저자: BillAckman-자막인터뷰인용 · 외국인
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아크먼의 투자 5단계 원칙 소개: 미스터 마켓(단기는 투표기계, 장기는 저울), 가치 평가는 기업이 평생 창출할 현금흐름의 현재가치, 안전마진 확보, 훼손되기 어려운(undisruptable) 기업 선호(CPKC 예시), 기업공시·경영진 인터뷰 등 리서치 과정. 예시로 치폴레의 식품안전 사고 후 주가 급락 사례를 언급. 단, 특정 자산의 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
An important part of investing is avoiding losing money . If you can avoid losses and make some good profits, you can do very well over time . Billionaire investor Bill Ackman shares his secret five-step formula for successfully investing in the stock market. This simple strategy has brought Ackman and his investors billions of dollars in stock profits .
The great thing about this process is that you do n't need to have a Harvard degree, like Ackman, to implement it. You must listen to what he has to say, because it will not only make you a better investor, but it will also help you make more money. Watch the video until the end, because I personally like the fifth one on this list the most.
Now, let's get to the point . In a recent interview on the Lex Friedman Podcast, Bill Ackman explained his investment approach in a very simple way. Ackman's investment process is based on five key principles , which we discuss in this video . The first investment principle is the concept of ' Mr. Market' .
Listen to Ackman explain . You need to understand the difference between price and value. Yes? Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. And he says the stock market is there to serve you . Yes? It's like a neighbor who comes to your house every day and makes an offer . If they make a crazy offer, you ignore it.
If they make a good offer, you can take it. The stock market is the same. The key here is to know how much an item is worth. And you have to estimate it . He said the stock market is a 'voting machine' in the short term . It reflects the speculative interests of the people, demand and supply in the short term .
But in the long run, the stock market is like a ' weighing machine' . This is very accurate. It tells you how much an item is worth . So, if you can estimate the value of an item , you can benefit from the market, as it will be willing to help you . That is the main purpose of that book. As strange as it may sound , one of the biggest secrets to successfully investing in the stock market is actually to ignore the stock market completely.
Let me explain what I mean with a short story. A perfect example to illustrate this concept is to imagine that yours is the most popular restaurant in your city. Imagine what the most popular restaurant in a city looks like. Every table is always full . Guests must reserve a table a few weeks in advance to dine there .
The food is very good, so customers don't care about the price. No matter what price you set as the owner, customers will happily pay. Your restaurant has such a loyal customer base that everyone in town knows and loves it. It has become an important part of that society . Suddenly, you start getting messages from a person you've never met, offering to buy your restaurant.
Every second between 9:30 am and 4:00 pm, Monday through Friday, this person will message you with how much they can pay . The price increases and decreases every second depending on the person's mood . As an owner, would you determine the value of your restaurant based on the prices offered by such an unstable buyer ?
Absolutely not. You block that stranger who tries to influence you about how much your business is worth . Instead, they assess the value of your business by looking at the quality of your business and how much cash it generates . Value investors like Ackman say the same logic should be applied to the stock market.
Ignore short-term changes in stock prices and focus on the fundamentals of the business in which the stock you own is a part. As legendary investor Warren Buffett says , only buy what you are willing to hold, even if the stock market is closed for 10 years . Currently, Ackman says he learned everything he knows about investing from Warren Buffett.
We've compiled Warren Buffett's investment checklist into a PDF so you too can invest using the process of investors like Buffett and Ackman . To get a free copy, see the link in the description. Anyway, let's get back to the Ackman thing . The next item on his list was how to calculate stock value .
Listen to Ackman's explanation. The value of a security is the current value of the cash you can receive from it over its lifetime. So, if you think about a bond, your bond pays a 5% coupon interest rate . You will receive it in half and half, once or twice a year. And that's very predictable. If it's a US government bond, you'll definitely get it .
So, it is very easy to calculate its value. Stock is a share in a business . It's like owning a part of a company . A profitable business is like a bond because it generates coupons, earnings, or cash flow every year . The difference between a stock and a bond is that a bond is a contract. You will know in advance how much you will receive unless the company goes bankrupt and stops making payments .
As for the stock , you need to make predictions about that business . You need to know how many items will be sold this year and how many will be sold next year . You should know how much the costs will be? How much of the money they earn should be reinvested to keep the business going ? This is a very complicated matter.
What we do is look for businesses that we can say with high confidence what their cash flows will be over a long period of time. Businesses with such high certainty are rare . As a result, many investments become mere speculations, as the future is very difficult to predict . So, what we do , which is what I do for a living , is look for rare companies that we can predict will be around for a long time .
As Ackman says , the value of a stock is based on the cash that the business will give you as an owner over its lifetime , discounted to its present value . While this may sound like a complex concept , it is actually quite simple. Let's see how this works in practice. Let's say you have a stock that pays $5 in cash every year for 10 years.
