저자: DanIves · 외국인
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나스닥은 올해 말 16,000까지 갈 것이며 지금의 조정은 상승의 첫 단계라는 전망. 시장 흐름: 최근 몇 달간 로테이션 트레이드가 있었지만 어닝 시즌(넷플릭스 등)을 거치며 기술주가 주도해 올해 기술주는 25% 이상 추가 상승할 것으로 봄. 리오프닝 수혜(항공·호텔 등)도 있으나 기술이 핵심. 니콜라: 목표가를 13달러로 낮추고 중립 유지. 하이프가 빠져야 하며 최근 6개월은 악몽이었다고 평가. 실행력(애리조나 공장, 프로토타입)이 관건이며 일정이 밀릴 수 있다고 봄. 테슬라·중국 전기차 기업(엑스펑, 니오 등)이 OEM 투자의 더 나은 대안이라고 언급. 테슬라: 중국에서 점유율을 계속 확대 중이며 중국 사고 관련 잡음은 계속되겠지만 실적 성장 스토리는 유효. 자율주행 안전 절차 조사가 남아 있다고 봄. 넷플릭스: 국제 성장이 핵심이었고 성장 둔화는 있겠지만 가격 인상과 콘텐츠 경쟁력으로 선두 유지 전망. 디즈니가 가장 근접한 경쟁자라고 봄. 애플: 스트리밍에서는 콘텐츠가 부족해 뒤처져 있으며 대형 인수(영화 스튜디오 등) 가능성을 언급. 전기차 진출은 '언제냐'의 문제이며 폭스바겐과 파트너십 가능성, 2024년 차량 출시 전망. 출연자 전망: 기술 주도 랠리 지속, 나스닥 16,000 목표. 단기적으로는 어닝 전까지 변동성이 있을 것이라 봄.
다듬은 글
don ives managing director equity research web bush securities good morning don and thank you so much for joining us great to be here thanks don i'd like to um kick off with a very brief comment on that trading session what's driving the price action in your opinion we do see stocks flat to negative today after a modest pullback that we saw yesterday look i think this is going to continue to be some volatility until we get into earnings obviously netflix coming out you have tech earnings over the next week we think it's going to be bullish i mean ultimately i think nasdaq 16 000 end of the year i think this is the first step higher even though there's been this rotation trade that we've seen play out the last few months all right um you've just mentioned earnings we're going to be there in a very well certainly one of the most important companies that are reporting data after the bell is netflix but first of all um i just wanted to show very quickly um yesterday your report a wet bush lowering nicholas price target to 13 and maintains neutral rating so can you walk us through the details look we've been cautious on nikola just given i think some of the hype needs to come out of the story and really it's been a nightmare the last six months since trevor as well as some of the other issues have come about you know i think when you look at ev it's a green tidal wave and i think many of these names are going to go higher but for nicola it's about execution and i think some of those timetables could get pushed out is our thoughts that's why we lowered the target continue to be cautious on the name but no doubt it's a prove me story here and obviously i continue to view tesla as well as the chinese plays like x ping neo and others is really the best ways to play the oem space right now in ebay so do you think that nicola might compete with tesla because you've always been extremely bullish with with ev exactly and hydrogen as you've mentioned here uh but i was wondering do you think there might compete in the medium to long term look down the road when it comes to trucking that's going to be that so that tesla is focused on but also there's a lot of other players focused on that as well hides on motors as well as a few others and i think for nikola right now it's really about building out that factory in arizona and coming out prototypes i still think the vision could be successful we just tend to be more cautious there and and time's ticking because ultimately tesla and others are continuing to go after this market especially on the hydrogen side there's number of players in europe so let's move very quickly to the earnings season we did see um data from j procter gamble a lockheed martin which by the way posted um revenues slightly below expectations but except from um airlines united airlines which lost seven point fifty dollars per share we did see j j procter gamble and specifically the banks last week uh definitely beating estimates so do you think that companies are doing great job or just estimates are too low at this point this is the new normal i think it's a combination i think you're going to see beat and raised numbers across the board led by tech i think part of its streets underestimated maybe the piece of this comeback that we're seeing as well as the reopening in terms of the roaring 20s trade of course bangs hotels uh airlines and others you know could definitely see a benefit in terms of the rotation but we believe tac continues to be the main player i think tech stocks are up another 25 plus this year and i think it all starts with earnings which netflix will kick off tonight exactly so let's talk about netflix simply what are your expectations and then we're going to delve deeper into the streaming world which has been extremely interesting in the past 12 months but first of all expectations and numbers they continue to own the market international growth's been the key and of