저자: RogerSands · 외국인
요약 보기
ULTY(YieldMax 커버드콜 ETF) 주간 업데이트. 이번 주 ULTY는 JEPI에 소폭 못 미쳤고(0.84% vs 0.95%), 마이클 버리가 매수한 메르카도리브레를 편입했다고 분석. 옵션 현금흐름은 적자이며 A-Lab·ADI 매도와 GDX 전량 매도로 분배금 재원을 마련하는 것으로 추정. 이를 아파트 임대 비유로 설명하며 ULTY 전략의 지속성에 우려를 표함.
다듬은 글
Okay, welcome everyone to the weekly Ulti portfolio update. And straight away, we're going to talk about YieldMax copying Dr. Michael Burry's trades because this week Ulti bought shares of a stock that Michael Burry likes and that he has bought, which is Mercado Libre. So, if you don't know, cuz I didn't know, I had to look it up, Mercado Libre, which translates to free market, looks to be some sort of South American Amazon or South American Alibaba, where you can just buy any product under the sun and have it shipped to you online.
If someone is watching from South America and knows about this company, please correct me if I'm making some sort of mistake there, but that's what it seems to be. They've got all sorts of things that you can buy online and send over there. So, Michael Burry, here's an an article written on May 22nd, but I think the news that he bought shares of Mercado Libre came out earlier.
In fact, let me go to Yeah, there's one that seems to be from a week ago. So, let's [snorts] say that pretty much a week ago, Michael Burry bought Mercado Libre. And this week, Ulti and YieldMax bought Mercado Libre. You can see on the 19th of this month, it was the only stock they bought. It's an expensive stock at over $1,000, $1,597.
They bought $16.7 million worth of it. So, it seems to me like they're kind of copying his trades. The the timing is almost too coincidental, but I don't know. I can't prove it. Just my suspicion. Anyways, we're going to also talk about an Ulti metaphor later in this video. So, stick around for that because it'll really help you understand why I think ULTI is potentially going to be in a lot of serious trouble.
Um has to do with their options, cash flow, and stock sales. But, stick around for that metaphor. Anyways, um let's get to the normal schedule of things. So, ULTI underperformed JEPI for the first week in a while. You know, usually JEPI was underperforming ULTI. JEPI's this blue line here. It returned 0.95% this week.
ULTI was only 0.84. So, still commendable that they were up. Um SPY returned 0.94 and the NASDAQ 1%. Remember, this is total return, so this includes the distribution. ULTI is that orange line. And as usual, it kind of does uh does worse in the first in the start of the week. It's underneath there, and then it kind of levels out, and it doesn't always beat or uh go on top.
ULTI isn't always the top line. It's usually in the middle. Um but, you do typically see this where ULTI will have the largest drawdown there. So, ULTI, little bit of underperformance against JEPI, which was surprising to see. So, let's look at the positions. We've got 23 right now. ULTI did do some sales.
We'll talk about those in a moment, but best performer today was AMD up 3.9%. Fortinet was also up 3.45%. And then, you had this kind of pretty even spread where, you know, you got some um negative returns, but not too large, and then down here uh Reddit was the worst performer down 5.58% this week.
Or excuse me, today. Let's take a look at how stocks did this week in the ULTI portfolio. Best performer this week was A Lab, Astera Labs. This one was up almost 30% this week from Monday's price of $236 all the way up to 306. And this was largely because this company Evercore ISI. I'm not familiar with it, but they had basically increased their price target on A lab.
So that let's see the price target to $297 from 215. They did that on Tuesday. Uh so A lab went way through that price target. It's now 306. So that's kind of why that was up this week. Fortinet was also up 10% and then down at the bottom Reddit, Comfort Systems, and Analog Devices were the three worst performers down around 7, 8, and 9.76%.
So let's look at the trades. And unfortunately, speaking of A lab, Ulti sold a little bit too soon. They sold on Tuesday on the 19th. They sold at $248. If they'd only waited a few more days, they could have got an extra 50 bucks or so out of that. But they collected about 7.4 million from that. This is not exiting the full position.
This is just as usual, as I suspect, they are selling off stocks to fund the distributions. That's my suspicion. Oh yeah, and they also sold on the 21st, 293. So I guess they did wait. Hmm. I stand corrected or I sit corrected. ADI, they sold some of that as well. Looks like it was about 33 million of that.
And then they completely sold out of their GDX position. So they're out of the gold miners. That was 35 million. So the net of all this, if you include the buy of Mercado Libre, is 66 million dollars that they should now have in cash or money market. Now I'm going to show you the kind of payoff chart for Mercado Libre.
Here's what they did. It's their new strategy. If you look over here, what they're doing I'm going to increase the font. But what they're doing is they're buying the shares here. They sell a call at a higher strike price. They also buy a put at a very lower strike price a $1485. Then they also sell some puts at a midpoint price to collect some more premium.