At the end of year 10, you can sell that stock for 10 times the $ 5 cash it generates . That is, 50 dollars. Now you have an estimate of how much cash that stock will generate . The next step is to convert these future cash flows to present value using an interest rate, i.e., a discount rate . The reason we do this is the concept of 'time value of money' .
Accordingly, a dollar received today is worth more to you than a dollar received at some point in the future. Here is a simple idea that perfectly illustrates the concept of Time Value of Money. If you had the option to give yourself $1,000 today or $ 1,000 in 10 years , which would you choose? Sure, you choose to take that money today .
That is why in our example, to determine the value of the stock, we need to discount the future cash flows to their present value. Let's say we are using a discount rate of 7% . This gives us a stock value of $60.64. Now, there is an important caveat to this example . As Ackman mentions in the clip , it's very difficult to predict a company's cash flow years in advance .
That's why Ackman's stock portfolio is heavily focused on what he calls simple and predictable businesses . Companies such as the Canadian Pacific Kansas City Railroad, hotel company Hilton, and restaurant franchisor Restaurant Brands International. It is the parent company of popular North American restaurant brands such as Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes.
So, now that we know how to calculate stock value , that leads to the next item on the list, which is the concept of 'margin of safety' . Ackman is here to explain this . You can't accurately estimate the value. You can only get an approximate value . The important thing is to buy the stock at a price below that estimate.
This brings us back to Ben Graham . Ben Graham invented the concept of ' margin of safety' . Yes, right? If you want to buy a company, even if it's 30% below your expected value, you shouldn't have any losses because you bought it at a low enough price . The main purpose of investing is to avoid losing money .
If you avoid losing money and make some great investments, you can achieve very good results over time . Before Ben Graham introduced the concept of 'margin of safety' to the investment world, it had existed in the field of engineering for centuries . Imagine you are building a bridge over a body of water .
You would estimate that there would only be a maximum of 100 cars on that bridge at one time . Logically , it makes sense to design the bridge with a capacity to carry only 100 cars , because according to your calculations, there wo n't be more cars than that. However, using the ' margin of safety' , you would need to design the bridge to carry 200 cars , which is double your estimated capacity .
This will protect you if your guess turns out to be wrong. In engineering , a 'margin of safety' helps prevent mistakes that could lead to very serious and costly consequences. It has the same effect in the investment sector as well . Going back to the example we saw earlier , we concluded that the stock was worth $60.54.
Ideally, we want to buy a stock when it is priced below its estimated value . This protects us if we misjudge the value of the stock . For this example, let's assume the stock is trading at $30 per share. This difference between our estimated intrinsic value and the current trading price is our ' margin of safety'.
This margin of safety protects us from losing money if our estimate of the company's value turns out to be wrong. Let 's take a look at the example we saw earlier. The value of approximately $60 per share is based on our estimate that the stock will generate $5 per share in cash each year . For this example, let's say a new competitor enters the market and hurts the company's profitability .
Instead of $5 in cash annually , it has dropped to just $4. As we can see here , the stock value dropped from $60.54 to $48.43 , which is a decrease of approximately 20% . However, notice, that new reduced stock price is still more than the $30 we bought it for. This is the beauty of the concept of margin of safety and why it is so important for successful investing .
If there is a margin of safety, you can still profit even if you make a mistake. To have a margin of safety, you first need to be able to estimate the value of a company . However, as Ackman explains , it is not possible to estimate the value of every company with precision . So, what are the things that make a company make a lot of money , have good value, and be reliable over the long term ?
What is your process for determining whether a company is like that ? Every consumer has an opinion towards different brands and different companies . And, what we look for is for businesses that no one can damage or change. Any business, you have to have faith that even if you close your eyes and the stock market closes for ten years, it will still be a more valuable, more profitable company 10 years later.
As we discussed earlier , to estimate the value of a stock , you need to be able to understand with a relatively high degree of confidence what the company's future profitability will be . In the case of most companies, this is not possible. And this is even more true for fast- growing technology companies .
Fields like technology are changing rapidly. Today's winners can easily become tomorrow's losers, displaced by fast-growing, innovative startups. Compare that to a railroad company like Canadian Pacific Kansas City, or CPKC for short. Ackman's fund, Pershing Square, owns $ 1.2 billion worth of stock in the company .
The CPKC is the only railroad with tracks connecting Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The history of this railroad dates back to 1881. Over the next nearly 150 years, numerous mergers and acquisitions led CPKC to expand the breadth of its rail lines across the continent . This century- old process culminated in 2021 , when Canadian Pacific, with its rail network shown here in red , acquired Kansas City Southern, shown here in black .
This combination created the only railroad that could move goods between Canada and Mexico . It truly took generations to build this rail system . Even if you give smart, hard-working entrepreneurs tens of billions of dollars, they won't be able to replicate this . Ackman calls CPKC an undisruptable business .
