저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 MS의 액티비전 인수를 장기적으로 긍정적으로 평가하며, 클라우드 지출 확대로 MS가 유리하다고 봄. 기술주 조정 국면이지만 실적 시즌이 반등 촉매가 될 것이라 전망. 마이크로소프트: 액티비전 인수는 콘솔·메타버스·스트리밍 전략에 유리하고, 규제·법적 리스크는 감당 가능하다고 판단. 클라우드 지출 확대(향후 4~5년간 약 1조 달러)로 포지션이 강하며, 소비자 사업 재평가 시 시총 3조 달러 도달 가능성 언급. 넷플릭스: 실적 발표 전 기술주 전반의 리스크오프 분위기 속에서 발표가 중요한 촉매라고 봄. 스트리밍 성장은 다소 둔화될 수 있으나 콘텐츠 경쟁으로 구독 성장은 이어질 것으로 전망. 가격 인상에도 해지가 많지 않다고 평가. 경쟁 구도: 디즈니, 아마존, 애플이 라이브 스포츠 중계권을 두고 경쟁하며 스트리밍 업체와 기존 미디어 간 입찰 경쟁이 주목 대상이라고 언급. 시장 전망: 연준 긴축과 10년물 금리 상승이 있어도 기술주 장기 강세론은 유효하다고 주장. 현 조정을 매수 기회로 보며, 소프트웨어·사이버보안·애플·마이크로소프트 등 승자 종목 매수를 권고. 3~4주 뒤 기술주가 5~7% 오를 수 있다고 전망.
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don ives managing director equity research web bush securities done good morning thank you so much for joining us great to be here so then i would like to hear a first take on this uh major deal probably the most important one in terms of costs for microsoft so far and and also you by the way uh mentioned microsoft is one of your top 10 picks for 2022 so so do you think anything changes with this major acquisition look i think ultimately more bullish after the deal because from microsoft the cloud strategy the enterprise they've been in a massive position of strength but the consumer strategy and nadella was well aware of this it's been on a treadmill for the last decade activision fell into their lap stocks been under massive pressure this is the right acquisition at the right time i won't say they got necessarily a steal but no doubt they're not acquiring activision if they don't have those issues and i think this is something that could really propel their consumer streaming and even metaverse strategy yeah the in terms of strategy this is important on the other side it's taking so much in a company facing investigation internal and external unrest and unknown liabilities how do you explain that look i mean they're focused on call of duty and the franchises that are basically globally golden brands in terms of a lot of the issues we've seen with activision microsoft will clear the decks they'll get you know so i'm not too worried about that culturally and they've handled things like that before and i think investors are really focused on them integrating that into their consumer flywheel and any of those other issues i think microsoft could clearly handle and i think they recognized that they they knew that there was going to be more scrutiny and also anti-trust scrutiny but they feel it's a deal they could get done and i think he even saw the reaction from the street i mean most investors i've talked to view this as bullish step in the right direction on the consumer side so so do you think that um there would be it will be reasonable to increase your target price in microsoft look i think right now in this risk off multiple that we're seeing across tech in a in a fed tightening environment you're seeing all the stock sell off but but i believe microsoft when you look at the cloud and where we are trillion dollars cloud spending over the next four to five years i think microsoft's in pole position there i think the consumer business gets re-rated and i think going into next year you know this is one that's going to be on that sort of march of 3 trillion mark cap and and then of course i just wanted to show you very quickly the tech sector which got hammered in these past few days specifically netflix yesterday off about three percent and of course netflix kicking off earnings season tax earnings season by the way tomorrow after the bell and setting the pace for 2022 streaming words so i was wondering what are your expectations in terms of netflix numbers and specifically what are you going to be looking for i mean probably subscription numbers numbers in the u.s numbers in europe or anywhere look i mean right now i'd say it's the most important tech earnings season we've had in many years because in the lack of fundamental news it's all fed tightening 10-year macro risk off netflix kicks it off and i'm expecting strong earnings across the board for tech and i think what you're seeing with netflix you'll see some moderation of growth in streaming especially coming out in some sort of semi-normal environment but these streaming arms race i mean this is not going to slow down and netflix continues to see accelerated sub growth along with disney and along with others with apple and others sort of chasing them and i think this is going to set off attack into a positive tone i believe we sit here three to four weeks from now tech stocks are up five seven percent nest this is off about 13 on a monthly basis and off about five and a half percent on a weekly basis in case of negative results in terms of subscription numbers what are your expectations in regards to market reaction look i think it's one on a name like this you always have that knee-jerk reaction after the quarter i think as it gets digested more investors want to own the secular winners in tech and i still think fang names overall are up another 20 25 this year now and i think it's one it will get microanalyzed in terms of accelerated spending you know especially in this broader inflationary backdrop but i think what you're seeing from a subscriber growth i mean netflix is raising prices and i don't see too many uh customers canceling and i think it just shows what we're seeing it's all about content and that's where they sit at the top of the mountain and who do you think are going to be their major competitors in in terms of streaming words look disney clearly has put themselves in into entrenched competitor amazon as well i now the quest big questions about live sports content i mean amazon bid on the you know in the nfl and the thursday night package now there's a lot of questions about apple i believe apple is going to spend billions in live sports programs both from major league baseball nfl and then a lot of ncaa college and i think other sports around the world i think that's going to be something we'll see apple i think we'll see more amazon potentially netflix and others i think that's going to be a real leisure focus right now in terms of live sports programming to see how the streaming players bid against the entrenched media players done final take on tech stocks um so certainly the selling accelerated in the past few days do you think we have to buy the dip many yelling fire in a crowded theater fed tightening this is it the tech party's done i i've heard it for the last decade and even in an inflationary environment fed tightening a to 100 bit move in the ten year doesn't change our you know decade long bull thesis and tech i'd be buying the winners in tech you need a basket combo value growth themes software cyber security apple microsoft among others and i i view this as sort of tech earnings season's gonna be a positive catalyst for the sector thank you very much as always dan ives managing director equity research web boost securities thank you dan have a great day ahead
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