And this is what their payoff chart will look like. So, you know, they obviously adjust these options, but they could lose about 1.6 million and they could make about 1 million almost 1 million off of this trade if they just held these positions as they do now and did not adjust any options trades. So, if you want to look at it over here, they bought it at 1597.
They collect premium and this is their their short call, so the call that they sold at 1675. They then buy protection at the downside at 1485 and then they're collecting some more premium at 1545 and they for the protection down here in the middle they've doubled the number of contracts to 210. So, they're basically buying more protection than is necessary spending more and to fund some of that, you know, they they sell this short put as well.
So, that's kind of part of their new ratio options trading strategy that they introduced during the prospectus change in December. Now, we always talk about options cash flow and I usually have this cash flow sign here. We've got May cash flow down 36 million, but what I wanted to show you now was this apartment building, this brand new apartment building that is a nice metaphor for Ulti's new strategy.
And what I mean by that is this. You can see that Ulti uh has negative options cash flow, according to my calculations. Pretty sure I'm right about this. And you can see that they sell a lot of their stock. So, imagine Ulti is a brand new apartment building. And let's say they've got all the units um occupied.
So, they're doing well with their cash flow cuz they're collecting rent. And now let's say the value of this apartment building goes up. But as the value of the apartment building goes up, some of the tenants leave. And so, that represents kind of loss of rental income. And then the apartment building keeps going up in value.
And then even more tenants leave. So again, they're losing rent money, but the value of the building on paper is going up. And so, the owners of the apartment building, YieldMax, realize that they have to, you know, pay out a distribution to the uh to the shareholders of this apartment building. Whoever those are going to be, the the true owners.
So, what YieldMax does is they sell off some of their units that are unoccupied, that are not collecting any rent. They sell just some of those units. And then they give that money back to the investors. Um and so, they keep doing that. Now, the value of the apartment building keeps going up, but because people are moving out and they're not collecting any rent, so they have negative income, they sell even more units to fund their monthly um distributions back to the investors.
And so that's kind of how I view Realty Income as it's an apartment building that keeps appreciating. It's not collecting any rent, but they can sell units to um to pay off whoever owns the apartment building. And you can see the problem there, which is eventually they're going to run out of units. Or if the apartment building stops going up in value, they won't be able to continue to sell those units.
Or if they do, they won't get as high a price for those units as they have in the past. And they really need someone to come occupy those units. They need more renters. They need more tenants to live there to pay rent to cover their their their mortgage. So in an apartment building, ideally you make money from the rent.
Yes, you can flip it, but you should only be really flipping it once, which is you know, when you sell it, not selling off portions of it. At least that's how I view it. So let me know what you guys think of this analogy, this metaphor for the Realty strategy, cuz you can see clearly that the options are not winning for them.
Um but that the stocks are and that they're selling a lot of stocks to clearly fund the distributions. Now, I want to make it clear that Realty doesn't sell the stock and then just send you back the money. What I think happens is Realty sells a stock, it sits in a money market fund, and then that money market fund is you know, your distribution.
So it's kind of recycled because they made it clear in some of their posts on X, I'll throw one up here, that they don't use stock sales to fund distributions. And even if you look at the prospectus, I'll show that as well, you can see the distributions come from three different sources. Um so not stock sales, it's kind of a technicality.
Now, let's turn to what the market thinks of OULT Y and how it's doing. So, this is the fund stats. So, as of the 21st, the net asset value declined to 852 million. Previous week is 871. So, 18.2 million kind of left the fund. Of that, 10.7 I estimate was the distribution. And the rest would have been kind of loss of assets there.
Um you know, declining value of assets because 1% um or the fund increased in share size by 1% or or share count, excuse me. More shares were created, about 300,000. So, people were buying into OULT Y this week. Oh, and then finally, we should just look at some of the profitability. We can kind of take a uh a 30,000-ft view of this.
Lumentum Holdings, um AMD, all kind of the AI stocks are doing well. They've made a lot on the gains, they've lost a lot on the options. Um they've got some good returns here. You know, 71% for Lumentum, 67 for AMD. Both could be a lot higher if they weren't trading options. And then down at the bottom, uh Astea Labs, Google, TransMedics, TransMedics was a bad trade.
Shopify and Reddit also not doing well either. And then some others that are kind of flat and in the middle. So, that is the OULT Y portfolio update, everyone. I hope you enjoyed. Again, let me know what you think of that analogy. Let me know what you think about uh YieldMax copying Michael Burry's trades.
I think it was a copy, or at least that's where they got the idea from. Nothing wrong with that, but just uh just throwing it out there. So, thanks so much for watching. See you in another video.
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