The simple, relatively predictable nature of this business, combined with its long-term competitive advantage, allows you to predict what this business will look like in 10, 15, or even 20 years . These are businesses that can be valued with relatively high confidence. Now, at this point in the video , you might be thinking, " Okay, that's all well and good , but how do I find a business like CPKC or Hilton or Restaurant Brands International or Chipotle?" Now that you know what you're looking for , what exactly will you do to find it ?
This leads to the fifth and final item on Ackman's list , which is the research process. Here, Ackman is going to explain how he finds such great investments . What is the actual process you follow? That is, literally, the process of knowing the value of a company. So how do you do research? Yes. Is that reading documents?
Talking to people? How do you do that? All of them together. So, Chipotle, what initially attracted us was its stock price dropping by about 50%. Great company, great concept. That means consumers , you know , athletes love it, consumers love it. Healthy, sustainable, fresh food prepared right before your eyes.
And, you know, the great entrepreneur Steve Ells did an amazing job. But in the end, there was a lack of some systems in the company and a food safety issue arose. Consumers got sick, and it almost damaged the brand. But the reality in the fast food quick service industry is that almost every fast food company will encounter a food safety issue at some point.
And the majority of companies have survived this. And we thought, " Look, this is a really great concept." But you know their approach is not that good , it is far from ideal . But we usually start by reading SEC filings . So, companies file a 10-K, or annual report , and they file quarterly reports called 10-Qs .
They include a proxy statement explaining governance and board structure . Conference call transcripts are publicly available. It's very useful to go back five years and know that story . See how management describes their business. Here's what they say they'll do , and then you can watch what they do.
This is like a historical record of how capable and honest they are . This is a very useful device. And actually looking at competitors and thinking about who or what could hurt this company . And if it's an industry we're not familiar with, we'll talk to them, we know the restaurant industry very well.
If it's the music industry, we'll talk to people in that industry. Let's try to understand the difference between publishing and recorded music . We look at the competitors. We read books. I read a book about the music industry, and a few books about that industry . So it's like a big research project .
And now there are these networks of experts , you can reach almost anyone on the phone . They will talk to you about a topic in the industry that you don't understand or want to learn more about. Companies' public filings usually provide a lot of information but not everything you want to know. You can learn more about industry dynamics and people by talking to experts .
You want to gain an understanding of management . I love watching podcasts, if a CEO does a podcast or YouTube interview , you can get a sense of their personality. One of the most powerful resources individuals have for researching a stock is that company's investor relations website. Almost every publicly listed company has this , but some websites are much better than the rest.
Just type in the company name and then search for Investor Relations, and it will take you directly there . Let 's do that in the case of Chipotle. On the Chipotle Investor Relations site, we can view recent events such as news releases, presentations, SEC filings, and earnings calls. One of the best resources to learn about a company is its annual report.
An annual report is a corporate document distributed to shareholders that describes the company's financial condition and activities for the past year. Think of it as an introduction to the company for new investors. Let 's take Chipotle as an example. With Chipotle you can learn about that business and its strategy .
In the strategy section, you can see that opening new centers in the US and abroad is a key component of the company's strategy and is an area where management is focused. You can also see that the company has a separate division for its digital business, which shows how important it is to Chipotle .
As you can see here , Chipotle seems to see digital and app ordering and the use of third-party delivery platforms as "a strategic driver of growth ." Not only that , there is much more. You can also get very fine-grained details about the financial performance of the business . For example, we can see the income details for the year 2023 here.
We can see that the average Chipotle restaurant generated $3 million in revenue in 2023 , up from $ 2.8 million the previous year . We can also see that revenue increased by 7.9% in stores that have been open for at least a year. The real point here is that this annual report breaks down revenue growth by the number of transactions and the average value of each transaction .
Transactions increased by 5% and the average transaction amount increased by 2.9% . All of this information is very important for investors interested in buying Chipotle stock. When it comes to stock research, this is just the tip of the iceberg . A whole series of videos could be created on this topic alone .
Let's recall five key elements of Ackman's investment process . First, Mr. Market. Remember that the value of a hypothetical restaurant you own depends on how much cash it generates, not on the mood swings of a random person looking to buy it from you . The second is how to evaluate the stock . When determining the value of something , remember that cash flow is what matters .
The third is the concept of ' margin of safety' . When building a bridge , build it to carry more weight than you think is necessary . Fourth, the factors that make a company valuable . Look for businesses that are undisruptable. Look at a company like CPKC, notice how it took 150 years to build its rail network .
Fifth, the research process. If you are buying a business outright , focus on the important things you want to know . If you liked this video , it means you are very serious and dedicated to learning from legendary investors like Bill Ackman . If so , be sure to watch this video where Warren Buffett explains how to make more profits with less money , as it explains very well how to invest successfully.
This video has already received 250,000 views , so you definitely don't want to miss it. Let's meet there.
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