저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 스트리밍 경쟁 심화 속에서도 디즈니는 강세를 유지하고, 기술주는 조정을 겪었지만 장기 상승 사이클은 계속된다고 주장. 스트리밍: 스트리밍 경쟁은 군비 경쟁 성격으로, 넷플릭스 독주 시기 이후 여러 경쟁자가 등장해 경쟁이 더 치열해질 전망. 디즈니는 코로나 기간 큰 성장을 보였고 가입자 목표를 약 3년 앞당겨 달성, 콘텐츠 측면에서 넷플릭스와 경쟁할 첫 번째 기업으로 평가. 비트코인·테슬라: 머스크의 비트코인 결제 중단 발표는 환경 문제를 이유로 들었으나 3개월간 입장이 바뀌지 않은 상황이라 투자자들에게 혼란과 좌절을 줌. 테슬라는 비트코인 매입(약 15억 달러)으로 지난해 차량 판매보다 비트코인 이익이 컸으며, 비트코인이 횡보하면 테슬라에도 영향이 있을 수 있음. 현재 비트코인 약 5만 달러 수준이며 이 수준 하회 시 중요한 의미. 기술주: 나스닥은 연초 대비 약 2.84% 상승했으나 최근 며칠간 크게 밀림. 인플레이션 우려로 위험자산이 매도되는 상황. 전망: 기술주 강세론 유지, 클라우드·사이버보안·FANG 등에서 디지털 전환이 아직 중반부라고 판단. 하반기 기술주 15% 상승 전망. 멀티플은 재평가될 것으로 기대. 아크 인베스트 등 ARK 펀드는 약 15% 하락한 상태이며, 테슬라 고점 대비 조정은 변동성 확대의 일부로 봄. 지금은 기술주 강세론을 포기할 때가 아니라고 강조.
다듬은 글
don i'd like to hear your take on on the streaming word which is definitely heating up we saw these results and we saw netflix results and it looks that the streaming boom that defined hollywood during the cave nighting is slowing down or at least for now what's your take yeah it's a streaming arms race right and we've seen that disney has obviously had a huge step in terms of what they mean in terms of progress during the pandemic but but you'll start to see that moderate and that's what we're seeing but also that's going to be more of an arms race trying to get market share internationally especially of course not when netflix was top of the heap but you got disney you got all these other sort of fragmented players coming out and i think that is ultimately going to be more competition going forward and that's what the street's looking at they're looking at not necessarily this quarter but on the other side of the horizon so do you think it it might be able to compete with netflix in the medium to long term because it has pretty ambitious targets from what we saw in terms of subscribers of course well disney has come out of the gate just robust and of course where if you look at covid it's giving them a huge lift that no one ever thought but i mean they're basically three years ahead of their targets and i think that's the from a content perspective the first one that could really compete with netflix and it's shaking up the competitive landscape so another hot topic is definitely elon musk and everything he brings to cryptocurrencies specifically to the bitcoin i just wanted to show you very quickly um his final tweets of course we in regards to the dogecoin but first of all of course let's get back very quickly to the cryptocurrencies the ceo made a surprise announcement that his electric car firm would stop accepting bitcoin its payment due to concerns over its environmental impact so then what i wonder of course it had a major impact on the bitcoin in the past 48 hours so i was wondering wasn't he how can i say aware of the environmental impact previously because it's too surprising i mean i was aware of it everyone was it's like me going into a pizza place and being surprised at their sauce and cheese on the slice of pizza and i think that look that's the frustration because that didn't change in the last three months in terms of nature crypto mining you know and this has really been a very frustrating situation for crypto investors i mean musk is the biggest proponent of crypto and for three months to sort of do a u-turn on transactions it's been not just confusing i think frustrating among many and i think it's also added to the noise in the tesla story at a time where risk assets are being sold in a surge of selling inflation worries it's not what investors want to see with with this sideshow that's now really start to overshadow the story so currently the bitcoin is trading at about fifty dollars fifty dollars so if if it was supposed to get below this level which is extremely important level do you believe there might be any kind of impact on tesla because we saw in the final quarter that thanks to the bitcoin there was a huge or at least significant impact on the top and bottom line yeah i mean if you think about the bitcoin billion and a half that they bought i mean they made more profit on bitcoin than they did selling cars last year so i think what you're starting to see here is just more and more focus in the core ev market with tesla you know especially with bitcoin now sort of in a standstill in terms of what we're seeing from a tesla situation i was wondering are you still so bullish on the tech sector fangs and of course tesla included um after the inflation dated the ppi and the cpi do you think there is going to be a huge impact in the medium to long-term see still the nasdaq up about 2.84 percent year to date which is certainly extremely positive but it lost a lot of a lot of space in the past few days no doubt i mean look you've seen a risk off inflation worries and obviously this has been a painful sell-off and i think it's hit at an accelerated pace that i think many it's caught many off guard but our bullish thesis on tac you know which has really been the last decade uh we still believe this is in the middle endings of playing out in terms of the transformation in terms of two trillion of the digital transformation in terms of playing cloud cyber security fang i still think these multiples start to re-read on the other side i think tech's up second half of the year 15 percent you know to us this is not the time to throw in the white towel it's our view that we're still in the middle innings of a massive bull rally for tac no doubts it's been a bit of a white knuckle period but you know we continue to be steadfastly bullish on tech despite obviously a lot of the skeptics heading for the elevators so do you agree with cattywood i mean so you you think like despite by the way arc investment have fallen i believe or has fallen at least 15 around look uh i mean when tesla is up 700 percent right everyone's drinking champagne thinking they're the best stock picker when all of a sudden it's down you know 20 percent i mean that's really what rubber meets the road right and i think you know you're gonna see see enhanced volatility here in tech and that's what we're seeing but when i look at the growth you know some could argue okay multiples are well above historical norms look it was i mean our valuations in tech grew 50 plus last year but they've contracted about 37 percent so far this year but growth is three to four x of what we've ever seen so that's why i continue to view something that's covered tax since late 90s you know the transformational growth that we're seeing is unparalleled so i don't because we're going through this inflationary period view it is this is the time where the tactful story ends all right this is very interesting thank you very much dan i've seen equity managing director equity research whiteboard securities have a great weekend done you too you
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