course in this remote environment that that's really pulled forward growth not just for netflix but disney amazon as well as others and and of course you'll see some moderation of growth but but ultimately i think the story continues to play out pricing increase have been key and i think right now the big focus is are there going to be all winners because ultimately someone's a loser in this and i think the big focus is as more and more competition comes in it all comes down to content content king and netflix continues to be top of the heap so when it comes to the streaming were of course big media kind of transitioned their aging television focus businesses to focus on subscription streaming subscriptions streaming services instead do you think that there is any company that actually might compete with netflix because it looks like it's doing way better even compared to amazon prime which is how can i say that the closest one i think disney is really the one i mean they've they've come at the gates it's been massive in terms of the subscriber numbers years ahead of even what the balls start but we believe apple 2 will continue to have more success for apple it's really about adding more content which ultimately we believe they they buy a movie studio over the next six to 12 months but but no doubt right now it's an arms race and streaming and you know that's something that's not slowing down i think we're going to see across tac earnings not just from the consumer but from the enterprise front is that this digital transformation on the consumer and enterprise is just starting to play out two trillion of spending over the next three to four years so so do you think apple might become a one of the major actors also when it comes to streaming services because so far it looks like despite the money that it it has invested it looks like that it's kind of lagging oh they relate to the game they lack content i mean that's the continued issue they have that moot in cupertino but no doubt i think something that apple has lacked is content that's why i think what you're seeing too i think later today that they'll probably announce a podcasting premium service it's all about services for apple and i think when it comes to on the streaming side i believe they're going to be a lot more aggressive in terms of what i believe is a larger acquisition alliance gain a24 attention mgm in terms of what they go after and and what about a possible ev entrance i think it's a matter of when not if they that they focus on ev you know we believe the most likely partner on the ev would be volkswagen in terms of how that fits they could also have supplier partnerships and and we believe apple has an eevee car by 2024 on the road and i think over the next card three six months they lay out division with more details for this just like we've seen in china i mean we're talking about five trillion dollar mark in terms of green tidal wave and apple's not going to watch us from the outside looking in well that's very interesting um i just want to take a step back and and get back to tesla which is um kind of calling back some gains 2.15 higher today but what happened yesterday was extremely important also because china is one of the most important markets for the companies for the company so do you think after what happened after the incident um anything will change for the company in terms of reputation or even your assessment and no doubt i mean china is a continued part of the tesla success story and you're going to continue to see noise around those issues by the end of the day they're gaining more and more share especially on the high end of the market from an ev perspective and you're really starting to see ev's spike in terms of demand and that also helps domestic players like neo x ping lee auto and others in terms of what we're seeing in terms of the tragic crash and there's still a lot of things that need to be figured out in terms of the investigation because they do have safety procedures in place where a driver does have to be um behind the wheel after 10 seconds ultimately that would shut off in terms of you know any sort of autonomous so there's a lot of and right now more questions and answers you saw must tweet last night and they gave investors some confidence here but this is going to be a rubik's cube that they're going to figure out certainly it's extremely interesting in any case we're going to be following the developments thank you very much don ives managing director equity of research web boost securities thank you for joining us and have a great day ahead you too
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