you need to study the market, make your own judgments, and adopt a balanced approach involving dollar-cost averaging (buying and selling in installments) and diversified investment.
If we look at the target prices of these Wall Street experts—specifically those evaluated within the last three months— there are 19 rating grades: four recommend buying, 13 recommending a neutral stance, and two recommending a sell, indicating a somewhat neutral position . The expected stock price one year from now is now called the target price.
It is around $155, which is almost the same as the current stock price . So, the point is that this Palantir valuation is by no means cheap . Even experts might view it neutrally and say, "The stock price seems a bit overheated," so to overcome such Wall Street analyses or short-selling reports, you actually need to know more than they do.
As you will realize if you study it yourself, even Wall Street analysts and the people we call experts do not actually know that much about the stock. Therefore, to invest in individual stocks, you must become someone who understands them better than anyone else from various perspectives in order to make long-term investments and generate significant profits.
It is as if my longtime friends and I made huge profits from IQ, and those of you who invested with me this year probably know it much better than Wall Street or YouTubers who are newly dealing with IQ . So, what an individual possesses is not the ability to time, but time itself. Since you have that much time and the ability to invest for the long term, I believe that if you study, make sound judgments, and take your time rather than just timing, you will definitely be able to generate better investment returns than those long-term investors or the so-called experts on Wall Street.
I know this from my own experience with long-term investing; while we should adopt the logic of long-term holding, we should discard confirmation bias or falling in love with a stock. We need to create our own checklist . Has sales increased? I will create a checklist of important factors, such as whether commercial sales have increased and whether there will be no further internal stock sales by management, and decide that if a certain number of these are met, I will reduce my position or sell.
You need to try setting these things up yourselves . Many people say that if they lose money on a particular stock, it is a penny stock. However, since true investor skill lies in avoiding situations where one has to cut losses on any stock, someone who curses a stock, cuts their losses, and fails at investing is actually more likely to have lacked skill rather than the stock being a penny stock .
I believe that if you consistently accumulate solid stocks from a good price range that you won't cut your losses on from the very beginning, you are bound to make a good profit thanks to the time you have . But what is certain? When the public is terrified and stock prices have fallen significantly, this is where the rich and the poor diverge greatly.
Those who bought based on others' advice without proper research panic at this point and cut their losses . People who are well-informed and have their own investment philosophy say, "Oh, an opportunity has come," and consistently buy whenever the price drops. And if the company continues to perform well as it did, the stock price will rise again, those who cut their losses will have more opportunities, and those who had the courage to overcome their fear, trusted what they had studied, and bought will become rich.
This is history that always repeats itself. So, I hope you will study this aspect and make sound investment decisions . So, Palantir's story has been very good so far, they have done well, the CEO is good, and everything is fine, but every stock has weaknesses. So now, Palantir needs to prove that this valuation is not excessive by increasing sales with better numbers and demonstrating growth potential .
Therefore, I believe that if you invest while keeping these points in mind, you will definitely be able to achieve good investment results in Palantir as well as other stocks . I always support your long-term investment studies. If today's video was helpful, please subscribe, like, and turn on notifications. Thank you. That was the wish for me to go.
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